EPL Best Bets and Predictions September 5-6
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Manchester City vs. Coventry
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
The new Premier League season is only two rounds old, but we’ve already got a pretty good read on which teams to ride and which ones to fade. I am happy to have posted a 5-1 record to open the campaign, and there are three standout bets for me from this weekend’s slate.
Manchester City have wasted little time declaring themselves in the title race after winning both games under new manager Enzo Maresca. If the opening day 2-1 defeat of Bournemouth was a dramatic late rescue act, the dominant nature of their 4-1 win at Crystal Palace was a throwback to a City in their pomp under Pep.
Next up, a Coventry side that were expectedly outclassed by champions Arsenal in their first game at this level for over two decades. However, the 1-0 defeat at home to Hull last weekend saw Frank Lampard admit he was disappointed with both the result and the performance.
Understandably, the home side are -670 favorites to win, and this looks more like a question not if Maresca’s men can score but how many. However, with Tuesday’s Champions League trip to Porto on the horizon, I am put off betting them on the Asian handicap needing a three-goal margin of victory to cash in full.
Instead, I am playing the win-to-nil market, successful twice for this column already this season in both Arsenal games, including against this same opponent. Now it is Manchester City’s turn to use their superior possession and individual quality against what is likely to be a low defensive block.
I like this angle where we are not asking City to cover a huge handicap but simply get the job done while keeping their newly promoted opponents off the scoreboard and at plus money.
EPL Best Bet: Manchester City vs Coventry – Manchester City to win to nil at +100
Brighton vs. Leeds
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I am going to trust Brighton here despite something of a wild start to their season. The Seagulls thrashed Aston Villa 4-0 in their opening home fixture before scoring another three at Chelsea but coming away empty-handed after a seven-goal thriller. They also beat Tromsø 4-0 in the UEFA Conference League in between those league games.
Leeds sits in eighth, one place ahead of the hosts after an impressive win at Forest was followed with a 1-1 tie at home to Brentford. However, that was something of a fortunate result with Daniel Farke’s men losing on every metric other than the scoreline – admittedly the most important!
Brentford had 22 shots to Leeds’ 12 with five on target to two, and the Bees missed two big chances. Allowing those kinds of numbers against this rampant Brighton side will spell trouble, as was the case when the two sides met here last November, when the Seagulls ran out comfortable 3-0 victors.
Leeds built their Premier League survival on making their Elland Road home a fortress. Their impressive 14th-place finish somewhat masking a road record that saw only two wins and a bottom-three return of 15 points from a possible 57.
Brighton is unbeaten in 10 meetings with Leeds at the Amex, winning seven of the last eight, and I expect them to extend that impressive sequence.
EPL Best Bet: Brighton vs Leeds – Brighton to win at -105.
Everton vs. Manchester United
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
Manchester United have quickly shown us their Jekyll-and-Hyde nature is not a thing of the past in their opening two performances this season. They opened with a disappointing 2-0 loss away to newly promoted Hull City, then responded emphatically by beating Ipswich 5-2 at Old Trafford.
It is that explosion of attacking output that has grabbed my attention and is enough to put my trust in them this week at plus money to follow up. United have taken more shots than any other team in the league with 54, in doing so also posting the most on target (16), resulting in the highest expected goals scored of 6.60.
There are serious defensive concerns and rightfully so, exposed in wide areas as well as set pieces by two sides that have just been promoted from the second tier. A lack of recruitment to bolster that shaky backline has left Red Devils fans more than a little frustrated, but I think that will lead to their team simply relying on their attack to outscore any opponent.
Transfer window frustration is certainly something all Evertonians can empathize with. The departures of star man Iliman Ndiaye and backup striker Beto have not been covered, and David Moyes has been left in the ridiculous situation of having a squad with only 18 outfield players.
Despite a strong start on the pitch, scratch the surface and the Toffees look vulnerable. They rank in the bottom five for expected goals conceded (4.12), with 75% of shots allowed coming inside the box, the highest percentage of any side after two games.
Michael Carrick has overseen 19 games in his most recent spell in charge at Old Trafford, picking up 42 points in the process. No team has won more in the Premier League over that same period of time.
When he took his side to the Hill Dickenson stadium in February, they were a shade of minus money and came away with a 1-0 win. I feel the market has overreacted to Everton’s unbeaten start and not given enough credit to the attacking threat of the visitors.
United also have a strong record in this fixture, with that success a seventh across the last nine meetings, and Everton have only won two of the last 16. Hopes of turning that around are not helped by David Moyes’ own personal record against his former employers, having lost 23 Premier League matches against them.
This may be a tight clash, but I expect the visitors’ attacking quality to come out on top, and the plus money on the table for them to do so is too hard to turn down.
EPL Best Bet: Everton vs Manchester United – Manchester United to win at +115
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