Tonight we kickoff Week 14 of the College Football season with a pair of MACtion sweats to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

***Top College Football Betting Resources***

*It's the VSiN Black Friday Special. Take advantage of the largest savings of the year by upgrading to VSiN Pro. For a limited time, you can secure Pro access until May 1st for only $60.*

7 p.m. ET: Toledo (-9, 49) at Akron

Toledo (7-4) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Ohio 24-7 and losing outright as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Akron (3-8) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 38-17 win over Kent State, covering as 10.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Toledo listed as a 9-point road favorite. The public sees a blowout win for Toledo and 76% of spread bets at DraftKings and 79% of spread bets at Circa Sports are laying the points with the road favorite. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Toledo remain stagnant at -9. We’ve even seen the line dip down as low as -8 throughout the week. This signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement on Akron plus the points, as the line has stayed the same or moved briefly in their favor despite being the unpopular play. Akron has notable “bet against the public” value, as they are receiving less than 25% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game on ESPN2. At Circa Sports, Akron is only receiving 21% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Akron enjoys a one-day rest advantage, as they just played on Wednesday while Toledo played on Friday and now must go on the road. Akron has additional value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up slightly from 48.5 to 49. At Circa, the over is receiving 44% of bets but 55% of dollars, a sharp split. MACtion overs are 24-16 (60%) with a 14% ROI this season. The forecast calls for high 30s with partly cloudy skies and 7 MPH winds.

7 p.m. ET: Kent State at Buffalo (-23.5, 49.5)

Kent State (0-11) just got crushed by Akron 38-17, failing to cover as 10.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Buffalo (7-4) has won four straight and just took down Eastern Michigan 37-20, easily winning outright as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 21-point home favorite. The public and the sharps both like Buffalo to cover in a blowout, as the Bulls have been steamed up from -21 to -23.5, with some shops even reaching -24. Essentially, all movement has been on Buffalo with no discernible buyback on Kent State at an inflated price. Buffalo is receiving 73% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars at DraftKings, signaling heavy Pro and Joe support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. Buffalo has the better offense (27.8 PPG vs 14.5 PPG) and better defense (allowing 29.9 PPG vs 44.2 PPG). Kent State has lost its last five games by an average of roughly 28 points. Meanwhile, Buffalo should be motivated as tonight is Senior Night. We’ve also seen some smart money hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 49.5. This slight downward adjustment is notable because the public is hammering the over (69% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. Weather could play a role here, as the forecast calls for high 30s with partly cloudy skies and 13-15 MPH winds, making this a “windy under” system match. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade. Kent State is one of the slowest teams in college football, ranking 131st in pace out of 134 teams.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR