Week 13 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

It’s not easy to like Georgia coach Kirby Smart, who appears constantly cranky. Still, Smart has won two of the past three national championships, so he has credibility and deserves respect, like him or not. It is easy to understand why Smart is so cynical when talking about the mysterious workings of the College Football Playoff selection committee.

The committee, chaired by Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel, unveils its weekly rankings each Tuesday in an ESPN-produced dog and pony show. Not that the rankings mean a lot at this point, with so many big games yet to be played, but the process exposes the committee as clumsy, so that part is somewhat important. Manuel’s explanations for how the teams are ranked are often baffling, comical and contradictory.

 

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In this week’s rankings, Texas (9-1) is No. 3 and Georgia (8-2) is No. 10. A month ago, the Bulldogs, 5-point underdogs, beat the Longhorns 30-15 in Austin, Texas. Georgia also owns victories over Clemson and Tennessee. Smart’s two losses were not bad ones on the road against Alabama and Mississippi. The Longhorns’ best wins came against Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Florida, Michigan and Colorado State — five teams nowhere near the rankings.

The committee’s flawed bracket is mostly nonsense until it is finalized in early December. Texas could be worthy of its ranking, but the Longhorns should not be seven spots ahead of the Bulldogs. The hottest topic after this weekend will be the result of the Indiana-Ohio State game, which makes my list of my Week 13 college football best bets for Saturday:

Indiana at Ohio State (-10.5)

Maybe the Hoosiers, who have rolled to 10 wins against unranked opponents, will get a reality check on the Big Ten road. I doubt it. I believe the Buckeyes have been overrated in the betting market most of the season — laying 3.5 points at Oregon was one example, and this two-touchdown spread is another. Ohio State has one win against a ranked opponent — 20-13 at Penn State on Nov. 2, when Nittany Lions coach James Franklin pulled one of his classic choke jobs in a big game. In late October, the Buckeyes needed a fourth-quarter comeback on their home field to beat Nebraska 21-17. One week earlier, the Hoosiers thrashed the Cornhuskers 56-7.

Ohio State, which is working with a shorthanded offensive line, is tied for first in the nation in scoring defense at 10.3 ppg. Indiana ranks No. 2 in scoring offense at 43.9 ppg. The Hoosiers can run the ball and veteran quarterback Kurtis Rourke can throw it, completing 71.8 percent of his passes with 21 touchdowns and four interceptions. Indiana has scored 31 points or more in nine games and its defense ranks No. 7 in scoring at 13.8 ppg. Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti’s team has passed every test so far and won’t shrink on the big stage. I was waiting to see if +14 would show before kickoff, but the line started to drop Thursday morning, so I took +13.5. Everything we have seen indicates this ‘dog can run with the Buckeyes.

Week 13 College Football Best Bet: Indiana +10.5

Penn State (-11.5) at Minnesota

All signs are pointing Penn State to the 12-team playoff, but Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is usually a feisty underdog, and he has a bowl-bound team that could throw up a roadblock. The Golden Gophers (6-4) have lost by more than one score only once, and their defense allowed an average 18.8 points during a recent four-game win streak against USC, UCLA, Maryland and Illinois. With quarterback Max Brosmer and running back Darius Taylor, the Gophers can produce enough offensive punch to fight the Nittany Lions for four quarters. Penn State bullies the bad teams, but Minnesota is not bad.

Week 13 College Football Best Bet: Minnesota +11.5

Colorado (-3) at Kansas

It has been surprising to see the Buffaloes (8-2) and coach Deion Sanders quiet their critics, but the truth is they own no wins against ranked opponent, and their losses came to disappointing Kansas State and Nebraska teams. It’s also true Colorado has had the best two players on the field in every game it has played. Several NFL franchises want to get their hands on quarterback Shedeur Sanders (72.9 percent completions, 3,222 yards, 27 touchdowns, seven interceptions) and two-way star Travis Hunter, who leads the team with 74 receptions and nine touchdowns. Sanders and Hunter could prove too hot to handle, but I’ll back the Jayhawks for the third week in a row. Kansas, 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS in its past four games, has held a fourth-quarter lead in all six of its losses. Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels has found a groove late in the season, and coach Lance Leipold is a better, more experienced game manager than Deion Sanders.

Week 13 College Football Best Bet: Kansas +3

Air Force at Nevada (-3.5)

Kansas has been coming on strong late in the season, and the same is true of Air Force, which ran over Oregon State and Fresno State by totaling 615 rushing yards the past two weeks. The Falcons have improved offensively since switching back to quarterback Quentin Hayes, and their defense pitched a shutout against the Beavers a week ago. The Wolf Pack have lost four straight and the streak will hit five unless they can find a way to stop Air Force’s ground-and-pound offense on a cold night in Reno.

Week 13 College Football Best Bet: Air Force +3.5

USC (-4.5) at UCLA

UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava shook off an early pick-six to lead the Trojans to a 28-20 victory over Nebraska, validating coach Lincoln Riley’s decision to switch quarterbacks last week. Maiava is a young quarterback who will make mistakes, so don’t buy the hype just yet. The key player for USC will be Woody Marks, who rushed for 146 yards against the Cornhuskers. The Bruins, who held Iowa star Kaleb Johnson to 49 yards on 18 carries two weeks, must slow Marks and put pressure on Maiava. UCLA, which has won three of four to get to 4-6, is chasing bowl eligibility and has just as much motivation to win as USC. This shapes up as a one-score game that could be decided by a late field goal.

Week 13 College Football Best Bet: UCLA +4.5

* My list of best bets will be much longer than this by Saturday morning, so I’ll post the additional plays on the VSiN Pro page.

Last week: 4-1 against the spread
Season: 31-28-2

For more college football Week 13 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 13 hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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