Week 2 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 2 College Football

The Week 2 college football power ratings balancing act has begun. One (or two) data point out of 12 or 13 is in the books for nearly everybody, as I’ll make my adjustments to TCU and North Carolina after their standalone Monday night game. You don’t want to overreact to what you just saw, but you also don’t want to under-react either. Trying to maintain your priors and your offseason research can be a real challenge because college football, and football in general, is such a knee-jerk reaction sport because we’re all watching it and all have eyes on as much as we can.

One thing I noticed this past week is that a lot of teams had quarterbacks as their leading rushers. With all of the transfer portal movement, it’s not a big surprise, but we did see some guys that typically aren’t known as big rushers wind up leading their teams. Take Jake Retzlaff at Tulane for instance. He had one big, explosive run and had 113 yards on 10 carries for the Green Wave. Offensive lines are not in sync early in the process and a QB who can move is a huge asset right now.

Anyway, back to the updated power ratings process. As I talked about last week when we had four FBS vs. FBS games to consider and nine FBS teams, box score study and comparing my line to the closing line are my two primary methods for updating my team ratings. I’ve enlisted the help of Game on Paper this season, along with looking through the ESPN box scores, to try and take a deeper, more advanced look at how a game played out. I’m hoping that I can get some more accurate representations of teams as a result.

We’ll see how it works going forward, but for now, I’ve got my new numbers and will be fascinated to see how the market reacts to this week’s set of games, especially for teams that looked great or looked terrible in Week 1.

Week 2 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	90	3.5
2	Penn State	90	3.5
3	Georgia	89.5	3
4	Texas	89	3.5
5	LSU	87.5	3.5
6	Oregon	86	3.5
7	Texas A&M	86	2
8	Notre Dame	85.5	3
9	Clemson	85	2.5
10	Alabama	83.5	3.5
11	Michigan	83	3
12	Florida	82.5	2
13	Oklahoma	82	3
14	Tennessee	81.5	3.5
15	Miami (Florida)	81	2
16	Auburn	80.5	2
17	Mississippi	80.5	3
18	South Carolina	79.5	2.5
19	Indiana	79	2.5
20	Louisville	79	3.5
21	Arizona State	78.5	2
22	Utah	78	3
23	USC	77.5	3
24	Iowa State	77	2
25	TCU	77	3
26	Illinois	76.5	2
27	Missouri	76.5	3.5
28	Texas Tech	76.5	3
29	Florida State	76	2
30	Kansas State	76	3.5
31	SMU	75.5	3.5
32	Baylor	75	2
33	Nebraska	75	2
34	Washington	74.5	3.5
35	Iowa	74	3
36	Kansas	74	2.5
37	Georgia Tech	73.5	2
38	Arkansas	73	2
39	BYU	72	2
40	Minnesota	72	2
41	Wisconsin	72	2
42	Vanderbilt	71.5	1.5
43	Virginia Tech	71.5	2
44	Pittsburgh	69.5	2
45	Cincinnati	69	1.5
46	Colorado	69	2
47	Duke	69	3.5
48	Boston College	68.5	2
49	Houston	68.5	2
50	Michigan State	68	2
51	Rutgers	68	2
52	Tulane	68	2.5
53	Boise State	67.5	3.5
54	California	67	2
55	Mississippi State	67	2
56	Navy	67	2
57	North Carolina	67	2
58	North Carolina State	67	2
59	Virginia	67	2
60	Arizona	66.5	2
61	UTSA	66.5	3.5
62	Kentucky	66	2
63	South Florida	66	1.5
64	Syracuse	66	2.5
65	West Virginia	66	2
66	UCLA	65.5	2
67	Maryland	65	2
68	Memphis	64.5	2.5
69	James Madison	64	3
70	UCF	64	2
71	Northwestern	62.5	1.5
72	Oklahoma State	61.5	2
73	Texas State	60.5	2
74	East Carolina	60	2
75	Fresno State	60	2
76	Toledo	60	3
77	Western Kentucky	60	2.5
78	Louisiana-Lafayette	59.5	2
79	North Texas	59.5	2
80	UNLV	59.5	2.5
81	Ohio	59	3.5
82	Old Dominion	59	1.5
83	San Jose State	59	2.5
84	Connecticut	58.5	2.5
85	Liberty	58.5	3
86	Oregon State	58.5	3.5
87	Air Force	58	2
88	Georgia Southern	58	3.5
89	South Alabama	58	2
90	Appalachian State	57.5	2
91	Army	57	2.5
92	Stanford	57	1
93	Wake Forest	57	2
94	Buffalo	56.5	2
95	Colorado State	56	2
96	Purdue	55.5	1
97	Wyoming	55.5	2
98	Arkansas State	55	2
99	Miami (Ohio)	55	2.5
100	Coastal Carolina	54	2
101	Hawai’i	54	2
102	Troy	54	3
103	Louisiana-Monroe	53.5	2
104	Northern Illinois	53.5	1
105	Washington State	53.5	3
106	Rice	53	3
107	Louisiana Tech	52.5	2
108	San Diego State	52.5	2
109	Utah State	52.5	2
110	Bowling Green	52	2
111	Marshall	52	3
112	Central Michigan	51.5	2
113	Jacksonville State	51	3.5
114	Nevada	51	1
115	Southern Mississippi	51	2
116	Temple	50.5	2
117	Georgia State	50	1
118	Florida Atlantic	49	2
119	New Mexico	49	2
120	Western Michigan	49	2
121	Florida International	48	2
122	Charlotte	47.5	1
123	Missouri State	47.5	2
124	Tulsa	46.5	1
125	UAB	46.5	2.5
126	Akron	46	2
127	Eastern Michigan	46	2
128	UTEP	46	2
129	New Mexico State	45.5	2.5
130	Delaware	45	3
131	Sam Houston State	45	0.5
132	Kennesaw State	44	1.5
133	Massachusetts	42	1
134	Middle Tennessee	41.5	2
135	Ball State	40.5	2.5
136	Kent State	37.5	1

Here are my Week 2 power ratings adjustments:

Up: South Florida +3, Missouri +1.5, Central Michigan +3, Kennesaw State +2, Auburn +2, Michigan State +2, Kansas +1.5, Purdue +1.5, New Mexico +1, Temple +2, Maryland +1.5, Virginia +2, Utah State +2, Arizona +1.5, Utah +4, Florida State +5, Texas A&M +2.5, Rice +2.5, Cal +3, Iowa State +2, Tulsa +2.5, LSU +2, East Carolina +1, UL Monroe +1.5, Wyoming +1, App State +2, Western Kentucky +2, Texas State +1.5, Miami (FL) +2

Down: Boise State -4.5, UCF -2, Buffalo -2.5, Bowling Green -2, UAB -2, San Jose State -3, Wake Forest -2, Baylor -2, Sam Houston State -3, Western Michigan -3, Army -3, Ball State -3, Michigan -1, Florida Atlantic -2, Coastal Carolina -2, Texas -2, UTEP -2, Hawaii -2.5, UCLA -4, Georgia State -2, Alabama -6, UTSA -1, Louisiana -1.5, Oregon State -2, Northern Illinois -1.5, Kansas State -2.5, Middle Tennessee -5, Washington State -2.5, Clemson -2, Delaware -2, Oklahoma State -1.5, Ohio State -1, Arizona State -1, SMU -1.5, Kentucky -2, Liberty -1.5, Eastern Michigan -1.5, Notre Dame -1

(note, no adjustments made yet for TCU/UNC)

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Florida State +5: Maybe it’s the name change to “Tommy” Castellanos, but what an impressive performance from the Seminoles. And also, what a deplorable performance from Kalen DeBoer’s team. More on that soon.

Utah +4: I knew I was too low on Utah when I saw what my line looked like against UCLA. Then I knew I was too low when they humiliated UCLA in the Rose Bowl.

Cal +3: Life without Fernando Mendoza seemed to go okay for the Golden Bears. I had that line pick ‘em against Oregon State. The line movement to the Cal side was correct and I made adjustments to both teams.

South Florida +3: The talk is going to be more about a no-show from Boise State, but maybe USF is legit in Year 3 for Alex Golesh.

Central Michigan +3: My line was not only too high favoring San Jose State, but Central Michigan won the game outright. Adjustment warranted, adjustment made.

Alabama -6: Hideous. Awful. Terrible. Not even just schematically, but there were some downright poor efforts on that field. I really loved DeBoer at Washington. I do not really love him at Alabama. Shocking, to be honest.

Middle Tennessee -5: I really thought there would be some improvement in Year 2 under Derek Mason, but losing by 20 at home to Austin Peay has me singing a much different tune now.

Boise State -4.5: I mean, we all saw that performance, right?

UCLA -4: A line adjustment, but also, that was an absolute beatdown by the Utes. Nico Iamaleava has a nice bank account, but I’m not sure he’s a nice QB.

Army -3: You cannot open the season by losing to Tarleton. You just can’t. Life without Bryson Daily and Kanye Udoh already seems hard.

Western Michigan -3: You know, I really liked this team coming into the season. They weren’t going to beat Michigan State, but the market was strongly against them and the market was right, as a garbage-time pick six resulted in the Broncos’ only points and, somehow, a cover.

Sam Houston State -3: Back-to-back weeks with a drop. I don’t think Phil Longo succeeds here and that defense is abhorrent.

My Week 2 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
9/5	James Madison	Louisville	-18.5
	Northern Illinois	Maryland	-13.5
9/6	FIU	Penn State	-45.5
	Kent State	Texas Tech	-42
	Virginia	NC State	-2
	San Jose State	Texas	-33.5
	Liberty	Jacksonville State	+4
	Central Michigan	Pitt	-20
	Iowa	Iowa State	-5
	UConn	Syracuse	-10
	Baylor	SMU	-4
	Illinois	Duke	+4
	Kennesaw State	Indiana	-37.5
	Utah State	Texas A&M	-35.5
	Ole Miss	Kentucky	+12.5
	Kansas	Missouri	-6
	UAB	Navy	-22.5
	North Texas	Western Michigan	+8.5
	Fresno State	Oregon State	-2
	Troy	Clemson	-33.5
	Miami (OH)	Rutgers	-15
	Bowling Green	Cincinnati	-18.5
	Oklahoma State	Oregon	-28
	Texas State	UTSA	-9.5
	Delaware	Colorado	-26
	Middle Tennessee	Wisconsin	-32.5
	West Virginia	Ohio	+3.5
	South Florida	Florida	-18.5
	Arkansas State	Arkansas	-20
	Sam Houston State	Hawaii	-11
	Missouri State	Marshall	-7.5
	North Carolina	Charlotte	+18.5
	Army	Kansas State	-22.5
	Memphis	Georgia State	+13.5
	Tulane	South Alabama	+8
	Western Kentucky	Toledo	-3
	Houston	Rice	+12.5
	Vanderbilt	Virginia Tech	-2
	Louisiana Tech	LSU	-38.5
	Boston College	Michigan State	-1.5
	Ball State	Auburn	-42
	Akron	Nebraska	-31
	Arizona State	Mississippi State	+9.5
	Michigan	Oklahoma	-2
	Georgia Southern	USC	-22.5
	UL Monroe	Alabama	-33.5
	UCLA	UNLV	+3.5
	Tulsa	New Mexico State	-1.5
	Stanford	BYU	-17
	San Diego State	Washington State	-4

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Louisville -14.5 (-18.5) vs. James Madison: This one is moving towards the Dukes early. I was purposely high on Louisville coming into the season thanks to Miller Moss and this will test that sentiment.

Texas A&M -29.5 (-35.5) vs. Utah State: The Aggies laid the smackdown on UTSA in a game that wasn’t really as close as the final score would suggest. Also, the mobile QB angle here with Marcel Reed.

UTSA -9.5 (-4.5) vs. Texas State: This feels a bit to me like how I had Fresno State this past week against Georgia Southern. Texas A&M is ferocious on defense and Owen McCown really struggled. I think he gets right here. One of my bigger overlays of the week.

Kansas State -22.5 (-15.5) vs. Army: This is a tough one because of how Army can condense games with their long drives. But, honestly, Iowa State and North Dakota are both better than this version of Army.

New Mexico State +3.5 (-1.5) vs. Tulsa: Maybe Tulsa is for real with new head coach Tre Lamb, but this was a team I really didn’t like coming into the season and don’t think they should be laying a road number to most anybody at this stage.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.