Week 1 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 1 college football best bets:
Marshall +24.5 at Penn State
The Matt Campbell era in Happy Valley begins as he brings 23 players, including 13 starters with him from Iowa State. Even with all the roster and coaching staff transition, Penn State is considered a potential darkhorse, including by me in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide, to make the College Football Playoff this season.
Keep in mind, Campbell and Iowa State went 11-3 two seasons ago and now bring a large core from that team to Penn State, including a three-year starter (26-13) at QB in Rocco Becht. Becht did not participate in spring practice due to offseason shoulder surgery but will be good to go here.
The schedule certainly sets up for Penn State to have a strong record considering the Nittany Lions avoid playing defending National Champions Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon.
Nevertheless, this is the first game of a new era, so there could be some nerves and early sloppiness even with the roster and staff’s continuity coming in from Iowa State.
Marshall went just 5-7 last season in Tony Gibson’s first season, but the Thundering Herd were better than that record indicated, considering they lost four games by five points or less. QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is a veteran signal-caller and has company with both his starting receivers and tight end back.
The biggest favorite that Iowa State was last year off an 11-win season was laying 21 at Arkansas State where the Cyclones held on to win by just a 24-16 margin. Granted, this is a much bigger program with a higher ceiling, but Campbell has been less than 50 percent for his career as a home favorite, and Marshall should have its biggest improvement in its second year with this coaching staff.
Arkansas State +11.5 at Memphis
In the limited Week 0 slate, it was UNLV getting buzz as a team that could win the G6 spot in the College Football Playoff. That was until Memphis went to Vegas and knocked off the Rebels last weekend. Memphis will get another test against a potential playoff participant from the G6 with another trip out west to face Boise State on the “smurf turf” next week. That makes this week an even trickier spot hosting Arkansas State, who takes the 70-mile drive from Jonesboro down I-55, to come to Liberty Stadium for the “Paint Bucket Bowl” rivalry where the Tigers have won the last five meetings dating back to 2012.
This will be the home debut for new Memphis coach Charles Huff, who defeated Arkansas State 27-21 last season while the head coach of Southern Miss. In that game, Arkansas State put up 456 yards and 28 first downs but was done in by six turnovers (-4 margin).
Butch Jones has yet to name a starting QB, but Texas transfer Trey Owens looks to be the likely starter. The Red Wolves return their top two leading rushers from last season. Junior Devin Spencer returns after leading the team with 559 yards and three touchdowns, while senior Kenyon Clay finished with 523 yards last year.
Once UNLV center Austin Boyd went out with an injury last week, the Memphis DL dominated up front, and perhaps does so again here, but the Red Wolves do return three starters up front and should be able to hold their own physically.
The Tigers were just -8.5 this time last week before their victory at UNLV and we often say that bettors like to bet what they saw last and they saw a solid Memphis win on the road, but this line looks to have moved too much.
Louisville + 7 vs. Ole Miss (Nashville, TN)
The only ranked vs ranked battle takes place Sunday night in Nashville for the “Music City Kickoff” between No. 24 Louisville and No. 9 Ole Miss.
The Ole Miss Rebels were just 18 seconds away from playing for a National Championship last season. They return just 10 starters, although that is in the top 20 percent amongst FBS teams. QB Trinidad Chambliss, a viable Heisman candidate, accounted for nearly 300 yards per game of total offense last season and his running mate RB Kewan Lacy (1587 yards, 14 TD) both return behind an offensive line bringing back three starters. Will Echoles and Kam Franklin combined for 20.5 TFLs last season for a solid Rebels front that will have its hands full corralling Louisville RB Isaac Brown, who led FBS last year with 8.8 yards per carry and has been cleared from the hamstring injury that cost him four games last season.
Jeff and Brian Brohm’s offenses are traditionally more pass-heavy, but this year’s unit should be a bit more run-based with the Browns (Isaac and Keyjuan – no relation) and Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz, who is more of a dual-threat QB than the graduated Miller Moss. So, the offense should have some new wrinkles that opponents have not seen on film.
Pete Golding is just in his fourth career game as a head coach after spending nearly 20 years as a defensive coordinator and position coach. Lane Kiffin’s late-season departure opened up the opportunity for Golding, and he took advantage of it with two playoff victories in the College Football Playoff. All the Kiffin drama is behind Ole Miss now, but the high expectations are not. Ole Miss is expected to make another playoff appearance and certainly has the pieces to do so, but this is a big early test, and the Rebels cannot be looking ahead to September 19th against LSU and their old coach Kiffin.
Brohm is a veteran coach who thrives in this spot. Since 2018 at Purdue through this past season at Louisville, he is 11-4 ATS as an underdog of 7 or more points, including outright victories at No. 2 Miami (FL) last season, at No. 11 Clemson in 2024, vs. No. 10 Notre Dame in 2023, at No. 2 Iowa and vs. No. 5 Michigan State in 2021, and vs. No. 2 Ohio State in 2018.
Best of the Rest
Baylor/Auburn OVER 58.5
Sam Houston State/Troy OVER 54
Wisconsin +21 (-115) vs. Notre Dame (Green Bay, WI)
For more college football Week 1 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 1 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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