MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, September 8.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:35 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young has pitched to a solid amount of contact with a 3.42 ERA, 7.2 strikeouts, and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee is getting a career-low 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings, posting a 4.06 ERA and 4.57 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a Guardians lineup that is 29th in road scoring with four runs per game, while the Orioles are fifth in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 3.13.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -125 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -154 and Total 8.9
6:40 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Twins starting pitcher Dean Kremer has struggled to a 5.81 ERA this season with two home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Tigers starting pitcher Drew Anderson has a 3.73 ERA with 9.9 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings and faces a Twins offense that is 20th in scoring since the All-Star Break with 4.2 runs per game, while the Tigers are eighth with 4.7 runs per game in that span.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -134
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -145
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcántara overall this season has a 3.54 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings, but has been at his best at home with a 2.58 ERA and 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 4.32 road ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed. Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea has allowed at least four runs in four straight starts and overall this season has a 4.70 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that entered the series last in the National League in scoring with less than 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Mets vs. Marlins Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6
7:15 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves
Rays starting pitcher Freddy Peralta is posting career-worsts in nearly every statistical category this season with a 4.96 ERA, 1.4 home runs, and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. In his past 13 starts, he has a 6.33 ERA with nearly 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. Braves starting pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver is having his own struggles with a 7.13 ERA in a small sample size of four starts and 17 2/3 innings, but is supported by a bullpen that is second in the National League in ERA at 3.43, while the Rays are 15th overall in bullpen ERA at 4.03.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -109
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -138
7:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White Sox
Since August 1, the Pirates have scored the fewest runs of any National League team with 3.7 runs per game and face White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke, who owns a 3.20 ERA with one home run and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler has a 4.30 ERA with command issues, issuing 4.7 walks per nine innings, and faces a White Sox lineup that is sixth in scoring with over 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline -140
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -153
9:40 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher Casey Mize overall this season has a solid 3.64 ERA with one home run and 2.2 walks per nine innings allowed, but has been in awful form since getting traded from the Detroit Tigers to the Padres, posting a 6.67 ERA with 2.7 home runs and three walks per nine innings. Nationals starting pitcher Matt Waldron is pitching against a San Diego team he began the season with, and he has struggled to a 6.54 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Padres lineup that is seventh in scoring since the All-Star Break with over 4.7 runs per game, while the Nationals are second overall in scoring this season with 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals vs. Padres Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
9:45 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp has had command issues with 4.2 walks per nine innings, but his 3.71 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed points toward positivity on his 4.17 ERA. Cardinals starting pitcher Quinn Mathews has also had command issues, as he has a 4.38 ERA in five career starts with 4.4 walks per nine innings after issuing 5.5 walks per nine innings at the minor league level. He is supported by a bullpen that is 24th in ERA at 4.56.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -112
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -133
10:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
It has been a shaky season for Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has a 5.08 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings. He faces a Dodgers lineup that has not been as sharp at home, ranking 16th in scoring with 4.4 runs per game while leading the league in road scoring with 5.4 runs per game. The Reds are 23rd in scoring with 4.2 runs per game and face starting pitcher Tarik Skubal, who has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7.3, which is on par with his Cy Young Award seasons, and owns a 2.86 ERA.
Pick: Reds vs. Dodgers Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
