Today we wrap up College Football Week 1 with a Monday Night Football showdown between SMU and Florida State. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime standalone matchup using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: SMU (-3, 54.5) at Florida State
SMU (0-0, ranked 19th) went 9-4 last season and oddsmakers are expecting another strong showing this year as their win total sits at 8.5 with the over juiced up -136 at DraftKings. On the other hand, Florida State (1-0) finished a disappointing 5-7 last year but oddsmakers expect a slight improvement this season as their adjusted win total sits at 5.5 with the over juiced -136.
SMU is making their season debut tonight while Florida State is playing their second game of the season after beating New Mexico State 34-17 in Week 0 but failing to cover as 30.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with SMU listed as a 2.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 76% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Mustangs.
This heavily lopsided betting has pushed SMU up from -2.5 to -3.
However, now that we’ve reached the key number of 3 we’re seeing some sharp buyback on Florida State, as the Seminoles are being juiced up +3 (-115) with some books ticking back down to +2.5. The fact that this line has shown resistance at 3 and failed to reach 3.5 signals a bit of a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement back toward the home dog Seminoles.
Florida State offers heightened “bet against the public” value as the Seminoles are only receiving roughly a quarter of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ESPN.
At Circa, Florida State is only taking in 26% of spread bets but 50% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
Florida State offers buy-low value as an unpopular, unranked dog against a sell-high, trendy ranked opponent. The Seminoles also offer betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up from 52.5 to 54.5.
However, the bet splits are both highlighting a sell-high contrarian under, as the under is taking in 23% of bets and 33% of dollars at DraftKings along with 25% of bets and 32% of dollars at Circa.
