Week 2 College Football Power Ratings:
One could be an outlier. Two is likely a pattern.
That’s how I approach Week 2 of the college football season from a power ratings standpoint. My College Football Power Ratings are meticulously analyzed and researched over the offseason, so I don’t want to throw away several weeks of hard work based on one data point. However, if a team has another great performance or an awful one as an encore, that’s when I really take notice.
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So, even though early-season college football is prone to overreaction, you won’t see a whole lot of big adjustments to teams for this week. As I said with the first line, you’ve got one or maybe two chances to show me something before I make a big adjustment.
There are 134 FBS teams. It is impossible to be right about every one of them, so I fully expect to ingest some slices of humble pie and wash it down with some Kool-Aid. Anybody setting their own lines should be prepared for that. While the social media circles of sports betting are filled with ego and showcase a true lack of humility, I find it perfectly reasonable to admit when I’m wrong, acknowledge when I’m right, and stay balanced throughout the process.
Speaking of the process, allow me to reiterate what steps I take when it comes to making adjustments on a weekly basis.
1. Compare my line to the closing line.
Let’s look at James Madison vs. Charlotte. I had James Madison -12 in that game and they closed as low as -6 in some spots. Despite a 30-7 win that implies my line was better than the market line, I still respect the betting market enough to drop James Madison a little bit in my ratings. Time will tell if I’m right in doing that, but I can’t let patting myself on the back get in the way of aiming for a more accurate number.
2. Study the box score.
A final score can only tell you so much. Digging deeper into the box score matters. San Jose State beat Sacramento State 42-24, but it was a 24-21 game after three quarters and not in favor of the Spartans. The yards were 387-356 and San Jose State ran for just two yards per carry. I didn’t upgrade or downgrade San Jose State because it was a close line, but it was not really an 18-point win in the box score.
I think Ohio and Syracuse is a good example. My line was 14.5 and the game closed 17. I downgraded Ohio, but I didn’t upgrade Syracuse. The Orange gave up 6.5 yards per carry to a MAC school. Notably, my line on Georgia Tech/Syracuse is a little light and I could see myself on the Yellow Jackets.
3. Check for injuries.
There were a few. Sometimes it’s hard to get injury info until Tuesday or Wednesday, as teams are very protective of the health of college kids and it sometimes takes a little bit of time to come out. Unless it’s a really notable QB injury, the juice sometimes isn’t fully worth the squeeze to dig and dig on Sunday.
Here are my Week 2 College Football Power Ratings:
Rank | Team | PR | HFA |
1 | Georgia | 97 | 3 |
2 | Ohio State | 93 | 3.5 |
3 | Alabama | 90.5 | 3.5 |
4 | Oregon | 90.5 | 3.5 |
5 | Texas | 90 | 3.5 |
6 | Mississippi | 86 | 3.5 |
7 | Notre Dame | 86 | 3.5 |
8 | Penn State | 86 | 3.5 |
9 | LSU | 85 | 3.5 |
10 | Oklahoma | 83 | 3.5 |
11 | Tennessee | 83 | 3.5 |
12 | Missouri | 82 | 2 |
13 | Michigan | 81.5 | 3.5 |
14 | Texas A&M | 81.5 | 3 |
15 | Miami (Florida) | 80.5 | 2 |
16 | USC | 80 | 2 |
17 | Clemson | 79.5 | 3 |
18 | Kansas State | 79.5 | 3.5 |
19 | Utah | 79.5 | 3.5 |
20 | Oklahoma State | 77 | 3.5 |
21 | Arizona | 77 | 2 |
22 | TCU | 77 | 2.5 |
23 | Iowa State | 76.5 | 2 |
24 | Auburn | 76 | 2 |
25 | Kansas | 76 | 2 |
26 | Kentucky | 76 | 2.5 |
27 | Louisville | 76 | 3.5 |
28 | Iowa | 75.5 | 2.5 |
29 | Washington | 75 | 2 |
30 | Georgia Tech | 74.5 | 1 |
31 | Florida State | 74 | 2 |
32 | Florida | 74 | 2 |
33 | Wisconsin | 74 | 2 |
34 | SMU | 73.5 | 3.5 |
35 | UCF | 73 | 3 |
36 | Virginia Tech | 73 | 2 |
37 | West Virginia | 73 | 3 |
38 | Nebraska | 72.5 | 2 |
39 | North Carolina State | 72 | 3.5 |
40 | Boise State | 71.5 | 2.5 |
41 | Maryland | 71 | 2 |
42 | Memphis | 71 | 2 |
43 | Arkansas | 70.5 | 2 |
44 | Colorado | 70 | 2 |
45 | South Carolina | 70 | 2.5 |
46 | Rutgers | 69 | 2 |
47 | Texas Tech | 69 | 2.5 |
48 | UCLA | 69 | 2 |
49 | Baylor | 68.5 | 2 |
50 | Liberty | 68.5 | 3 |
51 | Tulane | 68 | 2 |
52 | Appalachian State | 67.5 | 2.5 |
53 | North Carolina | 67.5 | 2.5 |
54 | Pittsburgh | 67.5 | 2 |
55 | Indiana | 67 | 1.5 |
56 | Arizona State | 66.5 | 2 |
57 | Minnesota | 66.5 | 2 |
58 | Syracuse | 66.5 | 2.5 |
59 | California | 66 | 2 |
60 | Cincinnati | 66 | 2 |
61 | Oregon State | 66 | 3.5 |
62 | South Florida | 66 | 2 |
63 | Washington State | 66 | 2.5 |
64 | Illinois | 65.5 | 2 |
65 | UNLV | 65.5 | 2 |
66 | Virginia | 65.5 | 2 |
67 | BYU | 65 | 2 |
68 | Fresno State | 65 | 2.5 |
69 | Mississippi State | 65 | 2 |
70 | Northwestern | 65 | 1.5 |
71 | Purdue | 65 | 2 |
72 | Michigan State | 64 | 2.5 |
73 | UTSA | 64 | 3.5 |
74 | Wake Forest | 64 | 2.5 |
75 | Boston College | 63 | 1.5 |
76 | Texas State | 63 | 2 |
77 | Coastal Carolina | 62 | 2.5 |
78 | Duke | 62 | 3 |
79 | James Madison | 62 | 3.5 |
80 | Miami (Ohio) | 62 | 3 |
81 | Houston | 61.5 | 2 |
82 | Stanford | 61.5 | 1 |
83 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 61 | 3 |
84 | Air Force | 60 | 2.5 |
85 | Western Kentucky | 60 | 2.5 |
86 | Arkansas State | 59 | 2 |
87 | Bowling Green | 59 | 2 |
88 | South Alabama | 59 | 2.5 |
89 | Toledo | 59 | 2.5 |
90 | Vanderbilt | 59 | 1 |
91 | Wyoming | 58.5 | 2.5 |
92 | Colorado State | 58 | 1 |
93 | San Diego State | 58 | 2 |
94 | Troy | 58 | 2.5 |
95 | UAB | 58 | 2.5 |
96 | Georgia Southern | 57.5 | 2 |
97 | Northern Illinois | 57.5 | 1.5 |
98 | Old Dominion | 57.5 | 2 |
99 | East Carolina | 57 | 2 |
100 | Marshall | 57 | 2 |
101 | North Texas | 57 | 2 |
102 | Rice | 56.5 | 2 |
103 | Army | 56 | 2 |
104 | Jacksonville State | 56 | 2.5 |
105 | San Jose State | 56 | 2 |
106 | Nevada | 55.5 | 1.5 |
107 | Hawai’i | 55 | 2 |
108 | Navy | 55 | 2 |
109 | Western Michigan | 55 | 2 |
110 | Utah State | 54 | 2 |
111 | Central Michigan | 53.5 | 2 |
112 | Ohio | 53 | 2 |
113 | Tulsa | 53 | 1 |
114 | Georgia State | 52.5 | 2 |
115 | Southern Mississippi | 52.5 | 2 |
116 | Florida Atlantic | 52 | 2 |
117 | Charlotte | 51 | 1 |
118 | Sam Houston State | 51 | 2 |
119 | Ball State | 50.5 | 2 |
120 | Buffalo | 49.5 | 1 |
121 | Connecticut | 49 | 2 |
122 | Eastern Michigan | 49 | 2 |
123 | Louisiana-Monroe | 49 | 2 |
124 | New Mexico | 49 | 1 |
125 | Middle Tennessee | 48 | 2 |
126 | New Mexico State | 48 | 2.5 |
127 | Akron | 46 | 1 |
128 | Louisiana Tech | 46 | 2 |
129 | UTEP | 46 | 2 |
130 | Massachusetts | 45.5 | 1 |
131 | Kent State | 45 | 2 |
132 | Florida International | 44.5 | 1 |
133 | Temple | 44 | 2 |
134 | Kennesaw State | 43 | 2 |
Here are my Week 1 Power Ratings Adjustments:
Up: Coastal Carolina +4, UL Monroe +2, Buffalo +1, UAB +1, Indiana +2, Pitt +2, Old Dominion +1.5, Penn State +1.5, New Mexico +2, Arizona State +3, Miami (OH) +1, Nevada +5, Vanderbilt +2, Sam Houston State +2, Hawaii +2, Alabama +1.5, Iowa +1, Tennessee +1, Arkansas +1.5, TCU +2, Georgia +2, Miami (FL) +1.5, Eastern Michigan +1, South Alabama +1, UNLV +1.5, Georgia Tech +1.5, USC +2,
Down: North Carolina -3.5 (adj + Johnson inj.), Jacksonville State -3, NC State -2, Michigan State -1, Duke -2, FIU -1, UTSA -2, UMass -1.5, Ohio -1.5, South Carolina -3, Wyoming -4, Northwestern -1.5, Troy -2, Virginia Tech -2.5, Rice -2.5, UCLA -2, Middle Tennessee -2, Arkansas State -2, Texas Tech -3, Oregon -1, Texas State -1, Stanford -2, Florida Atlantic -2, Clemson -2, Michigan -1.5, Cal -3, Houston -2, Louisiana Tech -2, James Madison -2, New Mexico State -2, Florida State -7
Some notes on the biggest movers:
Nevada +5: “One could be an outlier. Two is likely a pattern.” That’s what I said to open this article and we have a pattern forming with Nevada. They could very well have beaten a pretty good SMU team in Week 0 and did go on the road and beat Troy in Week 1. First-year head coach Jeff Choate is doing WORK in Reno.
Coastal Carolina +4: I downgraded Coastal before the season for the loss of Grayson McCall (we worried about NC State?! – they had 212 of their 521 yards on their last three drives), but the Chanticleers pummeled Jacksonville State and got whatever they wanted on offense. I’ve gotta respect it.
Arizona State +3: It was a good Week 1, but Wyoming was a Javier Baez-sized swing and miss. The Sun Devils got a nice bump and the Cowboys were my biggest downgrade…
Florida State -7: At least until Florida State played on Monday. A second bad performance and this one way worse than the first. Getting spanked at home by a very mid Boston College team after that showing in Dublin was really something. It was clear I didn’t adjust the Seminoles down enough after last week based on my line for this week, so I took drastic measures.
Wyoming -4: This is a case where I was wrong on the line and the game followed suit, as I had it lined 3.5. Arizona State closed -7 and might as well have closed -37 with how the game played out. So, this is a double adjustment, where my line was trash and so was my team’s performance.
North Carolina -3.5: My Alt Over 8.5 lived to fight another day, but UNC did not play well at all. Max Johnson also got hurt, and while he wasn’t very good in the game, he still more or less won the job over Conner Harrell, so this has to be some sort of downgrade.
South Carolina -3: Shane Beamer was displeased with his team during the postgame interview and who can blame him? There’s winning ugly and then there’s winning whatever that was. LaNorris Sellers was 10-of-23 passing and South Carolina needed a +3 TO margin to barely win. I’m genuinely concerned their only wins left this season are Akron and Wofford.
Texas Tech -3: Speaking of awful performances, Texas Tech barely held off Abilene Christian in a 52-51 win. Imagine giving up 51 points without turning the ball over. The Wildcats had 615 yards. Probably not a good sign going forward.
By the way, I only bumped them two points, but Arkansas State needed a seven-play, 70-yard TD drive in the final 49 seconds to squeak past Central Arkansas 34-31.
Here are my Week 2 college football betting lines:
(sorted by Rotation Number)
Date | Away Team | Home Team | Line |
9/6 | BYU | SMU | -12 |
Duke | Northwestern | -4.5 | |
9/7 | Georgia Tech | Syracuse | +5.5 |
Kansas State | Tulane | +9.5 | |
Bowling Green | Penn State | -30.5 | |
Troy | Memphis | -15 | |
Pitt | Cincinnati | -0.5 | |
Akron | Rutgers | -25 | |
Army | FAU | +2 | |
Texas | Michigan | +5 | |
Arkansas | Oklahoma State | -10 | |
California | Auburn | -12 | |
Jacksonville State | Louisville | -23.5 | |
Temple | Navy | -13 | |
Baylor | Utah | -14.5 | |
South Carolina | Kentucky | -8.5 | |
Charlotte | North Carolina | -19 | |
Northern Illinois | Notre Dame | -32 | |
Eastern Michigan | Washington | -28 | |
UMass | Toledo | -16 | |
Iowa State | Iowa | -1.5 | |
Michigan State | Maryland | -9 | |
UTSA | Texas State | -1 | |
Middle Tennessee | Ole Miss | -41.5 | |
Marshall | Virginia Tech | -18 | |
Central Michigan | FIU | +8 | |
East Carolina | Old Dominion | -2.5 | |
South Alabama | Ohio | +4 | |
Sam Houston State | UCF | -25 | |
South Florida | Alabama | -28 | |
Buffalo | Missouri | -34.5 | |
Virginia | Wake Forest | -1 | |
Kansas | Illinois | +8.5 | |
Georgia Southern | Nevada | +0.5 | |
San Jose State | Air Force | -6.5 | |
UAB | UL Monroe | +7 | |
Tulsa | Arkansas State | -8 | |
Louisiana | Kennesaw State | +13 | |
Western Michigan | Ohio State | -41.5 | |
Colorado | Nebraska | -4.5 | |
Houston | Oklahoma | -25 | |
App State | Clemson | -15 | |
Boise State | Oregon | -22.5 | |
Texas Tech | Washington State | +0.5 | |
Liberty | New Mexico State | +18 | |
Oregon State | San Diego State | +6 | |
Mississippi State | Arizona State | -3.5 | |
Utah State | USC | -28 | |
Tennessee | NC State (N – Charlotte) | +11 |
Some games of interest based on my Power Ratings:
Army +2.5 (-2) at FAU: FAU was on my fade list coming into the season. The big effort against Michigan State was all well and good, but I still don’t think they deserve to be favored here. As bad as Aidan Chiles was, Michigan State had 4.8 yards per carry.
Charlotte +22 (+19) at North Carolina: I guess the market thinks there’s no drop-off from Johnson to Harrell? I actually disagree. Also, Charlotte took all that money against James Madison last week, only to find out a bunch of guys were banged-up, and the line came back down again after going up. They won’t win, but I’d be surprised if UNC really lays it on them.
Central Michigan -4 (-8) at FIU: This was an initial mover today with FIU taking some interest. I’m not sure I’d ever be interested in taking FIU. I know Central Connecticut is one of the worst Division I teams in the nation, but CMU had 42 at halftime and did it with ease.
South Alabama -1.5 (-4) at Ohio: I’ll tell you what – South Alabama’s defense got victimized by North Texas’s offense, but Gio Lopez played damn well. I wasn’t expecting that. Major Applewhite should have a good offense here and that’s enough, I think, against Ohio.
Louisiana-Monroe +13 (+7) vs. UAB: I know I like the Over in this game more than anything, but UL Monroe is on my “buy” list for this season with Bryant Vincent as the head coach. This is my biggest overlay of the week and I disagree with the line move. I even searched Twitter to find out if General Booty was hurt and, well, the search results were interesting. (He isn’t)
I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.