USC vs. TCU
The USC Trojans and TCU Horned Frogs are set to clash in the Alamodome in San Antonio for the 2025 Alamo Bowl. This is a game in which TCU should have a pretty strong home-field advantage. However, the Horned Frogs will be playing without star quarterback Josh Hoover, who entered the transfer portal. Hoover is one of the many opt-outs and transfers that’ll be missing from this game, making it a bit of a mess to handicap. However, we’ll do our best to break it all down in our USC vs. TCU betting preview.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 27, 12:00 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
Alamo Bowl: USC (-6.5, 55.5) vs. TCU
Tuesday, Dec. 30, 9:00 pm ET (ESPN)
This game will be played pretty damn close to TCU, but the list of advantages the Horned Frogs have over the Trojans might end there. That probably wouldn’t have been true if Hoover was under center. He threw for 3,472 yards with 29 touchdowns this season, and he’ll surely be one of the hottest commodities in the transfer portal. Hoover is probably a little better than USC quarterback Jayden Maiava, and Sonny Dykes is going to have a hard time getting similar production out of backup Ken Seals. And that’s ultimately a big part of the reason the Trojans look like a pretty good play in this game.
When looking at Dropback EPA per play, USC (0.285) blows TCU (0.147) out of the water. And those are the numbers with the Horned Frogs having Hoover. So, with USC having Maiava in the lineup here, this is a game in which the Trojans should have a massive edge when it comes to throwing the ball — even with star wideouts Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane having opted out.
USC is also a much better rushing team than TCU. The Trojans were 15th in the nation in Rush EPA per play (0.124) during the regular season, while the Horned Frogs were just 74th (-0.007).
Statistically, USC is just a much better team than TCU — and they even have the slight edge when looking at EPA per play allowed (-0.081 vs. -0.070). And while the Trojans have a longer list of opt-outs and transfers, they also happen to have the more talented backups. Lincoln Riley has been an animal on the recruiting trail for USC, meaning most of the players that sit out will be replaced by players that are capable of stepping up. And overall, I’m just not sure any of the absences in this game will be felt as much as Hoover’s will.
Look for this to be a relatively high-scoring game, with neither one of these defenses being fully trustworthy when it comes to stopping explosive plays. However, USC should be able to hit a few more with Maiava running the show. The Trojans also have a much better running game, and I’d argue they have a better coaching staff too.
USC also has the opportunity to win 10 games here, so there’s some real motivation. Reaching double-digit wins is always a plus when trying to sell recruits on a destination.
USC vs. TCU Alamo Bowl Prediction
Some of TCU’s traditional defensive numbers look alright when compared to USC, but the scheduled-adjusted advanced metrics favor the the Trojans. USC also has its starting quarterback, while TCU is missing a big-time signal-caller in Hoover. This should turn into a lopsided game at some point, even if the Horned Frogs put up a fight early. I’ll also note that the Trojans are 2-1 against the spread in December bowl games under Riley.
Pick: USC -6.5 (-110)
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