Troy Trojans:

As far as Sun Belt programs are concerned, no program and no roster looks more different than Troy’s for the 2024 season. Head coach Jon Sumrall took the job at Tulane and took most of his staff, and a handful of players, with him. Notre Dame OC Gerad Parker, who is a branch of the Neal Brown coaching tree, gets his first crack as a full-time head coach. He was 0-6 as Purdue’s interim HC in 2016.

Historically, Troy overcomes challenges. The loss of a head coach is nothing new and the revolving door of talent is commonplace. However, the degree of turnover is much, much higher than usual and it happens within an improving division for a team that is 23-5 over the first two seasons.

 

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Offense

The Sumrall/Parker swap isn’t all of the news here. QB Gunnar Watson, RB Kimani Vidal, and WR Jabre Barber are all gone and all of them were the leaders at their respective positions. WR Chris Lewis is out after undergoing cancer treatment. Troy was 32nd with 6.23 yards per play and 20th in total yardage with 5,872. Watson had 3,569 of the 3,724 passing yards. Vidal had 1,661 of the 2,148 rushing yards. Barber and Lewis had 1,734 of the 3,724 receiving yards. Third-leading WR Deshon Stoudemire is also gone with 569 yards.

So, this is a total rebuild on offense for Parker. It starts with Goose Crowder, who was 9-of-13 for 94 yards and a touchdown last season. Troy usually finds a back and Damien Taylor had 346 yards on 67 attempts, but only found paydirt once. The Trojans scored 48 touchdowns last season and a small handful of those are back.

Defense

The defense is also thin because Greg Gasparato got a lot of his players to head with him to Tulane, where he will serve as the DC. This was an outstanding defense to say the least. The Trojans allowed just 17.1 points per game and were 10th in scoring defense. They were also 10th in yards per play allowed. Javon Soloman and Richard Jibunor combined for 26 sacks and both are gone. Troy had 47 as a team.

The next leading sack man had 3.5 in T.J. Jackson and guess what? He’s moved on, too, joining Brown at West Virginia. Only three starters are back on each side of the ball and an offensive downturn could negatively impact the defense as well. DC Dontae Wright is another branch of the Brown coaching tree and he could do well here, but it’ll take some time.

Outlook

I may be selling Parker and this staff really short, but this kind of feels like the start of the Chip Lindsey years. When Brown left for WVU, Lindsey took over as a promising offensive mind and the team went 15-20 over three seasons and missed bowls every year. Add in the tremendous loss of talent and it could be a long year. I’ve downgraded Troy a ton in my Power Ratings and still have 6.55 wins, but I think I’ll lower them before the season some more.

Pick: Under 6.5 Wins

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