College Football is back and tonight we have roughly a dozen Week 1 matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6 p.m. ET: Massachusetts at Rutgers (-28.5, 53.5)
Massachusetts went a putrid 0-12 last season and oddsmakers expect a slight improvement this year as their win total sits at 2.5 at DraftKings with the over juiced to -160. Meanwhile, Rutgers finished 5-7 last season and oddsmakers are expecting a slight regression as their win total sits at 4.5 with the under juiced to -150.
This line opened with Rutgers listed as a hefty 30.5-point home favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the heavy chalk and 60% of spread bets are laying the points with the Scarlet Knights at home against the lowly Minutemen.
However, despite receiving a majority of bets we’ve actually seen Rutgers fall from -30.5 to -28.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing Rutgers to begin with? Because respected smart money has scooped up Massachusetts plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog Minutemen.
At Circa, Massachusetts is taking in 85% of spread bets and a whopping 99% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe split in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
The Minutemen offer correlative betting value as a big dog in a relatively low-total game, with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big favorite to cover.
In terms of the total, it opened at 54.5 and plummeted down to a low-water mark of 51.5. However, over the past 24-hours we’ve seen some buy-low over buyback, raising the line back up to 53.5 on game day.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 60% of bets and 74% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving only 29% of bets but a hefty 83% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp split in favor of a higher scoring game.
8 p.m. ET: Colorado at Georgia Tech (-6.5, 51.5)
Colorado finished a disappointing 3-9 last season and oddsmakers expect a similar output this year as their win total sits at 4.5 with the under juiced to -160. On the other hand, Georgia Tech went an impressive 9-4 last season but oddsmakers are expecting a step backward this year as their win total rests at 6.5 with the under juiced to -130.
This line opened with Georgia Tech listed as a 7-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 77% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the points with the Yellow Jackets at home.
However, despite receiving such overwhelming support from the masses we’ve seen Georgia Tech fall from -7 to -6.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Colorado plus the points, as the line has dipped in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
Colorado is the top “bet against the public” play of the night as the Buffaloes are receiving less than a quarter of tickets in the most heavily bet, nationally televised game of the night on ESPN.
At Circa, Colorado is taking in 56% of spread bets and 63% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen the number remain relatively stagnant at 51.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 29% of bets and 43% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 38% of bets and 56% of dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy split in favor of a lower scoring game.
