Week 1 of the College Football season wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football showdown between TCU and North Carolina. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Bill Belichick’s (and Michael Lombardi’s) Tar Heels debut using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8 p.m. ET: TCU (-3.5, 55) at North Carolina
TCU finished 9-4 last season and oddmakers are expecting a bit of a step back this year as their win total is set at 6.5 with the over juiced to -180 at DraftKings. Meanwhile, North Carolina went 6-7 last year and their win total sits at 7.5 with the under juiced to -165 for Belichick’s rookie campaign.
Back in May when the Week 1 lines first came out, North Carolina opened as a short 1.5-point home favorite. This number didn’t last long as the line quickly flipped to TCU -2.5 on the road in early June.
Since that time, we’ve seen a steady flood of TCU action hit the market, driving the Horned Frogs through the key number of -3 up to -3.5 where it stands on gameday.
This one-way movement toward TCU is notable because the public is backing Belichick and UNC as a home dog, with 59% of spread bets at DraftKings taking the points.
However, despite the majority of tickets going with the Tar Heels, the line has consistently moved in favor of the Horned Frogs. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on TCU, with pros “fading the trendy dog” Tar Heels and instead laying the points with the road favorite.
TCU is offering notable “bet against the public” value as they are receiving less than half the tickets in a heavily bet primetime game on ESPN.
At DraftKings, TCU is receiving 41% of spread bets and 49% of spread dollars. At Circa, TCU is taking in 44% of spread bets and 49% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Those looking to bet against the public and back TCU but also wary of laying the points (especially the hook), could instead elect to play TCU to win the game (-175). At Circa, the Horned Frogs are taking in only 20% of moneyline bets but a whopping 87% of moneyline dollars, a significant “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a straight up TCU victory.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen heavy smart money hammer the under, dropping the line down from 59 to 55 and even 54.5 at some shops. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 71% of bets and 77% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 50% of bets but a hefty 86% of dollars, further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas banking on a lower scoring game.
Weather shouldn’t play much of a factor tonight, as the forecast calls for mid 60s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds at Kenan Memorial Stadium.
