Today we have a loaded Week 3 College Football Saturday with over 100-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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12 p.m. ET: LSU (-6, 48) at South Carolina

LSU (1-1, ranked 16th) just took down Nicholls 44-21 last week but failed to cover as 46.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, South Carolina (2-0) just crushed Kentucky 31-6, winning outright as 9.5-point road dogs. This line opened with LSU listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with LSU, who has the better ranking. However, despite receiving 71% of spread bets we’ve seen LSU fall from -7.5 to -6. This signals sharp reverse line movement on South Carolina, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side. South Carolina is only receiving 29% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet games of the day, providing notable contrarian value. The Gamecocks have additional value as a buy-low unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Unranked teams are 16-11 ATS (59%) with a 15% ROI against ranked teams so far this season. South Carolina also has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the game getting points. Wiseguys have hit the under as well, dropping the total from 51.5 to 48. This downward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (68% of bets), yet the total fell.

3:30 p.m. ET: Notre Dame (-7.5, 47) at Purdue

Notre Dame (1-1, ranked 18th) just suffered a shocking 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois, losing outright as 28-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Purdue (1-0) has only played one game so far this year, crushing Indiana State 49-0 and easily covering as 35-point home favorites. This line opened with Notre Dame listed as a 12.5-point road favorite. The public expects the Fighting Irish to get back on track and 66% of spread bets are laying the road chalk with Notre Dame. However, despite receiving two-thirds of bets we’ve seen Notre Dame fall from -12.5 to -7.5. This indicates smart money grabbing the points with home dog Purdue, triggering massive reverse line movement in their direction. The movement toward Purdue has been consistent throughout the week, with zero buyback on Notre Dame. The Boilermakers are only receiving 34% of spread bets, providing heightened “bet against the public” value in one of the most heavily bet late afternoon games. Unranked teams against ranked opponents are 16-11 ATS (59%) with a 15% ROI this season. Purdue also enjoys a rest advantage, as the Boilermakers are coming off a bye while Notre Dame played last week.

3:30 p.m. ET: West Virginia (-2, 62) at Pittsburgh

West Virginia (1-1) is coming off a 49-14 drubbing of Albany but failed to cover as 38.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Pittsburgh (2-0) just took down Cincinnati 28-27, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with West Virginia listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Some books opened even higher at West Virginia -4.5. Regardless of the opening price, the public is happy to lay the short chalk with West Virginia on the road. However, despite receiving 60% of spread bets we’ve seen the Mountaineers fall to -2. Some shops are even as low as Mountaineers -1.5. This indicates smart money grabbing the points with Pittsburgh at home, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the number in favor of the Panthers despite being the unpopular bet. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game, as the total has risen from 59.5 to 62. This movement is notable because 72% of bets are taking the under, yet the total rose. This indicates a rare sharp contrarian over opportunity. The over is receiving 28% of bets but 46% of dollars, a wiseguy bet split.

7:30 p.m. ET: UCF at TCU (-2.5, 62.5)

UCF (2-0) just crushed Sam Houston 45-14 last week, easily covering as 21.5-point home favorites. Similarly, TCU (2-0) just demolished Long Island 45-0 but failed to cover as 45.5-point home favorites. This line opened with TCU listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched, undefeated teams is happy to grab the points with road dog UCF. Early in the week, we saw the line flip to UCF -2.5. However, since that time its been nothing but sharp buyback on TCU, with the Horned Frogs flipping back to a 2.5-point home favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on TCU, as the line has moved in their direction off the opener despite being the unpopular side. TCU is only receiving 35% of spread bets, offering notable contrarian value in a heavily bet primetime game. Those looking to follow the sharp line move but wary of laying the points in what might end up being a close game could instead entertain TCU on the moneyline at -125.

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