Week 2 College Football Predictions
Week 1 was both extremely entertaining and wildly unpredictable. We saw Michigan almost lose to Western Michigan as 27.5-point favorites, LSU decimate Clemson as just 10-point favorites, and pretty much everything in between. My personal bets had a no good, terrible, bad week. But, with more games come more data points and opportunity for both TSI and my eyeballs to dial in on what teams are, as opposed to relying on preseason expectations. Here are a couple of the early bets that I like for Week 2.
Penn State (-23.5) vs Temple, O/U 49.5
I faded Penn State in Week 1 against Marshall and instantly regretted it once the Nittany Lions went up 17-0 before Marshall got off the bus. I think I underestimated Matt Campbell’s squad, as they looked fast on defense and effective in the passing game, most notably. They racked up 6.8 yards per play, including 12 yards per pass attempt, while holding Marshall to just 1.69 yards per carry and 3.68 yards per pass attempt. Dominance. TSI projects Penn State -31, and my market-estimated formula makes it -26.5, so I think we’re getting a good price on a team that it may take the market a few games to catch up to.
Bet: Penn State -23.5 (Play to -24)
Ohio (-2) vs Jacksonville State, O/U 51.5
Ohio fought hard and gave Nebraska all they could handle before the dam broke in the fourth quarter and the Huskers ultimately won by 28. That’s a game where Big Ten depth of talent just won out, but the first three quarters were back-and-forth. In the first half, OU ran for 4.5 yards per carry and threw for 6.5 yards per attempt with a 33% success rate, while holding Nebraska to 4.6 and 8.5, respectively, with a 43% success rate. Jacksonville State, conversely, got completely outshone in their first game against North Dakota State, who were making their FBS debut. In that game, they mustered just 2.7 yards per carry and 3.7 yards per pass attempt, with a 28% success rate. TSI projects OU -1.5, so pretty much in line with the market, but the on-field grades from these teams so far favor the Bobcats by six.
Bet: Ohio ML -130 or better
For more college football Week 2 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 2 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
