College Football

Tuley’s Takes on College Football Week 6

October 5, 2023

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There’s an old saying in the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas that it’s hard for bettors to be hot in both college and pro football. Win on Saturday/lose on Sunday . . . and vice versa. I guess I’m a victim of my own self-fulfilling prophecy.

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After losing my first CFB play last Friday on Utah +4 at Oregon State, I swept my three Saturday plays on Arizona State +12.5 at California, Baylor +12.5 at Central Florida and South Florida +3 at Navy.

Then, like clockwork, I had my first losing NFL weekend of the young season as I went 2-3 ATS with my Best Bets in my NFL column here at VSiN. Fortunately, I’m still 12-8 ATS overall in the NFL. As for our purposes here with college football, we’re back to .500 at 9-9-1 ATS with our posted plays, so hopefully we’re turning the corner.

Last week, we also stubbornly played Utah on Friday night even after losing the prior two Friday nights. I’m going to pass on Thursday and Friday night games for now and concentrate on the big Saturday cards to try and find our live underdogs. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice (and then a third time), shame on me.

I’m a little bummed about this Saturday’s card as there were two teams that I was hoping to get as short road underdogs (Central Florida at Kansas and Texas Tech at Baylor), but they’ve both been bet to favoritism. My “dog-or-pass” approach requires me to pass on those, but consider those leans if you’re not as dogmatic as yours truly.

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Oklahoma +6 vs. Texas

I often look to the smaller conference trying to find live dogs, but we’re kicking off Saturday with the game of the day in the Red River Shootout (yes, I still call it that as that’s what it usually is – notwithstanding last year’s 49-0 rout by Texas).

The Longhorns are rightfully favored as they have the most impressive win so far with their 34-24 win at Alabama on September 9th and blowing out their three unranked opponents. However, the Sooners are playing just as well.

OU’s Dillon Gabriel (75.2%, 1,593 yards, 15 TDs, two INTS) matches up well with Texas’ Quinn Ewers (66%, 1,358 yards, 10 TDs, one INT), and they could make the Over/Under of 60.5 points look short. We’re expecting a back-and-forth game, and hopefully, the 6 points are enough for the cover, though I’ll also have a little on the Oklahoma moneyline at +185.

Rutgers +13 at Wisconsin

We’ll stay in the Midwest with another early Saturday game. I missed Rutgers +14 earlier in the week, but the money has been on the right side with the underdog Scarlet Knights as we believe this line should be around 7 or 8 points (10 max) and not closer to two TDs as we don’t see that big of a gap between these teams this season.

Wisconsin relies, as usual, on the running game led by Braelon Allen (116 yards and two TDs on 16 carries in the Badgers’ 38-17 vs. Purdue last time out), but Rutgers might be able to match that with Kyle Monangai (third in Big Ten with 471 rushing yards and six TDs). Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s passing attack isn’t as potent as QB Tanner Mordecai has more INTs (3) than TD passes (2), so that should help Rutgers stay comfortably within two scores.

Tulsa +3 at Florida Atlantic

Fun fact: 40 years ago this fall, back when I was in high school in 1983, Tulsa coach John Cooper – before he went to Arizona State and then Ohio State – recruited me as a kicker, but he said he could only offer a scholarship if I walked-on and won the starting job.

But I don’t feel biased in saying the wrong team is favored here, similar to my play on South Florida over Navy last week. Tulsa is 3-2 against Florida Atlantic’s 1-3 while FAU is No. 112 in total offense and 115 in scoring. Granted, the Owls’ stats are skewed due to playing a much harder schedule including Clemson and Illinois, but I still don’t see them keeping up with a Tulsa offense averaging 27.8 points per game behind a balanced attack of 194 passing yards and 194.2 rushing yards per game.

Old Dominion +1.5 at Southern Mississippi

We’re calling for another minor upset with another short dog here. As far as I can tell, Southern Miss is only favored because it’s at home. But as I wrote in this week’s NFL column at VSiN.com, we’ve seen home-field advantage mean less and less since the 2020 pandemic. Old Dominion is 2-3 this season, and Southern Miss is 1-4 with their only win over FCS school Alcorn State. The Monarchs’ overall body of work is strong, including 339 rushing yards last week (236 by Kadarius Calloway) in a 41-35 loss vs. Marshall. As long as Old Dominion QB Jack Shields doesn’t throw three INTs again, the Monarchs should get back in the win column.