Today we have a loaded slate of College Football action on tap with five Bowl Games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups tonight using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
***Top College Football Betting Resources***
*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*
- NCAAF Expert Picks
- NCAAF Betting Hub
- NCAAF 2024 Week-By-Week Schedule
- Parlay Calculator
- NCAAF Betting Splits
- NCAAF Betting Odds
7 p.m. ET: Texas Tech (-2.5, 52) vs Arkansas
This is the AutoZone Liberty Bowl and it will be played at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. Texas Tech (8-4) has won three of their last four games and just crushed West Virginia 52-15, easily covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Arkansas (6-6) has lost three of their last four games and just fell to Missouri 28-21, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with Arkansas listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. We’ve seen a drastic line move in favor of Texas Tech, who has flipped from a 2.5-point dog to a 2.5-point favorite. This indicates a “dog to favorite” line move system match on the Red Raiders. At DraftKings, Texas Tech is only receiving 49% of spread bets but 77% of spread dollars, indicating an undecided public but also heavy respected action from pro bettors. Pros seem to also be targeting Texas Tech to win straight up on the moneyline (-140). At DraftKings, the Red Raiders are receiving 47% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Red Raiders are taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of Texas Tech winning the game.
One of the main reasons we’ve seen such a drastic line move toward Texas Tech is the fact that Arkansas is suffering a plethora of opt-outs and transfers for this game. The Razorbacks will be without several key contributors on both sides of the ball, including running back Ja’Quindon Jackson and wide receiver Andrew Armstrong who both declared for the NFL Draft.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen a drastic fall from 59 to 52 following all of the offensive weapons set to miss the game. At DraftKings, the public is pounding the over (80% of bets and 79% of dollars). At Circa, the under is only taking in 35% of bets but 57% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
10:30 p.m. ET: Texas A&M (-3, 53.5) vs USC
This is the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl and it will be played at Allegiant Stadium, home of the Las Vegas Raiders. USC (6-6) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Notre Dame 49-35 and failing to cover as 7-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (8-4) has dropped three of their last four games and just lost to Texas 17-7, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Texas A&M listed as low as a 1-point neutral site favorite. Pros and Joes seem to both think this opener was a bit short and have gotten down hard on the Aggies, steaming Texas A&M up from -1 to -3. Some books are even heading toward -3.5. Essentially, we’ve seen one-way movement in favor of Texas A&M without any buyback on USC. The Aggies are taking in 74% of spread bets at DraftKings and 60% of spread bets at Circa. Pros are also targeting Texas A&M to win straight up (-155), as they are receiving over 80% of moneyline bets and dollars at DraftKings.
Once again, opts outs have played a major role in shaping this line movement as USC will be without three of their top five wide receivers due to the transfer portal. The Trojans will also miss starting running back Woody Marks and cornerback Jaylin Smith, who both declared for the NFL Draft.
Pros have targeted the over in this matchup, steaming the total up from 50.5 to 53.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 76% of bets and 93% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 91% of bets and 99% of dollars. Both books are showing a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a higher scoring game.
