Tuley’s Takes – College Football Early Bowl Game and CFP Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
We hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season like we are in the Tuley’s Take home office. We’ve passed the quarter pole of the NFL regular season, but we’re also excited about the “second season” of college football as bowl season has kicked off with the College Football Playoff topping it all off.
I trust you’ve been going over the VSiN Bowl Betting Guide, but I’ll still be doing these “takes” columns the next few Mondays to give my “dog or pass” plays on each week’s CFB games.
Jacksonville State (+2) vs. Troy
Salute to Veterans Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 16
Tuley’s Take: This is pretty much a coin flip between evenly matched 8-5 teams, as you can tell from the point spread, which has come down from Troy -3.5. I’m not thrilled with missing out on being on the other side of the key number, but I believe the early money has been on the right side, and we’ll call for the outright upset. Jacksonville State already had the edge in the ground game with RB Cam Cook leading the nation with 1,659 yards (plus QB Caden Creel topping 1,000 yards), but now Troy is also going to be without its top rusher, Tae Meadows, who left the program for the transfer portal. I’m not sure the right team was favored to begin with, but now I’m more convinced the Gamecocks are the play.
CFB Bowl Best Bet: Jacksonville State +2
Kennesaw State (+3.5) vs. Western Michigan
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Friday, Dec. 19
Tuley’s Take: With my alma mater Northern Illinois being a longtime member of the Mid-American Conference (though the Huskies are leaving for the Mountain West next season, so I’ll get to see them when they visit UNLV), I’m more familiar with MAC champion Western Michigan and also know it’s usually a good move to fade the MAC in bowl games. I don’t know about Kennesaw State except for the stats I’ve seen and the stories I’ve read, but I know the (Tuley checks notes) Owls have exceeded expectations all season by winning eight more games than last year, going 9-3 ATS (they covered vs. Wake Forest in the season opener, got blown out 56-9 by now-No. 1 Indiana before going on an 8-2 ATS run capped off with the 19-145 upset of Jacksonville State in the Conference USA title game) and dual-threat QB Amari Odom should keep them in the game.
CFB Bowl Best Bet: Kennesaw State +3.5
#10 Miami (FL) (+3.5) at #7 Texas A&M
CFB Playoff first-round game
Saturday, Dec. 20
Tuley’s Take: There was a lot of controversy about Alabama and Miami getting in the CFB Playoff over Notre Dame, but the Canes beat the Irish head-to-head in the season-opener, 27-24, so I don’t believe there’s any question that Miami deserves to be in the field. But I love that the Canes have that added incentive to prove their worthiness, just like we often see college basketball bubble teams get into March Madness and win a game after the media and the public cry that they shouldn’t be in the field. That makes for a live first-round dog, and Miami is fully capable of pulling the upset here.
This line opened Texas A&M -4 and has been bet down to 3.5 with the VSiN Betting Splits showing 89% of the money at Circa Sports and 66% of the money at DraftKings on Miami as of this Betting Guide’s deadline on late Tuesday night, Dec. 9 (note: that’s from the VSIN CFB Bowl Betting Guide; it’s still 61% as of Monday, Dec. 15). I say the sharp money is on the right side as I have Miami favored on a neutral field and believe the only reason the Aggies are favored is because of the so-called “12th Man” home-field advantage at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas, but don’t forget they only beat Auburn 16-10 and South Carolina 31-30 at home.
Miami’s Carson Beck and A&M’s Marcel Reed are pretty even with 25 TD passes and 10 INTs each, but I’ll take Beck with the higher completion percentage (74.5% to 61.8%) and more big-game experience from his four years at Georgia. Regular readers of “Tuley’s Takes” will also recognize this as an “anti-swagger play” against Texas A&M, which had an 11-game winning streak snapped in its 27-17 loss at Texas.
CFB Playoff Best Bet: Miami (FL) +3.5
For more college football bowl game best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Bowl Game hub, exclusively on VSiN.
