Every FBS team has played at least one game, which means that the scrutiny has begun. There are some Week 2 lines that show some notable adjustments to teams that either struggled in Week 0 or Week 1 and some extreme adjustments to teams that struggled in both. This is going to be a recurring theme for the next couple of weeks as both bettors and bookmakers test the waters to see what the right power rating is for all 131 teams.
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Now that we have a data point for each team, we’ve got something to go off of, but you never want to overreact to one game. Making adjustments is both an art and a science. It’s also imperfect. You may be right on some teams and wrong on others. The sportsbooks are going to be as well. The goal is to be right more often than they are so you can come out ahead and bet good numbers.
Before I list my 1 through 131 and my Week 2 spreads, I just want to remind everybody about my process for making adjustments. I compare my line with the closing line, analyze the box score for outliers and oddities and scour as many sources as I can for injury information. Then I try to figure out how much to adjust each team as a result of what I find. (Read about how I make my power ratings HERE and my home-field advantage values HERE.)
I may not adjust a team at all. If my line was right (or very close) and the game played to expectation, I won’t move a team up or down. Similarly, if my line was closer to how the game played out than the line or the line move, I’ll dig in a little bit and trust my numbers.
