MLB Best Bets Today September 5
College football may have center stage today, and we sure do have a ton of Week 1 content, but don’t forget about MLB, as it is a very exciting time of year with the playoff races in full swing. Today’s card doesn’t start until 4:10 p.m. ET, so you can get your fill of early kickoffs and then turn at least some of your attention to the baseball games. There are some pretty chalky games today, but the potential for some barking underdogs can never be ruled out.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 5:
Twins vs. White Sox Prediction
Pick: Twins 1st 5 (-110); Taj Bradley (MIN) Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-106)
Taj Bradley and Anthony Kay are the listed starters for this AL Central battle on the South Side, as the White Sox cashed us a F5 TTO yesterday going up against Zebby Matthews. They get a tougher customer today in Bradley, who has a 3.85 ERA with a 3.93 xERA and a 3.92 FIP over his 154.1 innings of work this season. Bradley has 178 strikeouts against 66 walks and has allowed 21 homers, so there are some modest concerns, but I think he’s actually in an okay spot tonight.
For starters, lefties are only batting .210 off Bradley this season and have a 28.9% K%. The White Sox have struck out or walked in over 34% of their plate appearances against RHP over the last 30 days. While drawing walks is definitely a good thing, hitting in deep counts often takes the sting out of the bat by having to protect the zone. Not surprisingly, the White Sox are 23rd in SLG at .366 in that span and have just a .286 BABIP with a .230 BA.
Bradley has walked 11.5% of left-handed batters, so that’s why I have the Under on his Outs Recorded prop, as I think we’ll see a lot of deep counts, strikeouts, and some walks. But, the White Sox haven’t really done much in terms of slugging and that’s where Bradley could really get burned. He’s lowered his Barrel% in the second half from 10% down to 8.1%, which is a good sign here.
Meanwhile, the Twins draw Kay, a southpaw in his first full season in the Majors after cups of coffee with the Blue Jays and a couple seasons in Japan. He has a 4.28 ERA with a 4.92 xERA and a 4.81 FIP on the season. He has a 4.37 ERA here in the second half and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the workload catch up with him more and more as we go forward.
The Twins rank fourth in wOBA against LHP over the last 30 days at .351, slashing .298/.362/.436, so this should be a pretty good matchup for them. Kay has allowed 10 runs on 12 hits over his last two starts and four Barrels. The Bradley prop is a little bit of protection here as well, but I think we can thread the needle and cash both.
Cardinals vs. Rockies Prediction
Pick: Over 11 (-102)
To Denver we go for this clash between the Cardinals and Rockies, as Mason Adams makes his Coors Field debut. Adams was acquired from the White Sox at the Trade Deadline by the Rockies and his first two starts have come on the road against the Nationals and Braves. While Adams pitched well with three runs on eight hits in nine innings, his 5.11 xERA and 5.43 FIP are certainly concerning. He only had a 26.1% GB% in those two starts and that terrifies me heading into this start.
Adams allowed a 61.5% Hard Hit% against the Braves and allowed three Barrels over those first two starts. He did make three Triple-A starts in the hitter-happy PCL and did well, but MLB hitters are a different beast and a different breed.
Matthew Liberatore has a 6.37 ERA in the second half with a .291/.339/.485 slash allowed and a .358 wOBA against. He’s even struck out 53 in just 41 innings, as a huge bump in his K% still hasn’t helped his numbers. Liberatore has tilted even more to the fly ball/line drive side this season, which is not what you want, especially with 25 HR allowed in 134.2 innings of work and a 15.4% HR/FB%.
Cardinals closer Riley O’Brien has pitched three straight days, so he’s unavailable. George Soriano is available, but threw 51 pitches on Wednesday/Thursday. Justin Bruihl has been used three of the last four days and so has Cade Winquest, who has pitched the last two days. The Cardinals pen is up against it a little bit, so I think Liberatore has the chance to wear one today if he’s struggling. And the Rockies just don’t have very many good arms back there.
