Week 1 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 1 College Football Power Ratings:

Our first college football data points are in the books and Week 0 was a tremendous one for underdogs. Pups covered in all four games with an FBS team, including the two FBS vs. FBS games, which featured Georgia Tech as an outright winner and Nevada should have been one, too.

You don’t want to overreact to one game, as teams will play their best games and worst games at some point and it’s entirely possible that the first one falls under that criteria. That being said, you still want to be cognizant of the fact that you may have simply been wrong about a team for a variety of reasons. 

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Watching the games certainly helps, but there are only so many hours in the day, only so many TVs on the wall, and only so many games broadcast in your area. With that, here are my three steps to adjusting my power ratings.

1. Compare my line to the closing line

Football betting markets are very efficient. Early in the season, both sides of the counter are trying to figure things out, but we’re also both going to be making adjustments. The closing line is a barometer of how a pair of teams were valued going into the game.

2. Study the box score

The final score says a lot, but how we got to that point says a lot more to me. Georgia Tech held Florida State under 300 total yards (4.3 yards per play). There was nothing fluky about the Seminoles’ offensive performance. They didn’t have any turnovers, didn’t have a ton of penalties, and didn’t create many explosive plays. That is a major concern with all summer to prep for this one.

New Mexico gave up 362 rushing yards to an FCS team. While they covered wire-to-wire and probably should have won, they were badly outgained and mostly outplayed.

Things like that are a little bit more subjective when it comes to making an adjustment, but that’s the “art” to the “science” part. Were there a lot of red zone turnovers? Missed field goals? Drives that stalled just outside FG range? A long defensive TD? Those are some of the many things I’m looking for in the box score.

3. Look for injury information

Like I said, I can’t watch every game, but there are a lot of good resources out there to let me know if any key players got hurt. Sometimes we don’t get it right away and a mid-week adjustment will be necessary. For the purposes of this article, I’m not going to repost with each  bit of info, so I’ll put up my ratings on Sunday or first thing Monday morning and that’ll be what we roll with.

Obviously this week and all future weeks will be chock full of updates and talking points. For now, just some small updates to the teams that played. I’m sticking with my preseason thoughts on the other 128 FBS teams. Also, I do NOT power-rate FCS, so I won’t have any lines on those games.

Here are my Week 1 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	95	3
2	Ohio State	93	3.5
3	Oregon	91.5	3.5
4	Texas	90	3.5
5	Alabama	89	3.5
6	Mississippi	86	3.5
7	Notre Dame	86	3.5
8	LSU	85	3.5
9	Penn State	84.5	3.5
10	Michigan	83	3.5
11	Oklahoma	83	3.5
12	Missouri	82	2
13	Tennessee	82	3.5
14	Clemson	81.5	3
15	Texas A&M	81.5	3
16	Florida State	81	2
17	Kansas State	79.5	3.5
18	Utah	79.5	3.5
19	Miami (Florida)	79	2
20	USC	78	2
21	Arizona	77	2
22	Oklahoma State	77	3.5
23	Iowa State	76.5	2
24	Auburn	76	2
25	Kansas	76	2
26	Kentucky	76	2.5
27	Louisville	76	3.5
28	Virginia Tech	75.5	2
29	TCU	75	2.5
30	Washington	75	2
31	Iowa	74.5	2.5
32	Florida	74	2
33	North Carolina State	74	3.5
34	Wisconsin	74	2
35	SMU	73.5	3.5
36	South Carolina	73	2.5
37	UCF	73	3
38	West Virginia	73	3
39	Georgia Tech	73	1
40	Nebraska	72.5	2
41	Texas Tech	72	2.5
42	Boise State	71.5	2.5
43	Maryland	71	2
44	Memphis	71	2
45	North Carolina	71	2.5
46	UCLA	71	2
47	Colorado	70	2
48	Arkansas	69	2
49	California	69	2
50	Rutgers	69	2
51	Baylor	68.5	2
52	Liberty	68.5	3
53	Tulane	68	2
54	Appalachian State	67.5	2.5
55	Minnesota	66.5	2
56	Northwestern	66.5	1.5
57	Syracuse	66.5	2.5
58	Cincinnati	66	2
59	Oregon State	66	3.5
60	South Florida	66	2
61	UTSA	66	3.5
62	Washington State	66	2.5
63	Illinois	65.5	2
64	Pittsburgh	65.5	2
65	Virginia	65.5	2
66	BYU	65	2
67	Duke	65	3
68	Fresno State	65	2.5
69	Indiana	65	1.5
70	Michigan State	65	2.5
71	Mississippi State	65	2
72	Purdue	65	2
73	James Madison	64	3.5
74	Texas State	64	2
75	UNLV	64	2
76	Wake Forest	64	2.5
77	Arizona State	63.5	2
78	Houston	63.5	2
79	Stanford	63.5	1
80	Boston College	63	1.5
81	Wyoming	62.5	2.5
82	Louisiana-Lafayette	61	3
83	Arkansas State	61	2
84	Miami (Ohio)	61	3
85	Air Force	60	2.5
86	Troy	60	2.5
87	Western Kentucky	60	2.5
88	Bowling Green	59	2
89	Jacksonville State	59	2.5
90	Rice	59	2
91	Toledo	59	2.5
92	Coastal Carolina	58	2.5
93	Colorado State	58	1
94	San Diego State	58	2
95	South Alabama	58	2.5
96	Georgia Southern	57.5	2
97	Northern Illinois	57.5	1.5
98	East Carolina	57	2
99	Marshall	57	2
100	North Texas	57	2
101	UAB	57	2.5
102	Vanderbilt	57	1
103	Army	56	2
104	Old Dominion	56	2
105	San Jose State	56	2
106	Navy	55	2
107	Western Michigan	55	2
108	Ohio	54.5	2
109	Florida Atlantic	54	2
110	Utah State	54	2
111	Central Michigan	53.5	2
112	Hawai’i	53	2
113	Tulsa	53	1
114	Georgia State	52.5	2
115	Southern Mississippi	52.5	2
116	Charlotte	51	1
117	Ball State	50.5	2
118	Nevada	50.5	1.5
119	Middle Tennessee	50	2
120	New Mexico State	50	2.5
121	Connecticut	49	2
122	Sam Houston State	49	2
123	Buffalo	48.5	1
124	Eastern Michigan	48	2
125	Louisiana Tech	48	2
126	Louisiana-Monroe	47	2
127	Massachusetts	47	1
128	New Mexico	47	1
129	Akron	46	1
130	UTEP	46	2
131	Florida International	45.5	1
132	Kent State	45	2
133	Temple	44	2
134	Kennesaw State	43	2

Week 0 PR Adjustments:

Up: Georgia Tech +2, Nevada +1.5, New Mexico +2

Down: Florida State -3.5, SMU -3, Hawaii -1.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Florida State -3.5: The Seminoles defense played well for the most part, but the rebuilt offense looked all out of sorts. DJ Uiagalelei had negative Air Yards Per Pass at halftime and the running game with two pretty highly-touted players in Lawrance Toafili and Roydell Williams had just 3.2 yards per carry. Toafili had 28 yards on one of his eight carries and four yards combined on the other seven. They should improve as the year goes along, but that was ugly.

SMU -3: I was high on SMU, as my projected win total was a full win higher than the market, so this is a bit of a correction on my end after seeing a game. Preston Stone doesn’t look right in the early going and that is a bad Nevada team that the Mustangs nearly lost to.

New Mexico +2: I just wanted to elaborate on this one since I mentioned above how bad the box score looks. New Mexico’s defense couldn’t get off the field. The Lobos actually had six yards per play despite going 1-of-8 on third down. I was also over a win lower on them in the win total market, so it makes sense to adjust up a bit.

Here are my Week 1 college football betting lines:

(sorted by Rotation Number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
8/29	North Carolina	Minnesota	+2.5
	Coastal Carolina	Jacksonville State	-3.5
8/30	Temple	Oklahoma	-42.5
	TCU	Stanford	+10.5
	Western Michigan	Wisconsin	-21
	Florida Atlantic	Michigan State	-13.5
8/31	FIU	Indiana	-21
	Kent State	Pitt	-22.5
	UConn	Maryland	-24
	Kennesaw State	UTSA	-26.5
	Clemson	Georgia (1 pt HFA – Atlanta)	-14.5
	Eastern Michigan	UMass	PK
	Ohio	Syracuse	-14.5
	Georgia State	Georgia Tech	-21.5
	Old Dominion	South Carolina	-19.5
	James Madison	Charlotte	+12
	Penn State	West Virginia	+8.5
	Boise State	Georgia Southern	+12
	Southern Miss	Kentucky	-26
	Akron	Ohio State	-50.5
	New Mexico	Arizona	-32
	Wyoming	Arizona State	-3
	Miami (FL)	Florida	+3
	Colorado State	Texas	-35.5
	UTEP	Nebraska	-28.5
	Miami (OH)	Northwestern	-7
	UNLV	Houston	-1.5
	North Texas	South Alabama	-3.5
	Nevada	Troy	-12
	Virginia Tech	Vanderbilt	+17.5
	Sam Houston	Rice	-12
	UCLA	Hawaii	+16
	Western Kentucky	Alabama	-32.5
	Fresno State	Michigan	-21.5
	Notre Dame	Texas A&M	+1.5
9/1	LSU	USC (N – Las Vegas)	+7
9/2	Boston College	Florida State	-20

Some notes on my biggest line differences:

North Carolina -2.5 (+1.5) at Minnesota: This line is starting to swing in UNC’s direction and they may very well be favored before too long. As I wrote about in our 2024 College Football Betting Guide best bets section, I’m high on the Tar Heels this season and it starts here for me.

Western Michigan +21.5 (+24.5) at Wisconsin: Looks like I’m a tad low on the Badgers to open up the year. This is definitely not me having a desire to back the Broncos, but Wisconsin needs to prove it to me to open up the year. This isn’t a bet, but a game I’ll follow closely on Friday.

James Madison -12 (-6.5) at Charlotte: The biggest overlay of the week for me. I’m not sure JMU will really miss a beat with a new coach and a new roster, as they’ve still got a lot of really good players. Charlotte is a straight fade for me with Biff Poggi. I’m not a believer. Perhaps I’m missing an injury or some suspensions here, but I disagree with this line coming down.

Wyoming +6.5 (+3) at Arizona State: I low-key like the Cowboys this season. I think Jay Sawvel will run this a lot like Craig Bohl did, but maybe with some more offensive creativity. Arizona State didn’t get a lot of physicality in the Pac-12 and won’t see much in the Big 12. I’m not sure they’re ready for it here.

That said, I am a little worried about the weather in the second half for the boys from Laramie. The forecasted high is 105 in Tempe on Saturday. At least it’s a late game.

Northwestern -7 (-3.5) vs. Miami (OH): DraftKings is even below the key number here at 2.5. I know it’s a weird year for Northwestern, but I think David Braun is a damn good coach. That’s what we saw last year and this is still Big Ten vs. MAC.

North Texas +5.5 (+3.5) at South Alabama: I’m not sure I’m completely committed to firing on UNT here, but South Alabama is a team I’m expecting a major step back from and I think the Mean Green could make some strides. I like their head coach Eric Morris and I know they can score. It’s a high total, but the Over intrigues me with Kane Wommack and Corey Batoon gone from the South Alabama sidelines.

Notre Dame -1.5 (+3) at Texas A&M: I think I just have a bad line and a bad power rating on both teams here. I’m going to wait and see, but I think I’m overvaluing ND and undervaluing A&M a little. I may make some sizable adjustments with these two if this game plays out as the market thinks it will with a lot of Texas A&M money.

LSU -7 (-4.5) vs. USC: The standalone Sunday game is a really good one. I’m interested to see how it plays out. This is one where I think I might be high on LSU and low on USC, but we’ll see if USC’s defense is truly improved under D’Anton Lynn. If so, they’ll get an immediate bump if Miller Moss looks any good.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.