MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, September 5.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft enters this start in good form with two runs or fewer allowed in each of his past four starts and an overall 3.59 ERA with 1.2 home runs and two walks per nine innings. Angels starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has been shaky this season with a 5.65 ERA, 1.5 home runs, and 3.3 walks per nine innings. The Angels are last in the league in scoring since the All-Star Break with 3.3 runs per game and are also last in the league in scoring at home with 3.6 runs per game compared to 4.6 runs per game away from home. The Pirates are second in the league in scoring at home with 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -1.5 +106 and Total 8.2
7:05 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt is pitching to quite a bit of contact, registering a 4.97 ERA with 6.2 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings. Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray is getting his lowest strikeout rate since the 2016 season with eight strikeouts per nine innings, and while he owns a 2.92 ERA, his fielding independent is much higher at 3.55. He is supported by a lineup that leads the American League in scoring since the All-Star Break with over 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Orioles Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
7:10 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer has been significantly better recently than his season numbers of a 6.16 ERA with 1.9 home runs and 4.1 walks per nine innings would indicate, as he has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his past five starts. The Royals are a significantly better team at home than on the road, as they are last in scoring on the road with 3.6 runs per game and are 26-46, while their home record was 37-32 entering the series with 4.9 runs per game. Starting pitcher Seth Lugo has pitched better than his 5.17 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 4.17 fielding independent with 1.1 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings. His ERA drops to 3.99 at home with less than 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed, and the Blue Jays are 29th in the league in scoring with four runs per game.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -110
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -133
7:15 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher Robbie Ray has a solid 3.14 ERA this season, but his 4.64 fielding independent with 7.6 strikeouts and 4.4 walks per nine innings points toward regression. Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodón has a 3.20 ERA this season with 9.6 strikeouts and 4.7 walks per nine innings. Though he has pitched only 12 2/3 innings in his three starts since coming off the injured list, with less than five innings in every start, he has a 3.55 ERA in this span. The Yankees support him with a bullpen that ranks first in ERA at 3.08.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -102 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -108 and Total 8.2
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt has been superb since rejoining the starting rotation on June 30. He has been the most profitable starting pitcher in baseball in this span, yielding a profit of over $900 if you bet $100 on the moneyline in each of his 12 starts, with the team going 10-2. Pfaadt has posted a 2.22 ERA with 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed, while Astros starting pitcher Ethan Pecko has a 6.23 ERA in his three career MLB starts with four home runs and nine walks allowed in 13 innings. He faces a Diamondbacks lineup that is eighth in scoring since the All-Star Break with over 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -105
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -119
8:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
Mason Adams is making just his third career start and, in his first two starts, allowed just three runs in nine innings, but also allowed five walks and two home runs. He faces a Cardinals lineup that is third in the league in road scoring with 5.2 runs per game, while Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore has struggled with a 5.41 ERA, 1.7 home runs, and 3.1 walks per nine innings, with at least three runs allowed in four of his past five starts.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Rockies Over 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 11.7
