Tulane Green Wave:
The winds of change blew through New Orleans this offseason, as head coach Willie Fritz moved on to Houston and QB Michael Pratt moved on to the NFL. The Green Wave have a lot of holes to fill, but there is a very real possibility that this team is as good or better than last year’s version. Former Troy head coach Jon Sumrall had two successful seasons with the Trojans and brought both coordinators with him.
The expanded playoff is a huge deal for a program like Tulane, who never had a chance to be in the top four, but certainly has a chance to be the top Group of Five team. It’ll probably take at least one upset out of Kansas State and Oklahoma and running the AAC table.
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Offense
The loss of a veteran, accomplished QB like Pratt has not gone unnoticed at Tulane, but Oregon transfer Ty Thompson was once a five-star recruit and might get his chance now. Thompson was stuck behind Bo Nix each of the last two seasons. Oregon brought in Dillon Gabriel and Thompson took his chances in the portal, ending up with the Green Wave. He only has 66 career pass attempts, but has every opportunity to win the job over Kai Horton.
While Joe Craddock has to replace almost the entire receiver room, he does get a big boost in star RB Mekhi Hughes, who had 1,378 yards last season. He only had seven rushing touchdowns, a number that could easily go up after Kimani Vidal had 24 rushing scores for Troy over Craddock’s two seasons there. TE Alex Bauman hit the portal, but came back to Tulane, and he’ll be a top option alongside USC transfer Mario Williams and Alabama transfer Shazz Preston.
Defense
The Tulane offense looks to be in great shape and the top three tacklers are all back on defense, so this unit may not fall off much either. The Green Wave were 34th in yards per play and 24th in scoring defense. DC Greg Gasparato brought some of his Trojans with him, so the secondary is actually in pretty good shape and now there are some guys that already know the scheme.
Both Troy and Tulane were similar in terms of average time of possession, as Tulane was about 30 seconds longer, so the defense should have a workload that resembles last season’s. The Green Wave did have 27 takeaways last season compared to Troy’s 23. It’ll be interesting to see if they find the same success.
Outlook
The more I researched this Tulane team, the more bullish I became. My numbers call for 7.83 wins, which sounds low, but the schedule is tough with two clear underdog spots against Kansas State and Oklahoma, plus a toss-up game against Memphis. But I like Over 7.5 wins and think Sumrall is an outstanding coach.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
