Tuley’s Takes – Week 10 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
Last Saturday didn’t go as planned in the Tuley’s Take home office between horse racing’s Breeders’ Cup and college football. Just like on Friday, we hit some Exactas in the Breeders’ Cup but no big ones, as it was a pretty chalky BC this year and none of our longshot value bets ran first or second for a net loss, plus we went 1-3 ATS with our CFB plays.
Our lone win was on Iowa State +9.5 in a 51-49 outright upset of #24 Oklahoma State, but we lost on Arizona +3.5 in a 34-26 loss at #13 Texas Tech (a bit of a Bad Beat), Florida +12.5 in a 27-8 loss vs. Georgia (nowhere close to a Bad Beat as it was more of a blowout than the final score indicates) and Cincinnati +6.5 in a 49-25 loss vs. #6 Utah.
That dropped us to 19-18 ATS (51.4%), so still above .500 but not profitable vs. the standard -110 vigorish (-0.8 units).
But hopefully we bounce back this weekend as we’re into the home stretch of CFB in November and heading toward the bowl games and CFB Playoff. We’re still mostly staying away from the SEC as that conference is the main reason we’re not more games over .500, though I do like Alabama +6 getting points against LSU this Saturday (but not an official Best Bet).
#8 UCLA at Minnesota (+5)
I don’t know anyone who saw UCLA being undefeated and atop the Big Ten standings at this time of year, but here we are. I’ve been looking for a good spot to fade the Bruins, as they’ve benefited from a soft schedule and their only quality win was at Oregon, who was playing without star QB Dante Moore. And I like that we get Minnesota at home (longtime handicapper and frequent VSiN guest Marc Lawrence of playbooksports.com points out Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in the last six games as a home underdog). The Golden Gophers have been good to us this season, including two weeks ago when they upset Iowa 13-10 as 7-point home dogs. They also went to Bloomington, Indiana, on Halloween to cover in OT as 7.5-point road dogs in a 23-16 loss at the Hoosiers. Minnesota’s defense is good enough to keep this as another tight, low-scoring game, and we love getting anything more than a field goal.
College Football Best Bet: Minnesota +5
#9 BYU (+4.5) at #3 Utah
In a loaded CFB Week 10 Saturday, this could be the marquee game of the day if it wasn’t for Miami (FL)-Notre Dame (or Alabama-LSU or Oregon-Ohio State if you’re a fan of the SEC – which also has ranked matchups between Kentucky-Tennessee and Georgia-Ole Miss – or Big Ten). There are ATS trends in favor of both sides, so I’m not going to cite any, but BYU has had Utah’s number in recent years with three straight wins in the series. Utah is undefeated and at home, so I get why it’s favored, but the oddsmakers are giving us a clue that BYU is a live dog or else this line would be higher. We failed in fading Utah last Saturday as the Utes routed Cincinnati, but BYU has a much better defense (allowing just 4.4 yards per play and under 300 yards per game) to contain Utah’s high-powered offense.
College Football Best Bet: BYU +4.5
Air Force (+3) at Army
It’s long been funny to me that “Air” Force never has a strong passing game, but the Falcons are often among the nation’s top rushing teams and this year are No. 2 at 341 rushing yards per game. Granted, Army is No. 1 at just 1.5 yards more yards per game, but I give the edge here to Air Force. They have the stronger run defense, allowing just 129.1 yards per game to 152.5 by Army. The Falcons’ backup QB Evan Medders “pulled a Baker Mayfield” in the win over my alma mater, Northern Illinois, as he won the game without completing a pass. Actually, he did Baker one better by not even attempting a pass, so I think we see how this game will be played and I’m fine with that. Air Force also allows fewer passing yards (not that it will matter in this contest) and fewer points per game (21.5 vs. 29.3). Frankly, I think the wrong team is favored, but I’ll gladly take the points.
College Football Best Bet: Air Force +3
#1 Miami (FL) (+7.5) at #11 Notre Dame
This is the marquee game of a strong CFB Saturday card, after all ESPN’s College Gameday will be there. Notre Dame is at home and I know oddsmakers base point spreads on power ratings more than rankings, but I was still surprised when the Irish opened as a 5.5-point home favorite over the No. 1 Hurricanes. And as we’ve all seen, this line has risen during the week after it was announced Miami star Malachi Toney is out with an ankle injury, as the line crossed the key number of 7 to Notre Dame -7.5 and up to 8.5 at a few books.
I have to take the No. 1 team as a dog getting more than a TD for two reasons: 1) Notre Dame is overrated to me (by the polls as well as oddsmakers and the betting market) as the Irish’s undefeated record was built against a weak schedule and they lost the first time they were challenged by a ranked team (BYU – add that to my reasons for liking the Cougars against Utah above) and 2) As great as Toney is, Miami is not a one-man team and has outgained every opponent this season and I believe the Canes will do that again even against a strong Notre Dame defense – though we could say again that its stats are padded by the schedule. Gimme the points, but I’m calling for the outright upset.
College Football Best Bet: Miami (FL) +7.5
For more Week 10 college football best bets, visit the Week 10 College Football Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
