Week 0 is in the books, which means that it is time to evaluate the performances of the 11 FBS teams that were in action. Before I get into my process of updating teams from a power ratings standpoint, I want to reiterate some key points from last week’s initial posting.
Power ratings are a living organism. They are always changing and adapting to different variables and they are never going to be perfect. The goal is that the lines in the market move towards the lines in your power ratings. If that is happening at a high rate, then your set of power ratings is pretty successful. If not, then there are additional adjustments that need to be made. (Read about how I make my power ratings HERE.)
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Power ratings are designed to help get out in front of the market moves. The idea is that if your line on a game is -6 and the market line is -2.5, you can jump in and get a good number with the expectation that the line moves towards yours. Therefore, these are designed to really be utilized the most early in the week, which means making bets early in the week. That can be uncomfortable for some people, but the best indicator of future success is getting value relative to the closing line. That’s the practice we’re aiming for here.
Lastly, this is primarily designed to be an educational and informational tool. I’m looking for early-week bets to get good numbers, but I’m also trying to help readers look at different ways of approaching college football. Most bettors simply take whatever numbers are out there on game day. That isn’t the best strategy for success.
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Now, let’s talk about the process I go through each week to update my power ratings. Before the games are even played, I figure out my lines for the following week. I want to avoid overreactions and having my numbers in place before the games are played will keep me from making too big of an adjustment.
Here is the three-step process I use to update my power ratings:
1. Compare my line with the closing line: The most efficient way to see if you had a good line on a game is to compare it with where the line closed. Millions of bets come in worldwide on these games and the closing line is going to be the best indicator of market perception and betting activity. If my line was -10 and the game closed -14, it is a sign that I need to adjust one or both of the teams. If my line was -10 and the game opened there, but closed -6, then I have to adjust.
2. Box score study: This one is really important in my mind. I go through and look at the box scores for every game. How did the game play out? What are the reasons it didn’t play to expectation? Was there a big turnover margin discrepancy? Did a team squander red-zone chances? Missed field goals? Interceptions deep in their own territory? What happened in that game that led to the final result? How much should I take that into account when adjusting a team?
This week’s shining example is Nevada vs. New Mexico State. Nevada won 23-12 and covered, but was %plussign% 5 in turnover margin and got outgained for the game. We usually see line moves against teams with misleading results and we see one here with Nevada this week.
3. Check for injuries: This is not easy in college football. Major injuries on major teams get national publicity. Injuries in small conferences do not. I crowdsource a variety of places to get this intel to make sure that I’m on top of as many of the player losses as possible.
Early in the season, I may adjust faster or slower to some teams. I put in a lot of hours putting together power ratings and preseason thoughts that I don’t want to just ignore because of a couple of data points. Other times, I’ll admit defeat on a team quickly to ensure that I’m not too far off of market, losing money on that team all the time.
Each week, I’ll post my updated 1 through 131 power ratings, the plus-minus (up/down) adjustments I made on teams (along with explanations on the biggest movers), my lines for all of the FBS vs. FBS games and then suggested bets based on my power ratings.
Here are my Week 1 Power Ratings:
