Week 11 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

College football coaches are aware of betting lines, something that has been evident for decades, and that’s the truth now more than ever due to point spreads being openly discussed in the mainstream media. Oregon coach Dan Lanning surely knew his team was favored by 14.5 to 15 points at Michigan last week, when the Ducks led by 14 as the final minute ticked away in Ann Arbor, Mich. Lanning should have instructed quarterback Dillon Gabriel to take a knee and run out the clock, the classy thing to do. Instead, Lanning continued to call plays with Gabriel in the shotgun, and Jordan James ran up the middle for an unnecessary 2-yard touchdown to cover the spread with 25 seconds remaining. It was a classless thing to do. I was bitter, of course, because the Ducks’ 38-17 win stuck me with a loss on the underdog.

A bad season for the Wolverines is about to get worse. It’s no lock the reigning national champions — 5-4 with games remaining against Indiana, Northwestern and Ohio State — will get to six wins and qualify for a minor bowl. On the positive side for me, Michigan Under 9 wins was a best bet before the season, and that result was an easy winner.

 

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This week’s game is a tough decision. Michigan is getting 14.5 points at Indiana, which is favored against the Wolverines for the first time since 1968. I typically would take the points in this role-reversal situation, but the Michigan offense is abysmal and its defense is in decline. The No. 8 Hoosiers (9-0) have been impervious to letdown spots and all other traditional handicapping angles, however, so I’ll pass for now. Here are my five best bets for Saturday of college football Week 11:

Purdue at Ohio State (-37.5)

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

It’s hard to believe this mismatch is featured in the Fox “Big Noon Kickoff” game. Expect the Boilermakers and their lame-duck coach to get slaughtered. Purdue coach Ryan Walters was hailed as a defensive wizard when he was hired away from Illinois two years ago, but his defensive schemes are as weak as the effort from his discouraged team. In their previous two Big Ten road games, the Boilermakers allowed 52 points to Wisconsin and 50 to Illinois. The Buckeyes have not scored more than 38 points in any of their five conference games, but they did average 52.3 points in three non-league games. Purdue is playing two quarterbacks, Hudson Card and Ryan Browne, who could engineer a scoring drive or two. Unless coach Ryan Day’s offense is sleepwalking, Ohio State should be able to name its score and top 50 points in a 56-10 type of game.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Purdue-Ohio State Over 53

Iowa State (-3) at Kansas

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

The tough-luck Jayhawks (2-6) led in the fourth quarter in all six of their losses, including a 29-27 setback at Kansas State last week. Kansas is a well-coached team that shows no signs of quitting on Lance Leipold. The Cyclones were 7-0 before getting stunned 23-22 by Texas Tech, and the hangover from that loss could lead to two in a row.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Kansas +3

Alabama (-3) at LSU

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

After a bye week, the Tigers are underdogs in a night game in Baton Rouge. LSU was in a similar situation on Oct. 12, when Garrett Nussmeier threw two late touchdown passes to beat Mississippi in overtime. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has been erratic since beating Georgia in late September, and the Crimson Tide defense has deteriorated. In a three-game stretch against Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Tennessee, the Tide allowed an average of 29.7 points. I made this line Alabama -1.5, so take the field goal with Brian Kelly, who could rediscover his Cajun accent in a fiery pregame pep talk.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: LSU +3

UNLV (-13.5) at Hawaii

Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET (CBSSN)

The Rebels are legit, and so is quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, who has completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 1,017 yards and 12 touchdowns in five starts. Williams also has 495 rushing yards and five touchdowns. A UNLV defense that was strong during a 4-0 start has slipped, allowing an average of 33 points in the past four games. In a duel between veteran quarterbacks, Hawaii’s Brayden Schager can run and trade aerial shots with Williams. The Schager-led offense produced 242 rushing yards against Nevada two weeks ago before the Warriors outgained Fresno State 346-176 in last week’s upset win. Hawaii has made enough improvement on both sides of the ball to hang with UNLV.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Hawaii +13.5

Brigham Young (-3.5) at Utah

Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

It’s the stretch run of a dream season for BYU (8-0), but this rivalry game could be a nightmare on a cold night in Salt Lake City. The Cougars are closing in on a Big 12 title and playoff berth. Utah, the preseason favorite to win the conference, has lost four in a row and will treat the “Holy War” as its Super Bowl. Utes coach Kyle Whittingham will be conservative, preventing his quarterback from losing the game while trying to win with a defense allowing only 16.8 ppg. I trust Whittingham to manage a tight game better than BYU coach Kalani Sitake.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Utah +3.5

Last week: 1-4 against the spread
Season: 24-25-2

For more Week 11 college football analysis, visit the Week 11 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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