Week 12 College Football: UCLA vs. Washington

Grab a six-pack and enjoy a four-pack of college football games on Friday night, as four different conferences will be represented. Wyoming vs. Colorado State and North Texas vs. UTSA both start at 8 p.m. ET, followed by UCLA vs. Washington at 9 and Houston vs. Arizona at 10:15.

That’s a good night of football, especially when you consider that two spreads are under a field goal and one is just above it. We’ll start with the Big Ten game between UCLA and Washington and then look at the other three games.

 

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UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies (-4, 46.5)

9 p.m. ET (FOX)

A little Friday Night Lights on FOX from Husky Stadium in Seattle, where Washington is unbeaten on the season. Their “home” loss was at Lumen Field against Washington State and that is a defeat that has aged a bit better throughout the season. Washington has fallen victim to the long travel of the conference, losing at Rutgers, Iowa, Indiana, and Penn State, with three of those losses by 14+ points.

They are at home here against a surging UCLA team that has rattled off three in a row, including road dubs at Rutgers and Nebraska. After the embarrassing press conference that DeShaun Foster had at Big Ten media days, more money poured in on UCLA’s season win total under, which was a popular bet to begin with. The Bruins actually have a shot at bowl eligibility, but they’ll need an upset this week or next (USC) before facing Fresno State in the finale.

Both teams are 3-4 in Big Ten play, but UCLA is -0.21 yards per play and Washington is +0.47. Washington did not play well at all in Happy Valley last week, getting outgained about 2.5 to 1 by the Nittany Lions. But, they are still better in yards per play differential than UCLA, for whatever that’s worth.

Will Rogers gets the start for Washington here, even though it looks like a disappointing season and he’ll have exhausted his eligibility. Fans and maybe even players are clamoring for Demond Williams Jr., who is thought to be the future at the position. He was the team’s leading rusher last week and leading passer with 60 yards. Rogers had 59 going 10-of-13 with a pick. Williams took over for the second half with Washington down 28-0.

I’m looking at the Under 46.5 here. Rain is in the forecast here, so that could slow down the passing game. It’ll also be kind of a chilly and damp night. Wind isn’t expected to be a factor, but there is some more familiarity between these two teams and the personnel as opposed to facing other Big Ten opponents.

UCLA has found a lot of success lately with the run game and they face a Washington defense allowing nearly five yards per carry, but it takes time to do that.

Pick: Under 46.5

Other Friday Games

Wyoming at Colorado State (-10, 48.5): Wyoming made a QB change to 6-foot-4 Texan Kaden Anderson before last week’s game against New Mexico and it led to a 49-45 shootout, as Anderson threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns. Colorado State has won four in a row and is in the driver’s seat for the Mountain West Championship Game spot against Boise State.

We’ll have to see if Anderson was a byproduct of a terrible Lobos defense or not, but this total has ticked up to 48.5. I agree with the move, but I guess I need to see it again to believe it. New Mexico only gave up 17 points to Colorado State, too.

North Texas (-1.5, 72.5) at UTSA: The Roadrunners are finally hitting their offensive stride in the post-Frank Harris era, as Owen McCown has a 20/4 TD/INT ratio for the season and a 13/2 ratio over his last four games. The UTSA defense has not played well, though, and draws a North Texas offense that is 10th in the nation in yards per play.

The Mean Green defense sits outside the top 100 and UTSA just gave up over seven yards per play to Memphis. This has all the makings of a shootout on the fast track at the Alamodome, as the total implies. As far as the side, UNT has dropped three in a row, but Memphis, Tulane, and Army are all better teams than UTSA. UTSA did beat Memphis, but they were a 7-point home dog. Lean UNT and Over, but this one should be a track meet.

Houston at Arizona (-1, 45.5): Money keeps leaking in on Houston to drive this number lower and lower. These are two ships passing in the night, as Houston powers upstream and Arizona floats downstream. The Cougars just upset Kansas State and have recent wins over TCU and Utah, whereas Arizona has dropped five in a row and three of the last four have been by 23+ points.

Brent Brennan is not doing well with this program. Noah Fifita is likely to be a highly attractive transfer QB this winter and spring. Tetairoa McMillan is heading to the NFL soon. Meanwhile, Zeon Chriss gave Houston a real shot in the arm against the purple-clad Wildcats last week and could do the same against a new set of Wildcats this week. I’ll trust the improving Cougars.

Pick: Houston +1

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