The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, September 3, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Over the total is 29-9 (+19.25 units) in Luis Castillo’s last 38 road starts
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-HOU (o/u at 8.5)

When two teams with >=0.55% win pct meet in a night game to close out a series, Under the total is 73-50-6 (59.3%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 8.5)

Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 483-504 but for +35.57 units and an ROI of 3.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-118 vs MIA)

On Over projections so far when the SM Ratings simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 25-15-2 for +7.53 units and an ROI of 18.8% for 2026.
Ratings Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-SEA (o/u at 7, projections have o/u at 8.2)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 82-127 for -48.98 units and an ROI of -23.4%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+134 at HOU)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 138-205 start for -25.87 units (-7.5% ROI) after losing about 35.5 units over the 2-1/2 months. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory, and continues to fall fast!
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+141 at PIT), ATHLETICS (+177 at SEA)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 87-50 for -23.64 units, ROI -17.3%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-311 vs STL), SEATTLE (-217 vs ATH)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 282-347 for -28.66 units, and comes off a rough two-week stretch, giving back over 18 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+134 at HOU), MIAMI (-102 at KC)

Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 237-161 for +46.56 units, an ROI of +11.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-116 at CHC), CLEVELAND (-117 vs TOR), BOSTON (-125 at BAL)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 174-200 start for -39.88 units (ROI -10.7%).
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+246 at LAD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 149-169 for +2.26 units. However, it has lost -11.00 units over the last two months.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-118 vs MIA)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 483-504 but for +35.57 units and an ROI of 3.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-118 vs MIA)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -106 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 263-195 for +25.94 units and an ROI of 5.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-125 at BAL), TAMPA BAY (-130 at TEX)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 422-474 but for +94.62 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+134 at HOU)
*WATCH FOR MIAMI at KC (-102 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -104 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 162-202 for -37.95 units and an ROI of -10.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (+108 vs TB)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 474-421 record for +46.30 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ATHLETICS at SEA (+177 CURRENTLY)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,223-2,099 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.27 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-105 at CLE), MILWAUKEE (-116 at CHC), MIAMI (-102 at KC), ATHLETICS (+177 at SEA)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,288-2,874 (44.3%) for -273.10 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+134 at HOU)

Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 70-50-5 (58.3%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 40-23 Over streak in the last 63).
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-KC (o/u at 9)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 115-166 SU (-24.58 units, ROI: -8.7%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+138 at PIT)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #2:
When two teams with >=0.55% win pct meet in a night game to close out a series, Under the total is 73-50-6 (59.3%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 8.5)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK SYSTEMS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 593-577 for +27.92 units, good for +2.4% ROI. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ST LOUIS +246 (+50 diff), BALTIMORE +104 (+26), ATHLETICS +177 (+20)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE -116 (+20 diff), TAMPA BAY -130 (+11)

Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 RUN edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 25-15-2 for +7.53 units and an ROI of 18.8%. On Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 29-12-1 for +14.9 units and an ROI of 36.3%. 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: ATH-SEA OVER 7 (+1.2)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: SF-PIT UNDER 9 (-1.0)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) SAN FRANCISCO (58-82) at (952) PITTSBURGH (68-72)
Trend: PIT is 36-24 (+10.03 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-171 vs SF)

(953) MILWAUKEE (87-53) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (78-62)
Trend: Over the total is 20-9-1 (+10.10 units) when CHC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-CHC (o/u at 8.5)

(955) ST LOUIS (70-70) at (956) LOS ANGELES-NL (82-57)
Trend: Tarik Skubal’s teams are 30-13 (+7.86 units) in his last 43 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-311 vs STL)

(957) TORONTO (69-71) at (958) CLEVELAND (70-69)
Trend: Jose Soriano’s teams are 16-8 (+10.21 units) when he starts in day games in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-103 at CLE)

(959) CHICAGO-AL (73-66) at (960) HOUSTON (71-69)
Trend: Over the total is 29-9 (+19.25 units) in Luis Castillo’s last 38 road starts
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-HOU (o/u at 8.5)

(961) BOSTON (75-65) at (962) BALTIMORE (69-71)
Trend: BAL is 18-5 (+14.16 units) with starter Brandon Young since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+104 vs BOS)

(963) TAMPA BAY (83-56) at (964) TEXAS (69-71)
Trend: Over the total is 15-5-2 (+7.30 units) with starter Shane McClanahan on the road in low total games (o/u <= 8) since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-TEX (o/u at 8)

(965) ATHLETICS (54-86) at (966) SEATTLE (66-74)
Trend: SEA is 42-70 (-19.76 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs ATH)

Series #37: Tampa Bay at Texas, Thu 9/3-Sun 9/6
Trend: TEXAS is on a profitable 14-3 (82.4%, +12.72 units) run versus Tampa Bay
– The ROI on this trend is 74.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+108 vs TB)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:55 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-311 vs STL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-311 vs STL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-118 vs MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-163 vs CWS), KANSAS CITY (-118 vs MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-PIT (o/u at 9)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

ATHLETICS     
Letdown after series vs. TEXAS: 16-23 (41%) -8.20 units, ROI: -21%
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+177 at SEA)

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