Today we bid farewell to mid-week MACtion as the final pair of Mid-American Conference weekday matchups take place across the Week 14 College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa.
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4:30 p.m. ET: Bowling Green (-14.5, 44.5) at Massachusetts
Bowling Green (3-8) has dropped five straight games and just fell to Akron 19-16, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Massachusetts (0-11) hasn’t won a single game all season and just lost to Ohio 42-14 but managed to cover as 34-point road dogs.
This line opened with Bowling Green listed as a 14.5-point road favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big chalk and is happy to fade the Minutemen, the only winless team in College Football.
However, despite receiving 67% of spread bets we’ve seen Bowling Green remain static at -14.5. A few books even opened as high as Bowling Green -16.5 and immediately came down to -14.5.
Normally, if a team is getting such lopsided support you would expected to see them rise up from -14.5 to -15 or -15.5. However, that hasn’t happened. This signals a sharp line freeze in favor of Massachusetts plus the points, as the line hasn’t budged despite the public pounding the road favorite Falcons.
Massachusetts has notable “bet against the public” value as the Minutemen are only receiving 33% of spread bets at DraftKings.
However, at Circa the Minutemen are taking in 42% of spread bets and 50% of spread dollars, a sneaky “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split indicating wiseguy action in their favor out in Vegas.
Massachusetts has correlative betting value as a big two-touchdown plus dog in a low total game (44.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the big chalk.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down slightly from 45 to 44.5.
This downward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over at DraftKings (70% of bets), yet the total fell.
At Circa, the under is receiving 57% of bets and a whopping 99% of dollars, a massive sharp desert split in favor of a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for mid 40s with cloudy skies, 7 MPH winds and possibly some rain showers.
7:30 p.m. ET: Western Michigan (-7.5, 46.5) at Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan (7-4) has won seven of their last eight games and just beat up on Northern Illinois 35-19, easily covering as 7.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Eastern Michigan (4-7) has won two straight and just took down Ball State 24-9, cruising as 2.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Western Michigan listed as a 6.5-point road favorite.
Sharps have jumped on Western Michigan laying the chalk, steaming the Broncos up from -6.5 to -7.5. Several books are juicing up Western Michigan -7.5 (-115) while a few others have crept up toward -8. Essentially, all movement and liability has been in favor of the road team.
At DraftKings, Western Michigan is receiving 69% of spread bets and 79% of spread dollars. At Circa, Western Michigan is taking in 89% of spread bets and 77% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a lopsided Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk Broncos.
Western Michigan has a big edge defensively, allowing only 18.9 PPG (15th) while Eastern Michigan is giving up 29.8 PPG (95th). Western Michigan is only allowing 287.8 yards per game, ranking 12th in College Football.
Motivation is likely to be in favor of Western Michigan as they can clinch a spot in the MAC championship game with a win. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan is not eligible for a postseason bowl game.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up from 45.5 to 46.5. Most of the market is juicing up the over 46.5 (-115) with some shops inching toward 47 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 69% of bets and 68% of dollars, indicating a one-sided mix of both public and sharp support in favor of a higher scoring game.
The forecast calls for low 50s with cloudy skies and mild 5-7 MPH winds.
