MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, September 7.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:05 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo overall this season has a 3.02 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings and a 2.86 fielding independent. He has a 1.76 ERA away from home with only three home runs allowed in 92 innings compared to a 4.52 ERA at home with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed, but is supported by a lineup that is seventh in the league in scoring at home with nearly five runs per game. Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has a 3.62 ERA and 4.71 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Braves vs. Phillies Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
1:10 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Mets starting pitcher Jonah Tong posted a 4.54 ERA with 10.6 strikeouts and five walks per nine innings at the minor league level. While he has a 3.60 ERA with 10 innings logged at the MLB level this season, that all came in relief appearances, while his ERA in his five MLB starts last season was 7.71. The Mets support him with a lineup that is last in the National League in scoring with under 4.2 runs per game. Marlins starting pitcher Eury Pérez has a 3.72 ERA this season with 9.6 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings and has some pretty large home and road splits, with a 2.81 home ERA and 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 4.54 road ERA with nearly 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -111
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -157
1:35 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles
Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo has had command issues this season with a 3.81 ERA while issuing 4.6 walks per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has a 4.30 ERA this season, but his 3.54 fielding independent shows he has pitched better than that, with 8.2 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings. In his 16 starts since the beginning of June, he owns a 3.01 ERA with less than 0.8 home runs and 1.8 walks per nine innings allowed. The Orioles bullpen is fifth in ERA since July 1 at 3.21, while the Guardians are sixth in this span with a 3.43 bullpen ERA.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -142
2:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Robert Gasser has a 4.57 ERA this season but a lower 4.37 fielding independent with 8.5 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings. His ERA is 4.05 at home with 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to 5.01 away from home with nearly 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, and he is supported by a bullpen that has a 2.87 ERA since July 1, the best mark in the National League. Cubs starting pitcher Matthew Boyd has a 4.05 ERA and 4.57 fielding independent with 6.9 strikeouts and 1.3 home runs per nine innings, and the Cubs are 18th in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 4.18.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -124
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -144
8:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has always been at his best at home, posting a career 2.92 ERA with less than 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 4.10 road ERA. This season, he has a 4.21 ERA with a career-low 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy is pitching to a lot of contact, supplying a 3.97 ERA and 4.23 fielding independent with 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings, with at least three runs allowed in six of his last eight starts.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -148
