NFL Odds Week 1
Much like the last two weeks in college football, referring to this as the “Opening” Line Report is a bit of a misnomer for NFL Week 1. These lines have been up since the spring and have seen some minor and modest movements here and there based on news and betting action, but we’ll see the odds screen really liven up this week now that the games feel more like a reality and betting limits will increase.
It is a unique week, as we have a Wednesday game, a Thursday game in Australia, and then two days without the NFL until Sunday. While the NFL’s roster turnover and coaching carousel are nothing like the chaos we see on the college side, there are 10 new head coaches and a lot of new coordinators this season. Even though we know most of the players and headline-grabbing transactions were few and far between, there is still a degree of uncertainty to Week 1.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 1 NFL Odds Report:
Patriots at Seahawks (-3.5, 44.5)
Wednesday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
The NFL’s kickoff game will be a celebration for the Seahawks, as they will have a pregame ceremony to honor the reigning Super Bowl champs and start their quest for a repeat. Obviously we’ll have all the talking heads discussing a revenge game for the Patriots, who were really no match for Seattle in the Big Game back in February. We haven’t really seen much in the way of line movement here. Some shops opened -4 and sit -3.5. Some shops are shading the 3.5 one way or the other based on how the balance sheet looks. The total has seen some movement to the Under, not a big surprise given Drake Maye’s postseason showing. Also, we have seen teams start slow given how most starters don’t play in training camp.
49ers vs. Rams (-3.5, 48.5)
Thursday, 8:35 p.m. ET (Netflix)
The NFL’s first game in Australia is only available with a Netflix subscription, as these two NFC West rivals head out to Melbourne to start the season Down Under. Way back when in the spring, DraftKings opened this line -2.5 and it moved pretty quickly to -3 and then moved up to -3.5 shortly thereafter. There are some 4s out there as game week has arrived, even though Aaron Donald just announced his return, Myles Garrett didn’t practice much with a bum knee, and we don’t even know about Puka Nacua’s status stemming from some offseason issues. But, we do know that the 49ers had a bunch of walking wounded in training camp, as the electrical substation reared its ugly head. Like the Wednesday primetime game, early indications lean towards the Under with a slight move down a point or so at most shops.
Browns at Jaguars (-7.5, 40.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
A lot of Survivor contestants will be hoping that the Jaguars defend their home turf here against the Browns. This is not the biggest favorite of the week, but could be the most popular pick. Love for the Browns is hard to find in the betting market, as all the splits show preference towards Jacksonville here, which has moved the line slightly up from 7.5 to 8 at some places. This is a rare game, though, in that the total has actually moved up a little bit from 39.5 to 40.5. Deshaun Watson doesn’t inspire much confidence, but the Browns have a much improved crop of skill-position guys.
Buccaneers at Bengals (-3.5, 50.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Any game up north for Tampa Bay that comes before December or January is a good thing, as they’ll head to Cincinnati when it’s still pretty warm along the shores of the Ohio River. That said, the early action has favored the favorite, with Cincinnati crossing over that key number of 3 at some books and all the way up to 4. Most of the books with 3.5 on the game have a little bit of extra vig on the Cincinnati side. This is a game where the total has moved down from 52.5 to 50.5, with some places sitting comfortably in between while waiting to see what the bigger game-week bets bring.
Ravens (-3.5, 48.5) at Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Jesse Minter era begins as a road favorite. As a road favorite, John Harbaugh was 55-27 SU and 44-35-3 ATS per the KillerSports database, so he was a 55.7% proposition when laying points away from home. Based on the lookahead numbers for the season, the Ravens are laying points five times outside of Maryland. We’ll see if they can start in the win column here against Daniel Jones and the Colts. Neither Jones nor Lamar Jackson saw preseason action, as this is another game where the line movement shows a preference towards the Under as opposed to the Over. DraftKings is still holding at their opener of 48.5, but other shops have gone as low as 47.5.
Falcons at Steelers (-3.5, 41.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
How ironic that former Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski begins his tenure with a new team against the hated Steelers. This line is predominantly -3.5 with lessened juice across the market, with a rogue 3 or two hanging around. We didn’t really get a great indication of what the Atlanta offense will look like because Tua Tagovailoa looked terrible and Michael Penix Jr. was coming back from injury. Aaron Rodgers didn’t play in the preseason for the Steelers. Despite those concerns, this total has either stood still or inched up a half-point from where it was in the spring.
Bills (-1.5, 44.5) at Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Not surprisingly, this line is hovering around a pick ‘em, and some shops even have the Texans favored over Joe Brady and the Bills. It will be Brady’s first crack as a head coach, while DeMeco Ryans has done some fine work in the Lone Star State and is likely a more trustworthy commodity for those shaping the markets early on. That said, the majority of sportsbooks have Buffalo as a road favorite here. I don’t think many lines will move this week or have an interesting life cycle, but this may very well be one. The total was 44.5 over the spring and is still there across the market.
Bears (-2.5, 47.5) at Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
It is a new era of Bears football. Per the KillerSports database, Chicago was a road favorite once last season and beat the Bengals 47-42, covering 2.5 in the process. Prior to that, the last time that the Bears were favored on the road was Week 12 of the 2021 season. They won, but failed to cover in that game, for what it’s worth. Looking ahead, this is one of three likely road favorite roles for Chicago, with the others coming against the Falcons in Week 6 and Dolphins in Week 14. There can’t be too many instances of a reigning division champion catching points at home in Week 1, but there also aren’t many instances of an 8-9 division champ. This is a total that has gone up a couple of points since the spring.
Jets at Titans (-1.5, 39.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
We’ll see if this line holds. If so, the Titans are a home favorite for the first time since Week 18 of the 2024 season, as they were not favored at all last season. They have failed to cover six straight times as a favorite, and have lost five of those games outright, so we’ll see if they can break that mold to start 1-0 here in 2026. Of course, the game could land 1, but that’s a pretty big long shot. Nevertheless, the Titans have expectations here. As far as the total goes, it’s split between 38.5 and 39.5 across most of the market, not much of a movement from the spring.
Saints at Lions (-7, 49.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Better days are expected in New Orleans this season, but maybe not right away with a Week 1 tilt against the Lions. Some 6.5s were out there over the warmer months, but with the week of the game here, we’re seeing pretty much exclusively 7. The rogue 6.5 sitting out there has some heavy vig on it, but some of the full 7s are not the flat -110 at most shops, rather sitting -105. This line will probably dance around from a vig standpoint on 7, but I’m not sure that we’ll see 6.5 or 7.5 as anything more than a line in the water for sportsbooks to see if they get some bites. As far as the total goes, this one has inched up a little bit, but hasn’t crossed any key numbers or anything of that sort.
Cardinals at Chargers (-10.5, 46.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Those who don’t take the Jaguars in Survivor are likely going to look at this one with the Chargers. If this line holds, it will be the first time since Week 16 of the 2021 season that the Chargers have been favored by 10 or more points per the KillerSports database. Given all of the talent and all of the preseason hype on an annual basis for the Chargers, that is kind of hard to believe in my opinion. Furthermore, LAC’s last two favorite roles of 10+ came on the road, so this is their first home favorite role of that size since Week 14 in 2018. But, this is a good indication of the market rating for Arizona, who is very much expected to be one of the worst teams we’ve seen in a while. Regarding the total, this one has ticked up from the spring.
Dolphins at Raiders (-3.5, 40.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
These two teams are expected to bring up the rear in their respective divisions, but one of them will be tied for first place after Week 1, so long as we don’t get a tie here. As expected, the Raiders will go with Kirk Cousins at QB, as Fernando Mendoza will get the chance to sit behind a longtime starter and learn for a little while. The Dolphins looked pretty poor in the preseason, as this line sits 3.5 market-wide. It was 3 for a time in the spring and summer, but that was mostly with extra juice, so the move to 3.5 hardly came as a surprise. This total has pretty much been stagnant for a while.
Commanders at Eagles (-5.5, 44.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
Even though the extra point getting pushed back put more single-digit numbers in play for final scores, it still doesn’t take a whole lot to move a betting line that sits between 4 and 6. To that end, once this line moved off of -4, the next point of resistance would really be -6. That’s why we see 5.5, 5, and 4.5 depending on the sportsbook. Even though we may see all the books eventually settle on the same number, this is one of those that will move based on need rather than move to better align with the market. The total has come down pretty significantly from where it opened at 47.5, as the training camp reports on Jalen Hurts weren’t great.
Packers at Vikings (-1.5, 46.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Technically, the Packers opened a road favorite in this one, but Minnesota flipped to the chalk side in mid-August. Kevin O’Connell named Kyler Murray his starting QB pretty early on in the process, while Green Bay mostly spent camp wondering what the punishment for Josh Jacobs would be. As it turns out, Jacobs is on the commissioner’s exempt list and will not be out there for this one. Speculation may have had something to do with this line move. It hasn’t really impacted the total, as this one is sitting 45.5 to 46.5, depending on the book. Much like the spread for Commanders/Eagles, 46 is not a key number on totals. 45 and 47 are, so sitting between there will lead to some difference of opinion.
Cowboys (-2.5, 48.5) at Giants
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
League execs have to be happy with this one, as the major markets of DFW and NYC get the primetime spotlight and it just so happens to be John Harbaugh’s debut with the Giants. From a betting standpoint, this line is 2.5 with extra juice or 3, depending on where the book is comfortable with sitting heading into game week. As a standalone game, we’ll see some influential market movement and things like that, but a lot of the public action will hit the board later after recreational bettors see where they stand following the day’s games. Expect Over money to come in here, as is often the case in Cowboys games. For now, 48 or 48.5 is where we sit.
Broncos vs. Chiefs (-2.5, 42.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
As you can see, this line accounts for Patrick Mahomes being out there for the Chiefs. If he wasn’t going to be out there, we’d see the Broncos favored. And, if something happens this week in practice and he doesn’t look ready to go, the Broncos will be favored. Right now, Denver has still taken the majority of the bets given that Mahomes might be able to go, but he didn’t get any preseason action and had some days with limited reps in practice. It’s a big ask in the minds of some and that’s why we’re holding 2.5 with extra juice in case of going to 3. As far as the total goes, not much movement with the 42.5 number.
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