The transition from Week 1 to Week 2 is a tough one for bettors and bookmakers. It is hard to know just what to take from a Big Ten team destroying a MAC team or a Sun Belt team taking a FCS foe out to the woodshed. Of course, there are also some decent FBS vs. FBS games that may be more telling as a data point, but what we saw may not be what we get moving forward. It is another one of those really high-variance weeks and one that should help bettors that are on the ball.
With no games on Thursday and only two games on Friday, we have a full Saturday slate, so this feels like a more common week of college football. It also falls in between the start of the NFL season and our first NFL Sunday, so college football gets all of the attention on Saturday. But, it is a lot tougher to bet on game day if you don’t pay attention to where the line opened and how it moved, which is why these Opening Line Report articles are helpful.
Even though I’m writing this on Monday this week due to a family situation, the market has had a chance to settle in a little bit and we’re sure to see some line moves on Tuesday as a result of some influential money.
Week 2 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Monday, September 7 at 12:30 p.m. PT
Rutgers at Boston College (-3.5, 54.5)
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Did Rutgers look bad enough to take themselves out of being a road favorite heading to Boston College? Getting crushed at home by UMass is about as bad of a look as you can get and major adjustments were made to the Scarlet Knights’ power rating. Personally, I would have had this line Rutgers -2.5 from a lookahead standpoint. I have it -1 now, but the market is out to -3.5, suggesting that maybe we’d have seen pick ‘em or BC -1. Bettors are not going to be very interested in taking Rutgers here, even though they are probably the value side, especially north of the key number.
Oklahoma (-6.5, 43.5) at Michigan
Saturday, Noon ET
Here’s a line undoubtedly impacted by what happened over the weekend, as the overriding sentiment is that Michigan should have lost to Western Michigan. While the Wolverines survived, they were putrid on offense. The defense was good, albeit against a MAC team, so that’s why we see the 43.5 total here, but Oklahoma is absolutely a bigger favorite than they would have been otherwise. DraftKings actually opened this 4.5 and it moved to 6.5, though like I’ve talked about before, moving between 4 and 6.5, especially in college football where extra points remain almost automatic, doesn’t take much. If we get to 7 here, that’ll be a point of significance for sure.
App State at East Carolina (-7.5, 56.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
Definitely not as big of a game here, but a super intriguing Sun Belt vs. American battle. East Carolina looked pretty bad against Alabama, which a lot of teams of their stature will do, but the offense sure looked to be missing some of last year’s key pieces. On the flip side, App State got a good first performance from Malachi Singleton. As mentioned in the intro, I don’t know how much we can take from a Sun Belt team rocking a FCS team, but maybe Dowell Loggains has the offensive pieces he needs to make some improvements. The market seems to think so, though, again, going from 9.5 to 7.5 doesn’t take much. If we go to 7, and especially if we go to 6.5, that’s where you should take notice.
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech (-18.5, 50.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
Ricky Rahne and James Franklin have some history and so do these two programs. Rahne worked under Franklin at both Vanderbilt and Penn State. Will that keep Franklin from running it up if given the chance? ODU only had 319 yards against Norfolk State and Quinn Henicle didn’t look overly sharp taking over for Colton Joseph, who was one of the most productive dual-threat QBs in the country last season. The Hokies scored 73 points against VMI, who is objectively terrible, but still. Old Dominion won 45-26 last season, so it’s a revenge spot for the Hokies and they are laying three scores. They were in a revenge spot against the Monarchs back in 2023 and won 36-17, for whatever that’s worth.
Cal at Syracuse (-3, 56.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
The market moved against Cal last week and that was proven to be the correct course of action, as the Golden Bears were no match for UCLA. The market is moving against them this week with a long trek to the Carrier Dome in upstate New York. The Orange had a much easier Week 1 opponent, but they dropped 66 points on New Hampshire and the offense looked like it did early last season before Steve Angeli was lost for the year. I think this is a case of two early-season power ratings going in opposite directions. There are some 3.5s out there as well with a number that opened 1.5 at DraftKings. Circa actually opened this one as a pick ‘em.
UNLV (-4.5, 57.5) at North Texas
Saturday, 3:45 p.m. ET
I don’t envy oddsmakers for having to line this game. UNLV’s season opener against Memphis was a little bit of a quirky game, but they played outstanding defense in the 21-6 win over Hawaii. That said, we now have seven bad quarters of football for the Rainbow Warriors and Micah Alejado to think about. And UNLV has only scored 21 points in each of their two games. A brand-new North Texas roster did virtually nothing against Indiana, but not many teams have success against Indiana these days. Really, really tough line here. Some 5.5s moved down to 4.5. Circa opened 5. Given where the line is, it won’t take much to swing the balance of it sitting in that dead zone between 4 and 6. Let’s see where it goes. Also, this is the third straight total in a UNLV game in the upper 50s and they are 2-0 to the Under.
Buffalo at FIU (-10.5, 48.5)
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET
First impressions mean a lot to the market. Buffalo’s first impression was hideous, a 21-17 win at home over Albany. FIU lost, which they’ve grown accustomed to doing, but they badly outgained South Florida 381-208 and were dragged down by going -3 in turnovers. This game is very rare air for the Golden Panthers. They were -10.5 against Sam Houston State on the road last season and won 56-16. Per the KillerSports database, that was their first time favored by double digits against a FBS opponent since 2019 when they were -16 against Old Dominion and won by seven. They’ll have some expectations this upcoming Saturday.
Tulsa (-13.5, 52.5) at Sam Houston State
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
This will be a low-handle game, but a fascinating line to follow. Tulsa beat Oklahoma State and really shut down what we expected to be a high-flying Cowboys offense with all of Eric Morris’ top guys from North Texas. Instead, the Golden Hurricane won by two touchdowns and held OSU to just 10 points. On the flip side, Sam Houston State’s performance against Troy deserves some attention. They were a big underdog and outgained the Trojans 373-342. The Bearkats couldn’t run the ball at all, but threw for 335 yards. It’s a terrible spot for Tulsa to go down to Huntsville, TX to face a Bearkats bunch that only went 2-10 last season and had no expectations for this season. Let’s keep an eye on this one.
San Diego State at UCLA (-11.5, 53.5)
Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Side and total movement here, as UCLA is getting some market love again. That move was proven correct with the Bruins’ win and cover against Cal last week. This week, the Over has gone up from 51 to 53.5 and the Bruins have gotten some modest love, going as high as 12.5. The line opened 10.5 at DraftKings and Circa. Again, while there aren’t any numbers of great significance between 10 and 13, we have seen UCLA take some early, respected money and that means something.
Ohio State at Texas (-1.5, 48.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
The game of the week is clearly this one, with Texas a market-wide favorite. Nothing happened last week to shift the balance of power in this game, as both teams excelled in controlled scrimmages. Last season’s game was a rock fight, as Ohio State head coach Ryan Day put it all on his defense and shielded freshman QB Julian Sayin. That shouldn’t be the case this season. I think we’ll see money hit the board on both sides here and this line should stay pretty stagnant, even with the magnitude of the game.
North Dakota State (-3.5, 46.5) at Air Force
Saturday, 10 p.m. ET
This is the opener and subsequent line move that caught my attention the most. With two very solid data points, it seems like North Dakota State got too big for their britches in the minds of market-shapers, as this line opened 6 or 6.5 and has been chopped down to 3.5 at most places, with Circa down as low as 3. We can’t really glean much from Air Force’s performance against Duquesne, but it is very interesting to see this line come down quickly early in the week given that the Bison have given up just seven points in two games. I did agree with the initial move based on my power ratings, but it may have swung a little too much.
Montana State (-5.5, 50.5) at Nevada
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Credit to Fanduel for putting out FBS vs. FCS numbers early. This line greatly intrigues me, as Nevada completely blew out Western Kentucky in the opener and that was a line that swung towards the Wolf Pack. They were still a slight dog on the closer, but played like the team that should have been favored. Now, they’re a home underdog to Montana State. The Bobcats have scored 105 points in two games, so they’re off to a nice start. Jeff Sagarin, who ranks all the Division I FBS and FCS teams, hadn’t updated his numbers as of Monday afternoon, but Montana State would have been a larger favorite than this based on his rankings heading into last weekend.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
