Week 1 College Football Predictions

Only crumbs of the mozz sticks and potato skins remain on the plate; in other words, we’ve had our appetizer (Week 0), and now it’s time for the main course (Week 1). We’ve got a full slate of college football games, and it feels so good to be back. Our USC/SJSU Under in Week 0 did not come through, and the TSI-adjusted final score confirmed it was not the right play, so that one’s on me. I’ve got a couple early week bets I like, so let’s get to the TSI projections and my best bets for Week 1.

DateNeutral?HomeAwayTSI SpreadTSI Total
9/3/2026Georgia TechColorado8.551.5
9/3/2026RutgersU Mass32.054.5
9/3/2026Wake ForestAkron23.045.0
9/4/2026Eastern MichiganSan Jose State-2.052.0
9/4/2026Michigan StateToledo12.548.5
9/4/2026StanfordMiami (FL)-22.048.5
9/4/2026USCFresno State20.551.5
9/5/2026AlabamaEast Carolina22.047.0
9/5/2026YAuburnBaylor6.553.0
9/5/2026CaliforniaUCLA0.553.5
9/5/2026CincinnatiBoston College8.054.0
9/5/2026Colorado StateWyoming-1.043.5
9/5/2026DukeTulane7.055.5
9/5/2026FloridaFAU25.054.0
9/5/2026HawaiiUNLV0.057.0
9/5/2026HoustonOregon State22.551.0
9/5/2026IllinoisUAB28.556.0
9/5/2026IndianaNorth Texas37.055.0
9/5/2026IowaNorthern Illinois33.546.5
9/5/2026James MadisonLiberty4.554.5
9/5/2026LSUClemson10.046.0
9/5/2026MemphisArkansas State12.057.0
9/5/2026MichiganWestern Michigan29.547.0
9/5/2026Mississippi StateUL Monroe27.554.5
9/5/2026NebraskaOhio22.545.0
9/5/2026NevadaWestern Kentucky-7.052.0
9/5/2026New MexicoCentral Michigan9.549.5
9/5/2026Ohio StateBall State53.553.5
9/5/2026OklahomaUTEP38.548.0
9/5/2026OregonBoise State26.553.0
9/5/2026Penn StateMarshall23.058.0
9/5/2026PittMiami (OH)18.548.0
9/5/2026South CarolinaKent State36.050.0
9/5/2026South FloridaFIU11.057.0
9/5/2026TexasTexas State31.061.0
9/5/2026Texas A&MMissouri State35.553.0
9/5/2026TroySam Houston12.054.0
9/5/2026TulsaOklahoma State-10.054.5
9/5/2026WashingtonWashington State22.547.5
9/5/2026West VirginiaCoastal Carolina16.554.0
9/6/2026YLouisvilleOle Miss-5.052.5
9/6/2026YNotre DameWisconsin23.547.0
9/7/2026Florida StateSMU-4.552.0

Best Bets:

Houston -20.5 vs Oregon State

On paper, this game is a total mismatch on both sides of the ball; my good friend and CFB handicapper and former FBS coach, Zak Bigelow, has built a guide of roster construction and talent acquisition, and his roster ratings have Houston with a 96.4 to 23.9 advantage overall. Offensively, Houston holds a 99.3 to 14.5 advantage, and defensively, Houston has an 85.5 to 35.5 advantage. TSI projects Houston -22.5, so we’re getting the good side of 21, which would be key in this point range. Houston returns 71% of its offensive production while Oregon State returns just 49%, and defensively those numbers are 58% and 44%, respectively. I think Houston rolls in this game. This play is good to -21. 

West Virginia vs Coastal Carolina UNDER 56.5

TSI projects 54 points in this game, and with 55 being the most key number in CFB totals, I love being on the other side of that with room to spare. On the field, I don’t expect much of a contribution from Coastal here against a much-improved WVU squad. The Chants are breaking in a new OC, Nick Petrino, who last year at Missouri State was 86th nationally in pace of play. Coastal also has a new head coach, Ryan Beard, who is 67% to the under in his career. The Bigelow (aka Coach Biggs) numbers I referenced earlier have Coastal as the third-worst offense in the Sun Belt this year, with WVU having a mid-tier Big 12 offense. This should be something like a 35-14 type win for the Mountaineers.

Wyoming vs Colorado State UNDER 47.5 

Any time I see Wyoming or Colorado State play, my mind immediately looks to see if TSI aligns with an Under play, so you can imagine how much my eyes widened when I saw this Week 1 matchup. TSI projects just 43.5 points in this game, and Wyoming coach Jay Sawvel is 67% to the Under in his career. These are the #105 and #111 rosters in terms of overall talent, and the #92 and #126 in offensive rating. These teams averaged 112th in offensive success rate in 2025, while Wyoming was top 30 in defensive success rate last year. The Cowboys and Rams averaged #106 in pace last year. Honestly, if this game ends 17-14, I don’t think I’d be surprised one bit. 

For more Week 1 college football picks and predictions, visit the VSiN Week 1 College Football Hub.

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