Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for September 12. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Saturday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Saturday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Ian Seymour Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+118) vs. Astros
Astros at Rays – 6:10 pm ET
Seymour didn’t come through the last time I took him, but the plus-money odds here are hard to pass up. Prior to his two-strikeout outing on September 6, Seymour had at least seven strikeouts in five of his previous six starts. And even with the low total last time out, he’s averaging 6.8 strikeouts over his last 14 starts.
Kyle Leahy Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-150 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeout 4+ (+138 – 0.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 5+ (+300 – 0.25 units)
White Sox at Cardinals – 7:15 pm ET
Leahy doesn’t work deep in his starts, but he misses bats while he’s out there. Leahy has had at least three strikeouts in 14 of his last 15 starts, and he has had at least four strikeouts in 11 of them. So, facing an offense that does occasionally struggle to make contact, I trust him to go Over here. I’m also playing alternates up to five, as he has had at least five strikeouts in five of his last eight starts.
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) vs. Athletics
Mariners at Athletics – 9:40 pm ET
This has the potential to be a very high-scoring game, so give me Arozarena to reach two total bases. The righty hits at the top of the order for the Mariners, and tonight he’ll be doing so against a left-handed pitcher, in a very hitter-friendly environment. This year, Arozarena is averaging 2.0 total bases per game against southpaws, and that goes up to 2.3 per game in conditions that favor hitters.
Additional Picks
Paul Skenes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+118) vs. Cubs
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+104) vs. Padres
Andrew Alvarez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+116) vs. Angels
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Paul Skenes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+102) vs. Cubs
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 7.41 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -298 — a +25.4% edge to the Over.
David Fry Over 0.5 Hits + Run + RBIs (-145) vs. Twins
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.79 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -500 — a +24.1% edge to the Over.
Brett Baty Over 0.5 Hits + Run + RBIs (-121) vs. Yankees
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.55 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -371 — a +24.0% edge to the Over.
