Tuley’s Takes – Week 9 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
The roller-coaster ride of the college football season continues here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. After feeling we had hit midseason form two Saturdays ago in Week 7, the actual midseason of the CFB regular season, we went just 1-3 ATS with our best bets here in Week 8 with our lone win on Arkansas (+7.5) in a 45-42 loss vs. Texas A&M but losses on South Carolina (+5), Purdue (+3) and UL Monroe (+5). That dropped our published record to 15-19 ATS, which is not getting the job done.
Let’s go back to school with four (hopefully) live underdogs on Saturday.
Northwestern (+7.5) at Nebraska
Saturday, 12 Noon ET/ 9 a.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: This early game jumps off the betting board at me as a value play with Northwestern, which shocked Penn State two weeks ago and is coming off a 19-0 shutout of Purdue. Northwestern is getting more than a touchdown in a matchup that looks like it should be a lot closer to pick ’em and at most a field goal, with Nebraska given a few points for home-field advantage. Also, don’t forget the Penn State upset was on the road in Not-So-Happy Valley. Both teams are 5-2 overall, with Northwestern (3-1 in the Big Ten) actually ahead of Nebraska (2-2) in conference play. Nebraska does have the better offense, averaging 36 points per game (No. 29 in the nation), but Northwestern has the better defense, allowing just 15.1 points per game (No. 11). This all makes me believe this will be a one-score game throughout and come down to a FG, plus I don’t think anyone will be surprised if the Wildcats pull another upset.
College Football Best Bet: Northwestern +7.5
Baylor (+3.5) at Cincinnati
Saturday,4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: Cincinnati is 4-0 in the Big 12 (that still sounds weird for an old-school guy like me, but we adjust) and tied for first place with BYU with Arizona State (really?), Texas Tech and Houston are a game back. They’re rightfully favored, but the fact the line isn’t higher is a clear sign from the oddsmakers that this game is a toss-up. Baylor is only 2-2 in conference play and 4-3 overall, so the Bears’ focus is probably to stay bowl-eligible. But this puts them in a great position to “play spoiler” (while also pursuing their own goals). Cincinnati has the edge on defense as the Bearcats allow just 18.9 points per game, but the Baylor offense is good enough to turn this into a shootout with QB Sawyer Robertson (2,376 passing yards, 21 TDs) actually putting up better stats than CIncy’s Brendan Sorsby (1,718 yards, 17 TDs). I’m not going to jump on the Over as oddsmakers have set the total high at 67 points, but I wouldn’t talk anyone out of a Baylor +3.5/Over 67 correlated parlay.
College Football Best Bet: Baylor +3.5
Michigan at Michigan State (+14)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: After winning its three non-conference games, Michigan State is 0-4 in the Big Ten and coming off back-to-back blowout losses to UCLA and Indiana (no shame there). This is a tough team to back. Even though the Spartans have lost three straight in this rivalry, they usually get up for this game as it’s their Super Bowl. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore has already had to warn his team not to overlook their slumping rival. Michigan State has to do a better job of protecting QB Aiden Chiles, but I still like him better than Bryce Underwood. In addition, Michigan might be without RB Justice Haynes, so keep an eye out for that news as this line could rise if he’s cleared to play.
College Football Best Bet: Michigan State +14 or better
Colorado (+13.5) at Utah
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET/7:15 p.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: Yes, I’ve had an up-and-down CFB season, but the same can be true for Colorado coach Deion Sanders with his son Shadeur and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter on to the NFL. The Buffs are 3-4, but they’re off an impressive 24-17 upset of Iowa State two weeks ago before their bye, so there is hope for the rest of the season. This is a tough matchup to try to get back to .500 against No. 23 Utah, but I’m confident they can keep within two touchdowns. As of this writing on Friday afternoon, Utah QB Devon Dampier is still listed as questionable after playing hurt in the Utes’ (“did you say Utes?” – movie reference) 24-21 loss at BYU. If he’s out, that certainly levels the playing field, but I still think an improving Kaidon Salter can help Colorado match Utah score for score (note: this is a situation where I’ll sometime advise bettors to take the underdog in the first half—Colorado +7 1st Half in this game—in case they get run over in the second half).
College Football Best Bet: Colorado +13.5
For more college football Week 9 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 9 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
