Week 2 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 2 College Football Power Ratings:

One could be an outlier. Two is likely a pattern.

That’s how I approach Week 2 of the college football season from a power ratings standpoint. My College Football Power Ratings are meticulously analyzed and researched over the offseason, so I don’t want to throw away several weeks of hard work based on one data point. However, if a team has another great performance or an awful one as an encore, that’s when I really take notice.

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So, even though early-season college football is prone to overreaction, you won’t see a whole lot of big adjustments to teams for this week. As I said with the first line, you’ve got one or maybe two chances to show me something before I make a big adjustment.

There are 134 FBS teams. It is impossible to be right about every one of them, so I fully expect to ingest some slices of humble pie and wash it down with some Kool-Aid. Anybody setting their own lines should be prepared for that. While the social media circles of sports betting are filled with ego and showcase a true lack of humility, I find it perfectly reasonable to admit when I’m wrong, acknowledge when I’m right, and stay balanced throughout the process.

Speaking of the process, allow me to reiterate what steps I take when it comes to making adjustments on a weekly basis.

1. Compare my line to the closing line.

Let’s look at James Madison vs. Charlotte. I had James Madison -12 in that game and they closed as low as -6 in some spots. Despite a 30-7 win that implies my line was better than the market line, I still respect the betting market enough to drop James Madison a little bit in my ratings. Time will tell if I’m right in doing that, but I can’t let patting myself on the back get in the way of aiming for a more accurate number.

2. Study the box score.

A final score can only tell you so much. Digging deeper into the box score matters. San Jose State beat Sacramento State 42-24, but it was a 24-21 game after three quarters and not in favor of the Spartans. The yards were 387-356 and San Jose State ran for just two yards per carry. I didn’t upgrade or downgrade San Jose State because it was a close line, but it was not really an 18-point win in the box score.

I think Ohio and Syracuse is a good example. My line was 14.5 and the game closed 17. I downgraded Ohio, but I didn’t upgrade Syracuse. The Orange gave up 6.5 yards per carry to a MAC school. Notably, my line on Georgia Tech/Syracuse is a little light and I could see myself on the Yellow Jackets.

3. Check for injuries.

There were a few. Sometimes it’s hard to get injury info until Tuesday or Wednesday, as teams are very protective of the health of college kids and it sometimes takes a little bit of time to come out. Unless it’s a really notable QB injury, the juice sometimes isn’t fully worth the squeeze to dig and dig on Sunday.

Here are my Week 2 College Football Power Ratings:

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	97	3
2	Ohio State	93	3.5
3	Alabama	90.5	3.5
4	Oregon	90.5	3.5
5	Texas	90	3.5
6	Mississippi	86	3.5
7	Notre Dame	86	3.5
8	Penn State	86	3.5
9	LSU	85	3.5
10	Oklahoma	83	3.5
11	Tennessee	83	3.5
12	Missouri	82	2
13	Michigan	81.5	3.5
14	Texas A&M	81.5	3
15	Miami (Florida)	80.5	2
16	USC	80	2
17	Clemson	79.5	3
18	Kansas State	79.5	3.5
19	Utah	79.5	3.5
20	Oklahoma State	77	3.5
21	Arizona	77	2
22	TCU	77	2.5
23	Iowa State	76.5	2
24	Auburn	76	2
25	Kansas	76	2
26	Kentucky	76	2.5
27	Louisville	76	3.5
28	Iowa	75.5	2.5
29	Washington	75	2
30	Georgia Tech	74.5	1
31	Florida State	74	2
32	Florida	74	2
33	Wisconsin	74	2
34	SMU	73.5	3.5
35	UCF	73	3
36	Virginia Tech	73	2
37	West Virginia	73	3
38	Nebraska	72.5	2
39	North Carolina State	72	3.5
40	Boise State	71.5	2.5
41	Maryland	71	2
42	Memphis	71	2
43	Arkansas	70.5	2
44	Colorado	70	2
45	South Carolina	70	2.5
46	Rutgers	69	2
47	Texas Tech	69	2.5
48	UCLA	69	2
49	Baylor	68.5	2
50	Liberty	68.5	3
51	Tulane	68	2
52	Appalachian State	67.5	2.5
53	North Carolina	67.5	2.5
54	Pittsburgh	67.5	2
55	Indiana	67	1.5
56	Arizona State	66.5	2
57	Minnesota	66.5	2
58	Syracuse	66.5	2.5
59	California	66	2
60	Cincinnati	66	2
61	Oregon State	66	3.5
62	South Florida	66	2
63	Washington State	66	2.5
64	Illinois	65.5	2
65	UNLV	65.5	2
66	Virginia	65.5	2
67	BYU	65	2
68	Fresno State	65	2.5
69	Mississippi State	65	2
70	Northwestern	65	1.5
71	Purdue	65	2
72	Michigan State	64	2.5
73	UTSA	64	3.5
74	Wake Forest	64	2.5
75	Boston College	63	1.5
76	Texas State	63	2
77	Coastal Carolina	62	2.5
78	Duke	62	3
79	James Madison	62	3.5
80	Miami (Ohio)	62	3
81	Houston	61.5	2
82	Stanford	61.5	1
83	Louisiana-Lafayette	61	3
84	Air Force	60	2.5
85	Western Kentucky	60	2.5
86	Arkansas State	59	2
87	Bowling Green	59	2
88	South Alabama	59	2.5
89	Toledo	59	2.5
90	Vanderbilt	59	1
91	Wyoming	58.5	2.5
92	Colorado State	58	1
93	San Diego State	58	2
94	Troy	58	2.5
95	UAB	58	2.5
96	Georgia Southern	57.5	2
97	Northern Illinois	57.5	1.5
98	Old Dominion	57.5	2
99	East Carolina	57	2
100	Marshall	57	2
101	North Texas	57	2
102	Rice	56.5	2
103	Army	56	2
104	Jacksonville State	56	2.5
105	San Jose State	56	2
106	Nevada	55.5	1.5
107	Hawai’i	55	2
108	Navy	55	2
109	Western Michigan	55	2
110	Utah State	54	2
111	Central Michigan	53.5	2
112	Ohio	53	2
113	Tulsa	53	1
114	Georgia State	52.5	2
115	Southern Mississippi	52.5	2
116	Florida Atlantic	52	2
117	Charlotte	51	1
118	Sam Houston State	51	2
119	Ball State	50.5	2
120	Buffalo	49.5	1
121	Connecticut	49	2
122	Eastern Michigan	49	2
123	Louisiana-Monroe	49	2
124	New Mexico	49	1
125	Middle Tennessee	48	2
126	New Mexico State	48	2.5
127	Akron	46	1
128	Louisiana Tech	46	2
129	UTEP	46	2
130	Massachusetts	45.5	1
131	Kent State	45	2
132	Florida International	44.5	1
133	Temple	44	2
134	Kennesaw State	43	2

Here are my Week 1 Power Ratings Adjustments:

Up: Coastal Carolina +4, UL Monroe +2, Buffalo +1, UAB +1, Indiana +2, Pitt +2, Old Dominion +1.5, Penn State +1.5, New Mexico +2, Arizona State +3, Miami (OH) +1, Nevada +5, Vanderbilt +2, Sam Houston State +2, Hawaii +2, Alabama +1.5, Iowa +1, Tennessee +1, Arkansas +1.5, TCU +2, Georgia +2, Miami (FL) +1.5, Eastern Michigan +1, South Alabama +1, UNLV +1.5, Georgia Tech +1.5, USC +2, 

Down: North Carolina -3.5 (adj + Johnson inj.), Jacksonville State -3, NC State -2, Michigan State -1, Duke -2, FIU -1, UTSA -2, UMass -1.5, Ohio -1.5, South Carolina -3, Wyoming -4, Northwestern -1.5, Troy -2, Virginia Tech -2.5, Rice -2.5, UCLA -2, Middle Tennessee -2, Arkansas State -2, Texas Tech -3, Oregon -1, Texas State -1, Stanford -2, Florida Atlantic -2, Clemson -2, Michigan -1.5, Cal -3, Houston -2, Louisiana Tech -2, James Madison -2, New Mexico State -2, Florida State -7

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Nevada +5: “One could be an outlier. Two is likely a pattern.” That’s what I said to open this article and we have a pattern forming with Nevada. They could very well have beaten a pretty good SMU team in Week 0 and did go on the road and beat Troy in Week 1. First-year head coach Jeff Choate is doing WORK in Reno.

Coastal Carolina +4: I downgraded Coastal before the season for the loss of Grayson McCall (we worried about NC State?! – they had 212 of their 521 yards on their last three drives), but the Chanticleers pummeled Jacksonville State and got whatever they wanted on offense. I’ve gotta respect it.

Arizona State +3: It was a good Week 1, but Wyoming was a Javier Baez-sized swing and miss. The Sun Devils got a nice bump and the Cowboys were my biggest downgrade…

Florida State -7: At least until Florida State played on Monday. A second bad performance and this one way worse than the first. Getting spanked at home by a very mid Boston College team after that showing in Dublin was really something. It was clear I didn’t adjust the Seminoles down enough after last week based on my line for this week, so I took drastic measures.

Wyoming -4: This is a case where I was wrong on the line and the game followed suit, as I had it lined 3.5. Arizona State closed -7 and might as well have closed -37 with how the game played out. So, this is a double adjustment, where my line was trash and so was my team’s performance.

North Carolina -3.5: My Alt Over 8.5 lived to fight another day, but UNC did not play well at all. Max Johnson also got hurt, and while he wasn’t very good in the game, he still more or less won the job over Conner Harrell, so this has to be some sort of downgrade.

South Carolina -3: Shane Beamer was displeased with his team during the postgame interview and who can blame him? There’s winning ugly and then there’s winning whatever that was. LaNorris Sellers was 10-of-23 passing and South Carolina needed a +3 TO margin to barely win. I’m genuinely concerned their only wins left this season are Akron and Wofford.

Texas Tech -3: Speaking of awful performances, Texas Tech barely held off Abilene Christian in a 52-51 win. Imagine giving up 51 points without turning the ball over. The Wildcats had 615 yards. Probably not a good sign going forward.

By the way, I only bumped them two points, but Arkansas State needed a seven-play, 70-yard TD drive in the final 49 seconds to squeak past Central Arkansas 34-31.

Here are my Week 2 college football betting lines:

(sorted by Rotation Number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
9/6	BYU	SMU	-12
	Duke	Northwestern	-4.5
9/7	Georgia Tech	Syracuse	+5.5
	Kansas State	Tulane	+9.5
	Bowling Green	Penn State	-30.5
	Troy	Memphis	-15
	Pitt	Cincinnati	-0.5
	Akron	Rutgers	-25
	Army	FAU	+2
	Texas	Michigan	+5
	Arkansas	Oklahoma State	-10
	California	Auburn	-12
	Jacksonville State	Louisville	-23.5
	Temple	Navy	-13
	Baylor	Utah	-14.5
	South Carolina	Kentucky	-8.5
	Charlotte	North Carolina	-19
	Northern Illinois	Notre Dame	-32
	Eastern Michigan	Washington	-28
	UMass	Toledo	-16
	Iowa State	Iowa	-1.5
	Michigan State	Maryland	-9
	UTSA	Texas State	-1
	Middle Tennessee	Ole Miss	-41.5
	Marshall	Virginia Tech	-18
	Central Michigan	FIU	+8
	East Carolina	Old Dominion	-2.5
	South Alabama	Ohio	+4
	Sam Houston State	UCF	-25
	South Florida	Alabama	-28
	Buffalo	Missouri	-34.5
	Virginia	Wake Forest	-1
	Kansas	Illinois	+8.5
	Georgia Southern	Nevada	+0.5
	San Jose State	Air Force	-6.5
	UAB	UL Monroe	+7
	Tulsa	Arkansas State	-8
	Louisiana	Kennesaw State	+13
	Western Michigan	Ohio State	-41.5
	Colorado	Nebraska	-4.5
	Houston	Oklahoma	-25
	App State	Clemson	-15
	Boise State	Oregon	-22.5
	Texas Tech	Washington State	+0.5
	Liberty	New Mexico State	+18
	Oregon State	San Diego State	+6
	Mississippi State	Arizona State	-3.5
	Utah State	USC	-28
	Tennessee	NC State (N – Charlotte)	+11

Some games of interest based on my Power Ratings:

Army +2.5 (-2) at FAU: FAU was on my fade list coming into the season. The big effort against Michigan State was all well and good, but I still don’t think they deserve to be favored here. As bad as Aidan Chiles was, Michigan State had 4.8 yards per carry.

Charlotte +22 (+19) at North Carolina: I guess the market thinks there’s no drop-off from Johnson to Harrell? I actually disagree. Also, Charlotte took all that money against James Madison last week, only to find out a bunch of guys were banged-up, and the line came back down again after going up. They won’t win, but I’d be surprised if UNC really lays it on them.

Central Michigan -4 (-8) at FIU: This was an initial mover today with FIU taking some interest. I’m not sure I’d ever be interested in taking FIU. I know Central Connecticut is one of the worst Division I teams in the nation, but CMU had 42 at halftime and did it with ease.

South Alabama -1.5 (-4) at Ohio: I’ll tell you what – South Alabama’s defense got victimized by North Texas’s offense, but Gio Lopez played damn well. I wasn’t expecting that. Major Applewhite should have a good offense here and that’s enough, I think, against Ohio.

Louisiana-Monroe +13 (+7) vs. UAB: I know I like the Over in this game more than anything, but UL Monroe is on my “buy” list for this season with Bryant Vincent as the head coach. This is my biggest overlay of the week and I disagree with the line move. I even searched Twitter to find out if General Booty was hurt and, well, the search results were interesting. (He isn’t)

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.