Week 1 College Football Best Bets:

FLORIDA +3 over Miami (FL)

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

When two of college football’s greatest coaches meet for a Saturday showdown, there is always a chance the game could turn into an instant classic. Well, that’s not going to be the case when Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier go head to head, but the teams will be worth watching anyway.

 

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Cristobal, 12-13 in two years at Miami (FL), is on the hot seat. Napier, 11-14 in two years at Florida, is probably on a hotter seat. This will not be a Garry Kasparov-Bobby Fischer chess match between clumsy coaches known for game-management mistakes. Still, the rivalry is meaningful, the teams are talented and the stakes will be high in The Swamp.

The Hurricanes seem to have the talent edge, starting with quarterback Cam Ward and running back Damien Martinez, who rushed for 1,185 yards last season at Oregon State. Ward, considered the top quarterback in the transfer portal, passed for 48 touchdowns the past two seasons at Washington State. Ward can be inconsistent, however, and he’s adjusting to a new offense.

Graham Mertz was far from a star in his three seasons as a starter at Wisconsin, but he looked like a different quarterback last season for the Gators while leading the SEC in completion percentage (72.9) and passing for 20 touchdowns with three interceptions. Mertz is behind a solid offensive line and will get support from running back Montrell Johnson Jr.

The Hurricanes played three big road games in ACC play last year and lost all three. I usually prefer the ‘dogs, especially when the home-field advantage is strong. With the line pinballing from 2.5 to 3 and back to 2.5, I took the field goal with the Gators.

I rarely recommend buying a half-point, but will in this case if the +3 does not resurface before game time. The betting public typically pounds the favorites early in the season — Colorado on Thursday, for example — so this line could move again on Saturday.

College Football Best Bet: Florida +3

Four more plays for the weekend (Home team in CAPS):

WEST VIRGINIA (+8) over Penn State 

12:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Mountaineers won nine games last season to save coach Neal Brown’s job. In home games against power-conference opponents, Brown went 4-1. He welcomes back senior quarterback Garrett Greene, leading rushers Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson and several veteran offensive linemen and receivers. Is the defense tough enough to contain Nittany Lions running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton? That’s a concern. I bet on Penn State to be a playoff team, but the Lions will get a serious test in Morgantown, where the fans are already in a frenzy.

College Football Best Bet: West Virginia +8

Wyoming (+7) over ARIZONA STATE 

10:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

Craig Bohl’s 10-year run as Cowboys coach is done, but he left the program in good shape and is replaced by former defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel. If 6-foot-5 quarterback Evan Svoboda is worthy of the hype, Wyoming will be a dangerous team in the Mountain West. Top running back Harrison Waylee returns, and the defense is legit. The Sun Devils, 3-9 and near the bottom of the nation in several key defensive stats last season, will start a young quarterback in Sam Leavitt. Arizona State will rely heavily on stud running back Cameron Skattebo.

College Football Best Bet: Wyoming +7

Notre Dame-TEXAS A&M (Under 47) 

7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

Who knows new Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard better than new Texas A&M coach Mike Elko? Leonard played for Elko at Duke. Leonard is behind an Irish offensive line that has issues with injuries and inexperience, and that spells trouble against a fierce Aggies defensive front. A Notre Dame defense that allowed 15.9 ppg last season returns nine starters and will rank among the nation’s best. The defenses are the strengths of both teams, so don’t expect many offensive fireworks.

College Football Best Bet: Under 47

USC (+4.5) over LSU 

Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

The crowd, based on what we’re seeing in Las Vegas, will be pro-Tigers on Sunday night. But this game is not in Baton Rouge, and I would not bet the Trojans if that were the case. USC has enough talent to compete in this matchup. An awful defense that allowed 34.4 ppg last season will be improved due to the hiring of coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who elevated UCLA from 87th to 11th in total defense in one year. Caleb Williams is history, but the Trojans should be fine with redshirt junior Miller Moss, who passed for 372 yards and six touchdowns in a Holiday Bowl victory over Louisville. LSU must replace quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was more valuable to his team than any other player last season.

College Football Best Bet: USC +4.5

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