Week 0 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Stanford vs. Hawaii (-2.5)
HONOLULU — As a record-setting quarterback, Timmy Chang helped form the identity of Hawaii football. If he’s going to win big as a coach, it’s Chang’s job to develop the program’s next great quarterback.
Micah Alejado appears to be the chosen one. Born in Honolulu and raised in Las Vegas, where he put up stratospheric numbers as a prep passer, Alejado is set to make his second career start when Hawaii plays host to Stanford on college football’s opening day.
The Stanford-Hawaii showdown on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET) will kick off in the middle of the afternoon here, so the teams will take the field under a hot sun and the sellout crowd will be juiced. There is a Super Bowl feel to this game, which will be televised nationally by CBS, around the Hawaii program. It means a lot to Chang and his team. It also means something more to us at VSiN because we will host the PrimeTime show from the stadium from 7-11 p.m. ET today and stage the College Football Tailgate Show from 1-4 p.m. ET on gameday.
Hawaii opened as a 2.5-point underdog and has flipped to a 2.5-point favorite. When Chang was asked Thursday about the move in the betting line, he danced around the question as most coaches would. He did praise his young quarterback and hyped the type of offense he’s about to roll out.
“Hawaii has an identity of throwing the football,” Chang said. “If you go to different places across the country, they have a brand of football. We throw the ball on this rock.”
In other words, this is not Iowa. The Rainbow Warriors will throw it a lot and Alejado will pull the trigger. In the 2024 regular-season finale, Alejado made his only start and made it count. He completed 37 of 57 passes for 469 yards and five touchdowns while running for 54 yards in Hawaii’s 38-30 victory over New Mexico.
Alejado did not throw an interception against the Lobos, but that’s no surprise. In his junior and senior seasons at Bishop Gorman High in Las Vegas, Alejado passed for a total of 89 touchdowns with only two interceptions while the team went 25-1. Still, probably because of his size, the 5-foot-10 Alejado did not get many scholarship offers and chose Hawaii over UNLV.
Alejado will be counting on a pair of big-play receivers — Nick Cenacle and Pofele Ashlock — and running backs Cam Barfield and Landon Sims to help him move the offense. The Cardinal defense was a disaster last season while allowing 33.7 ppg.
After four consecutive 3-9 seasons, Stanford is starting over. Troy Taylor was fired as coach amid controversy and the program’s new general manager, Andrew Luck, hired former NFL head coach Frank Reich as the interim replacement. Luck and Reich are dealing with a roster makeover and a total rebuild, so it’s a mystery team.
Hawaii’s coaches don’t know much about the team they are preparing to play, but it is known that Oregon State transfer Ben Gulbranson will start at quarterback. Gulbranson is a decent passer with limited mobility. Micah Ford is the Cardinal’s featured running back. It’s likely that Reich’s play-calling will emphasize the run to burn clock and slow the pace against Hawaii, which wants to play faster. The total opened at 55.5 at DraftKings and has dropped to 50.5, and the move to the Under makes sense.
Hawaii appears to have the more talented team and should win if Alejado avoids turnovers, which he typically does. He’s still an inexperienced quarterback and this game will be his biggest stage. Maybe Luck and Reich will reveal some surprises and Stanford will be better than expected, but I need to see that to believe it. I bet Hawaii +1.5 a few weeks ago and will stick with the Warriors.
Best Bet: Hawaii -2.5
Iowa State vs. Kansas State (-3)
The season opens with this Big 12 battle in Dublin, Ireland, where the Wildcats are laying a field goal after topping out as 4-point favorites. The Cyclones have won four of the past five meetings, including a 29-21 victory over Kansas State last season.
Iowa State should have a slight advantage at quarterback with Rocco Becht, who has 27 career starts. Becht passed for 25 touchdowns with nine interceptions last season. Becht did lose his top receivers, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, to the NFL Draft and that’s a concern. K-State quarterback Avery Johnson was 12-for-28 in the loss to the Cyclones. The Wildcats probably have the superior running attack, led by former Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards, and will try to grind it out.
Kansas State’s Chris Klieman is usually a bet-on coach, but I’m taking the other side based on the number. My ratings show this as a pick-em game.
Best Bet: Iowa State +3
Last season: 44-43-2 against the spread
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