Week 2 College Football Predictions:

Week 2 of the college football season brings us a whole bunch of games and a chance to get a look at all of these teams once again. As I’ve talked about on various show appearances and in my College Football Power Ratings update, there will be a lot of overreactions this week and next week based on what we saw in Weeks 0 and 1. These teams may not necessarily be what we saw in that first game.

On the other hand, some might be, and sometimes you may make a really ill-advised bet in Week 2 or Week 3. It happens. But, you don’t want to throw away your priors, your summer work, and your opinions just based on one game. I think there are some overreactions in the market, some games that my Power Ratings like, and some other qualitative angles to consider.

 

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Here are my Week 2 College Football Predictions:

Army Black Knights at Florida Atlantic Owls (-4, 42.5)

Saturday, Noon ET, CBS Sports Network

You can find enough change in the couch cushions to buy a ticket to this one down in Boca Raton, as the Owls host the Black Knights. Tickets were listed for as low as $4 on Vivid Seats on the ESPN schedule page, so it is clear that FAU football is in good shape these days.

The Owls more than hung with Michigan State last week and maybe some people came away impressed from that performance. Given the matchup this week and the recent trend line for FAU football, I’ll go the other way.

I have Army -2.5 in my Power Ratings, so if I’m wrong, I’ll make a hefty adjustment, but FAU is facing a very disciplined opponent this week that has gone back under center to run the more traditional triple-option offense that these kids were recruited to run. Bryson Daily had nice command of the offense in Week 1, as Army ran for 375 yards and 6.7 yards per carry against Lehigh.

Obviously the opponent is stronger this week, but while the Owls held Sparty to 16 points, they still gave up 179 rushing yards and 4.84 yards per pop. The offense also only managed 3.44 yards while trying its damndest to get Cam Fancher killed. He was sacked seven times and had 25 of the team’s 47 carries.

Gimme Army at +3 or better.

Pick: Army +4

UAB Blazers (-13, 53.5) at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

7 p.m. ET, ESPN+

This is a VERY personal game for ULM head coach Bryant Vincent. When Bill Clark stepped down to focus on his health, the UAB players openly rallied for Vincent to be named the head coach. The administration went in a dramatically different direction hiring Trent Dilfer from Lipscomb Academy in Tennessee.

Vincent went to New Mexico and had one of the largest offensive turnarounds in the nation and parlayed that OC gig into the head coaching job at Louisiana-Monroe. This game means a lot to him and his team played very well against a decent FCS program in Jackson State last week. UAB disposed of Alcorn State by a bigger margin, but the Braves are very one-dimensional.

Am I concerned that Jacobian Morgan was 23-of-28 for 228 yards with a TD and a pick and UAB has a very good QB in Jacob Zeno? Sure. At the same time, I expect ULM’s offense to improve drastically this season. Their running game already looked a lot better and General Booty only threw 14 times, so Vincent gave very little away in that 30-14 win.

Also, I’m getting a 13-point head start with the Warhawks, who I expected to be a little bit underrated coming into the season because they haven’t really been good in a long time. But, I think Vincent has some chops, I’m still not sold on Dilfer, and it’s Super Bowl week for a coach looking for revenge against his former employer. I have UAB -7 here, so this is one of my biggest overlays of the week.

Pick: Louisiana-Monroe +13

Liberty Flames (-22.5, 56) at New Mexico State Aggies

10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Liberty entered the season as one of the most popular picks to earn the Group of Five bid for the expanded College Football Playoff. They get a spotlight game on ESPN2 here in hopes of making an early case for that honor.

New Mexico State looked bad last week against Southeast Missouri State. Jeff Sagarin does have SEMO State respectably ranked at 166th in the nation, but it was not a good “life after Diego Pavia” showing. The Aggies had 270 yards on 72 plays and went 7-of-23 passing for 60 yards. Parker Awad led the team, going 5-of-17 for 37 yards. NMSU trailed entering the fourth quarter and had a safety, a 51-yard field goal, and a 34-yard touchdown drive in the second half.

Liberty paced themselves hanging 41 on Campbell last week. It was not the best defensive performance by any means, but the Flames had 41 points and 533 yards over 36:02 of possession, so the defense didn’t really have to do much. They had a couple coverage breakdowns that led to big plays and that was it.

Kaidon Salter is the best player on the field for either team and he should shine here. My only hesitation is a very late kickoff in Las Cruces, but that’s really about it. Pavia ain’t walking through that door and Liberty, defensive warts and all, is way better than SEMO State, who held the Aggies to 3.75 yards per play.

Pick: Liberty -22.5

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