Virginia Cavaliers:

The argument around returning production is more nuanced than most people make it out to be. Virginia is among the nation’s leaders in returning production, but is that really a good thing with a 3-9 team that ranked 115th in red-zone touchdown percentage, 95th in points per game, and 100th in yards per play? Head coach Tony Elliott does have a more veteran roster to work with, but that is hardly a guarantee of success.

This is a team that is 6-16 over the last two seasons and keeps falling further behind the middle of the pack in the conference. On the other hand, Virginia lost by a field goal three times last season and lost by a point to James Madison. Could some positive regression be on the horizon for the Cavaliers?

 

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Offense

UVA has a lot of returning production. Unfortunately, the one loss is a huge one. Malik Washington had 1,426 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. He and Malachi Fields, who is still around, combined for over 74% of the team’s receiving yards. Washington’s receiving yardage total was actually higher than the team’s total rushing yards (1,415). If not for short-yardage back Mike Hollins and his seven rushing scores, the ground game would have looked even worse.

Anthony Colandrea and Tony Muskett had something of a timeshare, due to both performance and injury. They’re both back and the offensive line is a bit stronger, but a 19/14 TD/INT ratio doesn’t inspire much confidence, especially with Washington gone.

Defense

This was one of the youngest defenses in the nation last season due to injury. The Cavaliers gave up over six yards per play, but freshmen were thrown into the fire quickly. Virginia also had a severe lack of negative plays. They had 11 sacks in 12 games. BYU was the only other team with fewer sacks than games played and they were in the Big 12 for the first time, representing a huge step up in class.

Not only that, but Virginia only had 14 takeaways. The defense didn’t help the offense at all in the field position department and didn’t help themselves by giving up 31 plays of 30+ yards, tied for 102nd in the nation. Maybe they’ll be healthier and maybe the kids will take a step forward, but a step isn’t nearly enough.

Outlook

Despite all the doom and gloom written above, my projections call for 4.75 wins, so over the win total of 4.5. However, I only have Virginia favored three times and I’m not sure they’ll be favored over Boston College by Week 6 if Bill O’Brien gets to work quickly. This was also a team that lost a lot of close games last season and their best player is now a Miami Dolphin.

Pick: Under 4.5 Wins

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