Today we have a loaded College Football Week 2 slate on tap with over 100 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: Baylor at SMU (-2.5, 64.5)
Baylor (0-1) just fell to Auburn 38-24 in Week 1, failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. On the other hand, SMU (1-0, ranked 16th) just crushed East Texas A&M 42-13 but failed to cover as 50.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with SMU listed as a 4-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 77% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with SMU.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen SMU fall from -4 to -2.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering SMU to begin with? Because respected smart money has jumped on Baylor plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog.
At DraftKings, Baylor is receiving 23% of spread bets but a hefty 50% of spread dollars. At Circa, Baylor is taking in 50% of spread bets and 59% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the road dog.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 626-544 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2012.
Baylor has additional buy-low value as a team off a loss playing a team off a win, as well as an unranked road dog against a ranked opponent. Unranked teams vs ranked opponents are 3-0 ATS this season and 118-98 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
The Bears enjoy a one-day rest advantage, as Baylor played on Friday while SMU played on Saturday.
Those looking to follow the sharp Baylor move would be wise to shop around and hold out for a +3, as most books are juicing up SMU -2.5 (-115) while a couple outliers are offering the key number of +3.
12 p.m. ET: Iowa at Iowa State (-3.5, 42.5)
Iowa (1-0) just brushed aside Albany 34-7 in Week 1 but failed to cover as 39.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Iowa State (2-0, ranked 22nd) just crushed South Dakota 55-7, easily covering as 16.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The public is all over the Cyclones at home, with 67% of spread bets at DraftKings laying the short chalk.
This lopsided betting drove Iowa State up from -2.5 to -3.5. However, once the hook was available we saw some wiseguy buyback on Iowa as the Hawkeyes are being juice up +3.5 (-115).
Iowa offers notable contrarian value as the Hawkeyes are only receiving 33% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet, nationally televised noon games on Saturday.
At DraftKings, Iowa is taking in 33% of spread bets and 47% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 626-544 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2012.
Iowa has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (41.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. The Hawkeyes have additional buy-low value as a dog who didn’t cover the previous week against a sell-high favorite who did.
Unranked teams vs ranked opponents are 3-0 ATS this season and 118-98 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
12 p.m. ET: Virginia at NC State (-3, 54.5)
Virginia (1-0) just crushed Coastal Carolina 48-7 in Week 1, easily covering as 13.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, NC State (1-0) just held off East Carolina 24-17 but failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with NC State listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public is leaning toward laying the points with the Wolfpack at home, as NC State is taking in 59% of spread bets at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen NC State remain static at -3. In fact, the Wolfpack have even dipped to -2.5 during the week and, entering gameday, the Virginia side is being juiced up +3 (-115). Reading between the lines, this signals sharp line freeze liability on Virginia plus the points.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 626-544 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2012.
Virginia also has betting system value as a dog in a conference game, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
7:30 p.m. ET: Michigan at Oklahoma (-5.5, 43.5)
Michigan (1-0, ranked 14th) just dismissed New Mexico 34-17 in Week 1 but failed to cover as 34.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Oklahoma (1-0, ranked 18th) just took down Illinois State 35-3 but failed to cover as 40.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Oklahoma listed as low as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Sharps hammered Oklahoma as soon as this line came out, steaming the Sooners up from -2.5 to -5.5. Some books even reached as high as -6.5 before some Michigan buyback dropped the number back down to -5.5 where it stands now.
At DraftKings, the Sooners are receiving 43% of spread bets and 56% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Sooners are receiving 54% of spread bets but 71% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of Oklahoma.
The Sooners have heightened “bet against the public” and “fade the trendy dog” value as an unpopular favorite in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game, as they are receiving less than half the tickets at DraftKings.
When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 125-83 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2016.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 43.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 31% of bets but 48% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
