Week 10 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 10 college football best bets:
Minnesota +5.5 vs. UCLA
Undefeated UCLA (also the lone undefeated ATS team in FBS) came in at No. 8 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. This week, the Bruins take the road for the first time in a month to face Minnesota in a Big Noon Kickoff (9 AM PT) game where QB Ty Dieffenbach makes his first road start.
Minnesota has to get back up off the mat as the Gophers looked like they had defending National Champions Indiana beaten on their home field before the Hoosiers made a 60-yard field goal, after Minnesota made one of its own, and then scored in OT to take what looked like a sure victory away.
While you can only play the schedule that is in front of you, UCLA’s ranks at No. 78 as the Bruins got to avoid almost all of the traditionally elite teams in the Big 10. Minnesota’s schedule rank is 32nd. UCLA got to face a third-string QB in the second half at Oregon, defeated Wisconsin and Colton Joseph, who was benched last week at Iowa, then beat a third-string true freshman QB vs. Michigan State, and both backup and third-string (former Bruin Luke Duncan) quarterbacks vs. Nevada.
Minnesota has had to play three elite defenses in its last four games with Michigan, Iowa, and Indiana. This is clearly a step up in class for UCLA based on who the Bruins have been playing over the last month.,
Both defenses have been elite thus far, with the Bruins stop unit ranking No. 1 in Havoc % and Minnesota coming in at No. 18. The total for this game is only 39, so it should be a slugfest.
Temperatures will not be that cold in the high 40s, but there are projected to be 15-20 mph winds, which could affect the Bruins a bit more.
PJ Fleck is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in his last six games as a conference home underdog with victories already this year in the Little Brown Jug game vs. Michigan and the Floyd of Rosedale trophy game vs. Iowa.
Missouri +3 -120 vs. Texas
This is not quite a “loser leaves town” match. Well, it is for Missouri, who is ranked No. 18 in the College Football Playoff rankings, as its marquee win over Florida in early October gets less and less impressive with the Gators’ recent struggles.
Meanwhile, Texas is still hanging in at No. 7 with its wins over Ohio State, at Tennessee, and vs. Ole Miss. However, the Longhorns are banged up. RB Hollywood Smothers is out. Starting DB’s Graceson Littleon and Kade Phillips are questionable. WR’s Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo are also questionable. All-American EDGE Colin Simmons is doubtful. All-American LT Trevor Goosby is out for the season for an offensive line that has been poor anyways by having allowed 24 sacks, ranking T-123rd nationally.
Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy returned last week at Arkansas in limited action for the first time this season after being wounded by a stray gunshot in the lower leg back in May. Jamal Roberts (190-1005-9 TD) will still be the workhorse back, but there are probably some packages being put in for Hardy for his first home game of the season.
The Longhorns are 105th in Havoc % allowed while Missouri’s defense ranks 11th.
Eli Drinkwitz is 11-4-1 ATS as a home dog, including the win over Florida earlier this season. On the other hand, Steve Sarkisian is just 24-33 ATS on the road as a head coach. Texas has only had one true road game, which was a victory at Tennessee, but where it committed two turnovers, allowed six sacks, and only generated 262 yards of total offense in a 20-17 grinder win in Knoxville.
Perhaps Texas can defy the odds with its litany of injuries and poor past history on the road. After all, the state turned blue for the first time in almost four decades this past Tuesday. Nevertheless, I am going to make the Longhorns prove it to me.
LSU -6 vs. Alabama
Placed at No. 14 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, LSU certainly has major urgency to get another marquee victory and with Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee left on the schedule, the opportunities are clearly there.
Alabama, who like the Tigers have two losses, was placed at No. 5 in Tuesday’s rankings. Even with a loss here, the Crimson Tide, with wins at Kentucky, vs. South Carolina, and at Mississippi State, are still likely in good shape closing out the schedule with Chattanooga, Vanderbilt, and Auburn.
The Alabama offense has sputtered of late with some offensive line injuries and better defenses figuring out how to take away the deep passing game from Keelon Russell and get pressure up front. Russell has been sacked 14 times in his last four games after only being sacked 8 times in his first four. LSU is tied for 2nd nationally with 34 sacks, only behind Tennessee (35), who sacked Russell five times three weeks ago. Alabama’s offense is 109th in Havoc % allowed and LSU’s defense is 5th in Havoc %.
LSU QB Sam Leavitt is starting to get healthy and is settling into the offense now. Over the last two games, he is 63/83, throwing for 677 yards and 7 TD vs. 0 INT after throwing at least one in each of his first six games.
Tennessee -6.5 vs. Kentucky
Perhaps no team had to feel more disrespected after the first College Football Playoff ranking reveal than Tennessee. They easily handled Alabama three weeks ago and only have the two losses vs. Texas (by 3) and at South Carolina (also by 3). Now the Vols get No. 6 Kentucky with its wins at South Carolina, vs. LSU, and at Oklahoma.
Unlike in previous years, Tennessee is living off its defense, which is ranked in the top 20 in total defense, scoring defense, and yards per play, plus its running game, which is 5th in EPA/Rush and 6th in Rush Success Rate.
In Kentucky’s biggest four victories (at Texas A&M, at South Carolina, vs. LSU, at Oklahoma), the Wildcats were outgained in all four games but were +10 in turnover margin in those same four games.
The Wildcats have been a great story under first-year coach Will Stein, but they have also been very fortunate and gotten a lot of the lucky breaks all season.
This line looks big here, but as Speech from 1990’s hip-hop group Arrested Development once sang, “For some reason it had to be..He guided me to Tennessee.”
Notre Dame -7 (-120) vs. Miami (FL)
Perhaps Notre Dame has looked like it has been preparing for this game all season because they likely have. This is the game that the Irish’s season was always going to come down to in order to return to the College Football Playoff after missing out last year. This is a ‘win and in’ scenario for Notre Dame.
The odds of that win increased with Miami star WR Malachi Toney being ruled out after rolling his ankle in practice mid-week. Toney could likely return for the College Football Playoff.
While Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith remains the Heisman Trophy favorite, Miami QB Darian Mensah and Notre Dame QB CJ Carr are the second and third choices.
Mensah’s campaign certainly will take a hit with Toney’s injury. Oftentimes, we can overvalue injuries, but not in this case. Toney has 83 targets (73 catches, 1027 yards, 13 TD), which is 50 more than Miami’s next receiver. Without Toney, now Notre Dame can play exclusively man coverage. Notre Dame’s defense ranks top 10 in Adjusted EPA/Play and Yards Per Play. Plus, Miami cannot just go with a run-heavy plan, and they only rank 48th in Rush Success Rate and Yards/Rush. Now they will try and run the ball with the Irish defense down four starters from opening weekend out including LB and “green dot guy” Drayk Bowen.
Aside from the Toney injury, the market notices Miami’s defense, while elite against the run (2nd in EPA/Rush, Yards/Rush, and Rush Success Rate), is vulnerable against the pass. The ‘Canes are 77th in Yards/Dropback, 110th in EPA/Dropback, and 103rd in Pass Success Rate. They have let mediocre quarterbacks put up big numbers against them:
10/31: at North Carolina – Billy Edwards 28/34, 341 yards, 4 TD
10/24 vs. Pittsburgh – Holden Geriner/Corey Dailey 21/35, 334 yards, 2 TD
10/17 vs. Florida State – Ashton Daniels 15/28, 298 yards, 4 TD
10/3 at Clemson – Tait Reynolds 29/44, 295 yards
What is CJ Carr going to be able to do those linebackers and defensive backs? Plus, he should have plenty of time to throw considering the Irish OL has only given up two sacks in eight games. Miami’s defense has 24 in eight games, but they have yet to face an elite OL this season.
A great deal has been made of Notre Dame’s schedule (55th), and that is a major reason why they were slotted at No. 11 in the first CFP rankings. With the Group of 6 getting a bid, that is the absolute last spot in the CFP, so the urgency for the Irish has never been higher. On the other hand, Miami’s schedule is only 48th. They have not really been tested by any elite teams this season and yet they have had two one-score victories.
Over the last decade, Notre Dame is 27-8 ATS as single-digit favorites.
BEST OF THE REST
UConn +7 vs. North Carolina
Both teams are 4-4, but North Carolina has played five consecutive high-leverage games. The Tar Heels hung in with Notre Dame, then beat a ranked Pitt team on the road, next won at rival Duke, then lost at home on a two-point conversion in OT vs. Syracuse, and finally went toe-to-toe with No.1 Miami last week in a three-point loss. How much energy does this team have left after that brutal stretch?
Boston College +6.5 vs. Florida State
While Florida State could get the fired head coach bump like Baylor and NC State did last week with outright wins and covers (Maryland pushed +3 vs. Illinois), it may be more likely that the Seminoles pack it in going on the road to Chestnut Hill to face Boston College, who was embarrassed 47-2 at Duke last weekend, but is 4-4 and still fighting for bowl eligibility, where the Eagles must have this one (and vs. Syracuse in two weeks) because they have trips to Notre Dame and Miami in between those two potentially winnable home games.
Ohio State -7 (-120) vs. Oregon
The lookahead line was almost two TDs last week before Oregon rallied for a win over ranked Northwestern, and Ohio State lost at USC with Luke Fahey having to make his first start at QB on the road.
This week, Fahey should have a better outing at home, and the game plan should be a little more open, which Oregon clearly did not see from the USC film last week.
Plus, Oregon’s offense looked the best that it had in a while under assistant QB coach and now interim OC Jay Johnson, who took over for a fired Drew Mehringer last week. However, Ohio State got a look at the offense on film, and Ducks QB Dylan Raiola has been erratic on the road. Furthermore, Oregon is 110th in Rush Success Rate and 115th in EPA/Rush, so Raiola will be forced to make plays and throw several up for grabs.
Ohio State, currently at No. 12, would be out of the College Football Playoff at the moment. This is a “get right” spot for the Buckeyes.
Colorado State +17.5 vs. Boise State
The wildest game of last week’s slate had to be the Pac-12 After Dark matchup between Boise State and Texas State, where the Broncos prevailed 46-45 after giving up 36 unanswered points from a 28-3 halftime lead. The lead changed four times in the fourth quarter.
Boise has the big showdown vs. Oregon State next week that likely decides the host spot for the Pac-12 Championship Game. Boise, as the highest-ranked Group of Six team, would get a playoff spot, so their numbers get inflated.
They will get whatever they want against Colorado State’s defense that ranks dead last (138 out of 138) in most metrics. However, the Rams offense ranks 7th in EPA/play and 16th in overall Success Rate. Colorado State can score enough on a Boise defense that gave up 429 yards and 45 points vs. Texas State last week.
Boise QB Maddux Madsen is questionable with a knee injury and had not practiced as of Thursday.
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