The 2026 tennis season reaches its peak with the 2026 US Open in New York, with the final Grand Slam of the year getting underway at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. The summer hard-court tune-ups are behind us, and now the margin for error disappears as the best players in the world battle across best-of-five and grueling best-of-three tests in the Flushing Meadows heat.
The fortnight always brings unmatched betting value on both tours, offering an early look at physical durability, tactical adjustments, and draw paths that could shape the championship picture. There is no shortage of high-level matchups to break down, and I’ll be delivering daily betting analysis and best bets throughout the tournament.
With that in mind, keep reading for my top tennis picks and best bets for Day 3 of the US Open on Tuesday, September 1.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Marcos Giron vs. Ignacio Buse
Buse just won a title in Winston-Salem, but he’s still 6-7 on hard courts in main draws at the ATP level. Winning last week’s event was a step in the right direction, but defeating Adam Walton, Daniel Altmaier, Juan Manuel Cerundolo, Benjamin Bonzi, and Arthur Fery doesn’t quite move the needle. In fact, even with those victories, Buse’s TennisViz Performance Rating is just 7.08 on outdoor hard courts over the last 52 weeks. Meanwhile, Giron’s Performance Rating is 7.22 on outdoor hard courts in that same span.
It might seem like Buse is a much better player than Giron, and the recent results definitely suggest he is. However, Giron has the superior hard-court resume, he’s more battle-tested in best-of-five matches, and he’ll be playing in front of an American crowd. All of that makes him intriguing at +125 odds.
Giron also happens to have a few things working for him here, tactically. The American doesn’t need much time to unload on his groundstrokes, as he has a very compact game. Buse takes a little bit longer, even for his big forehand. Giron also happens to have the better backhand between these players, and the American is a better defender.
Bet: Giron ML (+125)
Gael Monfils vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Does Monfils have the legs to win a best-of-five match? That’s the big question heading into this match. The 39-year-old, playing in his final US Open, hasn’t won a match at a major this season. On top of that, the Frenchman has lost five of his last six overall matches. That could be a lot for him to overcome, but I happen to think he’ll do it.
For as many things as Monfils has working against him, Daniel Vallejo is just 3-4 on hard courts in his ATP career. Monfils also has much bigger weapons than his opponent, headlined by a massive serve and a big forehand. Monfils is also the definition of a showman, so we should see him rise to the occasion in front of a New York crowd.
It’s just hard to really feel like there’s less than a 50% chance Monfils will win. I don’t think the Frenchman will last much longer after the opening round, but that’s neither here nor there.
Bet: Monfils ML (+116)
Robin Montgomery vs. Maria Sakkari
Sakkari has been much better in 2026 than she was in 2025, but she’s no longer a player that opponents fear in a main draw. Her hold percentage is well below 70%, and being a good returner doesn’t quite make up for that. With that in mind, Montgomery is a player that should feel great about advancing, and I’d be surprised if the American doesn’t.
Montgomery is way more talented than her ranking of 187 would suggest, and she has been extremely productive recently. Since the start of grass-court season, Montgomery is 14-2 and claimed a title in ‘s-Hertogenbosch. Montgomery just has a big game, which should allow her to push Sakkari around a bit. And as long as Montgomery isn’t making more errors than usual, she should have plenty of chances to win here. I just don’t trust the Sakkari serve one bit, so Montgomery should regularly see good looks at breaks.
Bet: Montgomery ML (+130)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
