Today we have a loaded Saturday slate of College Football on tap with nearly 100 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:30 p.m. ET: Tulane at Duke (-7.5, 51)
Tulane finished 11-3 (ranked 11th) last season but oddsmakers are expecting some regression this year as their win total sits at 7.5 at DraftKings with the under juiced to -150. Meanwhile, Duke went 9-5 last season and oddsmakers expect similar regression as their win total rests at 6.5 with the under juiced to -170.
This line opened with Duke listed as a 10-point home favorite.
The public is largely split down the middle and can’t decide whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this virtual split ticket count at DraftKings we’ve seen Duke fall from -10 to -7.5.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with Tulane plus the points.
At DraftKings, Tulane is taking in 52% of spread bets but a hefty 79% of spread dollars. At Circa, Tulane is receiving 57% of spread bets at a massive 93% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollar” sharp split in favor of the road dog, especially the pros in Vegas.
Tulane offers correlative betting value as a touchdown “plus the hook” dog in a relatively low total game (51), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 52 to 51.
At Circa, the under is taking in over 90% of bets and dollars, indicating sharp money on a lower scoring game coming from the wiseguys in the desert.
6 p.m. ET: Wyoming at Colorado State (-3, 46.5)
Wyoming went a disappointing 4-8 last season but oddsmakers are expecting a better output this year as their win total sits at 5.5 with the over juiced to -140. Meanwhile, Colorado State went a putrid 2-10 last season and oddsmakers expect a slight improvement as their win total rests at 3.5 with the over juiced to -140.
This line opened with Colorado State listed as a 4-point home favorite.
Sharps are banking on a coin-flip game and have gotten down on Wyoming plus the points, dropping the Cowboys from +4 to +3.
At DraftKings, Wyoming is taking in 60% of spread bets and 87% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in their favor.
Wyoming offers betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Short road dogs +3 or less have gone 476-402 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2012.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 48 to 46.5, with some shops inching down to 46.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 68% of bets and a hefty 98% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in over 90% of bets and dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way Pro and Joe split in favor of a lower scoring game.
10:30 p.m. ET: Western Kentucky (-1.5, 51.5) at Nevada
Western Kentucky finished 9-4 last season and oddsmakers expect a step back for the Hilltoppers this year as their win total sits at 7.5 with the under juiced to -160. On the other hand, Nevada went a disappointing 3-9 last season and oddsmakers expect a similar performance this year as their win total rests at 4.5 with the under juiced to -150.
This line opened with Western Kentucky listed as a 3-point road favorite.
Sharps have pounced on Nevada plus the points at home, dropping the Wolf Pack from +3 to +1.5, with some shops even inching down toward a pick’em.
The movement toward Nevada has been steady and consistent all week without any discernible buyback on Western Kentucky.
At DraftKings, Nevada is receiving 47% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Wolf Pack are receiving 60% of spread bets and a massive 91% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home team.
Sharps have also gotten down on Nevada to win outright (-105), as the Wolf Pack are receiving 55% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings along with 77% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars at Circa.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 53 to 51.5, with some shops down to 51.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in only 32% of bets but 73% of dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game.
