Week 10 College Football Power Ratings and Projections for Every Game

Week 10 College Football Power Ratings

As another week of seemingly random college football results came in, I was left once again left thinking about how valuable the power ratings process is. Even with all of the data points I have on these teams, including comparisons between my numbers and the market numbers, it seems like we’re just guessing as to how these teams will perform. Wisconsin holds USC and UCLA to 24 points and then gives up 30 to Iowa in a shutout loss. Cincinnati beat Texas Tech and then got smoked at home by Utah the next week. Auburn went from beating Georgia to losing consecutive games to LSU and Ole Miss by 51 combined points.

Maybe we should have seen SMU’s performance coming, as the Mustangs hadn’t played on the road since mid-September. Maybe we should have seen Ohio State’s performance coming, though USC lost 24-7 to Wisconsin. But, it all seems pretty random nowadays. I’ve been trying to point to the dispersal of talent via the transfer portal as the reason why, as the gaps between teams aren’t as big as they used to be, which makes both sides less projectable. There might be legs to that. There might not be.

I do still like having that baseline to refrain from overreacting from one week to the next, especially because those wildly disparate performances are easy to overreact to. But, I’m certainly not using my power ratings to the degree that I have in past seasons. It might just be an outlier season and we may see things play out like anticipated more next season or the season after. This offseason, though, I will have to really evaluate my process and see if it is still as meaningful as it once was.

But, my numbers are updated and my lines have been put together and now it’s time to see how they stack up with the betting market.

Week 10 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	93.5	2.5
2	LSU	89	3
3	Notre Dame	89	3.5
4	Mississippi	88	3.5
5	Miami (Florida)	87.5	3
6	Alabama	86.5	3.5
7	Texas	86	3.5
8	Ohio State	83	3.5
9	Indiana	82.5	3.5
10	Florida	82	2
11	Wake Forest	82	2
12	Tennessee	81.5	2.5
13	Missouri	81	3.5
14	South Carolina	81	2.5
15	Utah	80	2.5
16	Houston	79.5	2
17	Oregon	79.5	3.5
18	Auburn	78.5	2
19	Northwestern	78.5	1.5
20	Oklahoma	78.5	3
21	Kentucky	78	2
22	Oklahoma State	78	2
23	UCLA	78	1.5
24	BYU	77.5	3.5
25	Texas Tech	77.5	3.5
26	USC	77.5	3
27	SMU	77	3.5
28	Iowa	76.5	3.5
29	Texas A&M	76.5	2
30	Michigan	76	2.5
31	Arizona	75.5	3
32	Boise State	75.5	3.5
33	Louisville	75.5	3.5
34	Nebraska	75	2
35	Wisconsin	75	2
36	Duke	74.5	2.5
37	Virginia Tech	73.5	2
38	Baylor	73	1.5
39	Minnesota	72.5	2.5
40	Florida State	72	2.5
41	Washington	72	3.5
42	Penn State	71.5	2.5
43	TCU	71.5	2.5
44	Clemson	71	2.5
45	North Carolina	71	2
46	Cincinnati	69.5	1.5
47	North Carolina State	69	2.5
48	Liberty	68.5	2.5
49	Mississippi State	68.5	2
50	New Mexico	68.5	2
51	North Texas	68.5	2.5
52	Oregon State	68.5	3.5
53	Illinois	68	2.5
54	Kansas	68	2.5
55	Syracuse	68	2.5
56	Virginia	68	2
57	Iowa State	67.5	2.5
58	Arizona State	67	2
59	Arkansas	67	1.5
60	Vanderbilt	67	2.5
61	Pittsburgh	66.5	2.5
62	Texas State	66.5	2
63	UCF	66.5	2
64	Boston College	66	2
65	West Virginia	66	2
66	Memphis	65.5	2.5
67	Kansas State	65	3
68	Michigan State	64.5	1.5
69	Purdue	64.5	1
70	UTSA	64.5	3.5
71	North Dakota State	64	3.5
72	Colorado	63	2.5
73	Fresno State	63	2
74	Louisiana Tech	63	2
75	James Madison	62.5	3.5
76	Navy	62.5	2.5
77	Army	62	2.5
78	California	61.5	2
79	Maryland	61.5	2
80	Rutgers	61.5	2
81	Tulsa	60.5	1
82	Georgia Southern	59.5	3.5
83	Florida Atlantic	59	1.5
84	Georgia Tech	59	2
85	Nevada	59	1
86	South Florida	59	3
87	Stanford	59	1.5
88	UNLV	59	2.5
89	East Carolina	58.5	2
90	Toledo	58.5	3.5
91	Connecticut	58	3
92	Jacksonville State	58	3.5
93	Utah State	58	3
94	Air Force	57.5	2
95	Louisiana-Lafayette	57.5	2
96	Western Michigan	57.5	3.5
97	Appalachian State	56.5	2
98	Arkansas State	56.5	2.5
99	Rice	55.5	3
100	South Alabama	55.5	2
101	Florida International	55	2
102	Temple	55	2
103	Marshall	54.5	3.5
104	Troy	54.5	3
105	Tulane	54.5	2.5
106	San Diego State	54	2
107	UAB	54	2.5
108	Washington State	54	3
109	Wyoming	54	2
110	Georgia State	53.5	1
111	Old Dominion	53.5	1.5
112	Ohio	53	3.5
113	Delaware	52.5	1
114	Kennesaw State	52.5	2.5
115	Coastal Carolina	51	2
116	Miami (Ohio)	51	3.5
117	San Jose State	51	2.5
118	Hawai’i	50	3
119	Colorado State	49	2
120	Middle Tennessee	49	1.5
121	New Mexico State	49	2.5
122	Eastern Michigan	47.5	2.5
123	Southern Mississippi	47.5	2
124	Central Michigan	47	3
125	Western Kentucky	47	3
126	Buffalo	46	2
127	Missouri State	46	2
128	Charlotte	45.5	1
129	Massachusetts	45	1
130	Bowling Green	43.5	2
131	Sam Houston State	41.5	2
132	Louisiana-Monroe	41	2
133	Ball State	40.5	3
134	Northern Illinois	40.5	1.5
135	UTEP	40	1
136	Akron	38.5	2
137	Kent State	38.5	1
138	Sacramento State	28.5	2

Week 10 PR Adjustments

Up: Delaware +2, Kennesaw State +2, Jacksonville State +2.5, Troy +2.5, North Texas +1, Charlotte +2.5, Baylor +3.5, Sacramento State +2, Georgia Southern +1.5, North Carolina +2.5, Clemson +1.5, Iowa State +2, USC +1.5, Washington +1.5, San Diego State +2, NC State +1.5, Syracuse +3, Bowling Green +3, Wake Forest +1.5, Minnesota +2, South Carolina +2, TCU +2, Arizona +1, UCLA +1.5, Ole Miss +1.5, Liberty +3.5, Utah State +1.5, Texas State +3, Duke +2.5

Down: Western Kentucky -2, Sam Houston State -1.5, Middle Tennessee -3, New Mexico State -1.5, James Madison -3, Tulane -2.5, UCF -3, Kent State -4, Army -1.5, Georgia Tech -3.5, Miami -2, Florida State -2.5, Oklahoma State -2, Ohio State -4, Mississippi State -4, Nebraska -4, Washington State -4, UNLV -2, Cal -2, Florida -3, SMU -1.5, Western Michigan -1.5, Virginia -1.5, Indiana -3.5, Purdue -2.5, Notre Dame -3, Oklahoma -1.5, Georgia State -2.5, Kansas -2, North Dakota State -3, FIU -2, Colorado State -2.5

Doubling down on lowering some teams. Playing pinball again with others. Injuries or just downright bad play led to a lot of big downgrades this week.

My Week 10 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away	Home	Line
11/3	Buffalo	Miami (OH)	-8.5
	Ohio	Akron	+12.5
11/4	Central Michigan	Eastern Michigan (N – Detroit)	-0.5
	Ball State	UMass	-5.5
	Toledo	Sacramento State	+28
11/5	UTSA	Florida Atlantic	+4
	James Madison	Southern Miss	+13
11/6	Virginia Tech	SMU	-7
	South Florida	East Carolina	-1.5
	Nebraska	Illinois	+4.5
	New Mexico	Nevada	+8.5
	TCU	Arizona	-7
11/7	UCF	Kansas	-4
	North Carolina	UConn	+10
	Florida State	Boston College	+4
	Maryland	Purdue	-4
	UCLA	Minnesota	+3
	Marshall	Georgia Southern	-8.5
	Georgia State	App State	-5
	Michigan State	Michigan	-14
	Texas	Missouri	+1.5
	Old Dominion	Coastal Carolina	+0.5
	Clemson	Syracuse	+0.5
	Louisville	Georgia Tech	+14.5
	Duke	NC State	+3
	Iowa	Northwestern	-3.5
	Oklahoma State	Kansas State	+10
	Cincinnati	Houston	-12
	Rutgers	Wisconsin	-15.5
	Iowa State	Baylor	-7
	Arkansas	Auburn	-13.5
	Colorado	Arizona State	-6
	Hawaii	UTEP	+9
	BYU	Utah	-5
	Delaware	Kennesaw State	-2.5
	Northern Illinois	San Jose State	-13
	Penn State	Washington	-4
	UL Monroe	Arkansas State	-18
	Georgia	Ole Miss	+2
	Oklahoma	Florida	-5.5
	West Virginia	Texas Tech	-15
	Oregon	Ohio State	-7
	South Alabama	Louisiana	-4
	Tulsa	Tulane	+3.5
	Vanderbilt	Mississippi State	-3.5
	Rice	North Texas	-15.5
	Texas A&M	South Carolina	-7
	Alabama	LSU	-5.5
	Charlotte	UAB	-11
	Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	-3.5
	Temple	Navy	-10
	Missouri State	FIU	-11
	Louisiana Tech	Troy	+5.5
	Liberty	New Mexico State	+17
	Kentucky	Tennessee	-6
	Boise State	Colorado State	+24.5
	Sam Houston	Jacksonville State	-20
	Air Force	Army	-7
	Miami (FL)	Notre Dame	-5
	Fresno State	Utah State	+2
	Texas State	Oregon State	-5.5
	Wyoming	UNLV	-7.5

Games to consider:

Florida Atlantic +7 (+4) vs. UTSA: Weeknight game with travel. Feels like a Jeff Traylor special is coming here.

Minnesota +6 (+3) vs. UCLA: I don’t doubt that Bob Chesney’s defense is elite. The offense, however, is not.

Old Dominion +7.5 (+0.5) at Coastal Carolina: Not quite sure what happened here. I think both teams stink.

NC State +6 (+3) vs. Duke: Feels rich on Duke on the road. The Wolfpack looked pretty good in their first game without Dave Doeren.

Oklahoma State -4 (-10) at Kansas State: Two really inconsistent teams. Maybe Avery Johnson will be back for K-State and that’s why my number is so far off.

FIU -3.5 (-11) vs. Missouri State: My biggest overlay of the week. Conference USA teams have shown zero consistency as they head back to Saturdays and get lost in the shuffle of other games.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.