UNLV vs. Boise State
The only conference championship game rematch comes to us from the Mountain West with UNLV vs. Boise State. UNLV had to navigate a remarkably complicated tiebreaker process, one that really screwed over New Mexico, who scored regular season wins over both UNLV and San Diego State, two of the four teams tied at 6-2. Boise State beat New Mexico and UNLV, but did lose to San Diego State. Regardless of the process and the fairness of it, we get this rematch.
If the rematch is a mismatch like this head-to-head series has been, the line move on this game will be correct. Boise State had been gradually growing as a favorite into Tuesday night with minimal signs of slowing down. The Broncos won 56-31 during the regular season and have won 10 straight, including four meetings in the last three years, beating the Rebels 21-7 in last year’s MWC Championship Game and 44-20 in the 2023 version.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 2, 7:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. Check out our Conference Championship Game College Football Betting Hub.
UNLV vs. Boise State (-4, 58.5) Preview
Friday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
The recent head-to-head results aren’t the only reason this line is moving in Boise State’s direction. QB Maddux Madsen makes his return to the Smurf Turf at Albertsons Stadium after getting hurt in the November 1 game against Fresno State. Two games prior to that, Madsen threw for 253 yards and had touchdown passes on four of his 14 completions against UNLV.
His return certainly helps, as Max Cutforth struggled in his absence, but Madsen has undoubtedly missed Ashton Jeanty. He only has a 59.6% completion rate with a 15/7 TD/INT ratio on the season. He completed 62.4% of his passes for more than 3,000 yards with a 23/6 TD/INT ratio last year. Dylan Riley has over 1,000 yards filling those big shoes and timeshare partner Sire Gaines has 5.1 yards per pop, as the two have combined for just shy of 1,850 rushing yards. While not quite the 2,601 that Jeanty ran for, they’ve done admirably and have helped Boise State back into this title game position again.
The Broncos racked up 558 yards and put some distance in the first meeting by outscoring UNLV 28-7 in the second half. The Rebels are honestly fortunate to be in this spot. Not only did they navigate the tiebreaker, but they also overcame one of the largest defensive drops in the nation. The Rebels were 28th in the nation in yards per play under Barry Odom with just 5.04 YPP allowed. This season, under first-year head coach Dan Mullen, the Rebels are 126th in YPP allowed with 6.38.
The offense has been quite a bit better, though, and that’s the side of the bread that Mullen has always had more butter on. UNLV enters conference championship week 10th in yards per play with 7.04 and they’ve been good enough with the ball to offset their issues without it. QB Anthony Colandrea has combined for over 3,600 yards, with more than 3,000 passing and 556 rushing. The Virginia transfer has accounted for 30 total TDs and Jai’Den Thomas has reeled off 7.4 yards per carry as part of a committee that has over 1,600 total rushing yards.
From a yards per play standpoint, Boise State’s defense has improved relative to last season, but they also haven’t had the same game control as they did last season, as teams haven’t been throwing the ball at will in the second half. Of course, the Mountain West also has had some really terrible offensive teams, too, not that it has helped UNLV much.
From an advanced metrics standpoint, things are pretty easy. UNLV is a borderline top-20 offense in EPA/play, but well behind Boise State’s borderline top-30 defense in EPA/play. Also, Boise State’s offensive EPA numbers took a hit with the drop from Madsen to Cutforth, who took seven sacks in three starts and one relief appearance and only had three TD passes against two picks.
UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction
Weather could be a huge factor here, with rainy, damp, foggy conditions and temps in the low 40s. Last year’s game saw some pretty big adjustments in the title game, as Jeanty ran for over 200 yards, but there were only 28 total points and Boise State’s defense made some great adjustments against UNLV’s offense. With a rusty Madsen and both teams likely looking to avoid mistakes, I like the Under 58.5 in this one.
Pick: Under 58.5
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