Week 3 College Football Best Bets:

Coming off a 10-6 week 2 set of Best Bets, I’ve put together my list of Week 3 college football best bets. We have another loaded College Football Analytics Report ready for readers on VSiN.com, and I encourage everyone reading this to take all of that info in as well. You might see something I missed or perhaps like even more than I do. Not everyone interprets or values sets of data the same. 

As far as my season-long record is concerned, the FIU-Indiana game in Week 1 will stand as a loss for me, as I need to count my wins and losses against the number I picked it against at that time. Hopefully, it was still a winner for you. I also was the beneficiary of getting Oklahoma State at -7 midweek. I don’t think I would have played it at -10. That said, my season record for college football stands at 15-10 (60%) heading into this weekend’s games. The slate isn’t nearly as attractive as next week’s looks, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value for bettors. I’ll caution you, though, I have a lot of opinions this week. Here are the 20 games I’m getting behind:

 

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UNLV at Kansas

Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

At last check, UNLV was being backed by over 80% of the handle at DraftKings. Normally, that’s not a good sign, but there is that rare winning angle on sides where the public gets behind road dogs. They have actually won money over the last couple of seasons. Why are they backing the Runnin’ Rebels here in what would figure to be a difficult spot on the road against a Big 12 team? Well, perhaps they’ve seen the tendencies. UNLV is on a 21-5 ATS run in non-conference play and 13-4 ATS coming off a straight-up win. Perhaps they like that head coach Dave Odom’s team has carried on the momentum of last year’s nine-win season by putting up 99 points in a 2-0 start. It also could be anti-Kansas sentiment, as the Jayhawks are just 3-13 ATS as favorites since 2018 and didn’t look to be their usual explosive selves last week in losing at Illinois. Whatever the case, this does look like a good underdog spot, with both teams expected to score.

Week 3 college football best bet: I’ll take UNLV +7 on Friday night

Arizona at Kansas State

Friday, 8:00 p.m. (FOX)

Both Arizona and Kansas State were successful teams a year ago, and both have started 2-0 in 2024. So why are we looking at such an awkward 7.5-point line in their head-to-head contest for Friday night? For me, it comes down to a few factors. The Wildcats are transitioning into a new era under head coach Brent Brennan and have gotten two less-than-impressive wins over overmatched foes. This is also their first-ever Big 12 game, and it comes on the road in a primetime contest at one of the league’s most difficult environments. As a program, they have generally struggled on the road, 16-26 ATS since 2016.

Kansas State is off a very underrated win at Tulane and overall boasts one of the country’s best point spread records in recent memory, 40-23-2 since 2019. This is also a ranked vs. ranked spot, and last year, we were very successful in following home teams in specific matchups based upon some criteria: In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 170-85 SU and 145-102-8 ATS (58.7%). Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 102-18 SU & 75-41-4 ATS (64.7%). Finally, adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 53-15 SU and 46-19-3 ATS (70.8%) since 2017.

Week 3 college football best bet: I’ll take Kansas State -7.5 but wouldn’t mind buying it down to 7

Cincinnati at Miami (OH)

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

Is the right team favored in the Cincinnati-Miami (OH) contest on Saturday? I can see why it would be unreasonable for a MAC team to be favored over a Big 12 team, but sometimes tough decisions have to be made. By all rights, the Redhawks can stake claim to being the better team in this matchup. They won the head-to-head meeting last year 31-24 and went on to an 11-3 season. They also brought back 12 starters from that team. The defense allowed just 15.9 PPG in 2023.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, was 3-9 last year, and a huge percentage of the betting public at DraftKings is backing the Bearcats. Apparently, they haven’t been exposed to these two different revenge angles associated with this game. First, Cincinnati is 8-12 SU and 6-14 ATS in revenge mode since 2016. Second, teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 102-116 ATS (46.8%) since 2016. This looks like a huge point-proving game for Miami (OH), and with underdogs on an 8-2 ATS run in the head-to-head series, I’ll lean that way.

Week 3 college football best bet: I like Miami (OH) +3.5 points

Boston College at Missouri

Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET (SECN)

Crediting my guy Doug Upstone of Gambler’s World, Missouri is favored this week by 15-plus points against a ranked team for the first time in 30 years. My concern…Missouri’s offense last week did not look the part against what should have been an overmatched Buffalo team. It took a rather cheap late score for the Tigers to cover that point spread (thankfully), but it doesn’t leave me comfortable in their chances of covering this big number against a Boston College team that is gaining confidence quickly under new head coach Bill O’Brien. The Golden Eagles are 2-0 SU and ATS, having outscored their first two opponents 84-13. So why is this number so big?

Mizzou was expected to be one of the top teams in the country this year, bringing back a lot of talented experience from last year’s 11-win team. However, in two games against very weak opponents, this juggernaut offense is averaging fewer yards per play (6.4 to 6.5) than it did after going through an entire SEC slate last year. At the same time, BC, in O’Brien’s new offense, is averaging a phenomenal 12.5 yards per pass attempt. This is a team that is clicking offensively, and that is exactly what I like in an underdog.

Week 3 college football best bet: Let’s go with Boston College +16.5 at Missouri

Texas A&M at Florida

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)

This game could rightfully be renamed the desperation bowl, as both teams suffered devastating losses in statement games in Week 1 and another such loss here might wipe them out for the season. Never mind that both teams rebounded to beat FCS opponents; it is the big-time game that these programs need to win, here and now. Head coach Billy Napier’s team was without starting QB Graham Mertz in its 45-7 win over Samford last week, but supposedly, Mertz is healthy and will be given the nod once again for this contest. It was the Miami loss in the opener that has fans concerned, as Florida was also a home dog in that contest and was trounced 41-17.

However, the Aggies have their own problems, sitting at 0-2 ATS and with a blemish on the won-lost log to a Notre Dame team that last week lost to Northern Illinois. The luster of that opening week game has certainly faded as a result, leaving even more question marks facing head coach Mike Elko’s team. For what it’s worth, underdogs have won outright and ATS in all three games these teams have played as SEC foes since 2017. Also, with DK bettors firmly behind A&M, when the majority of the DK handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 164-190 ATS.

Week 3 college football best bet: I got Florida +3.5 with a great chance at an upset

Washington State vs. Washington

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (PEACOCK)

Washington was another fade winner on our stability system last week, as the Huskies struggled to get rid of a pesky Eastern Michigan team in a 30-9 decision. Those are exactly the types of scores that build this system’s success. On the surface, it looks like Washington won comfortably, and at 2-0 now, there probably isn’t a lot of concern about new head coach Jedd Fisch and his team’s instability. Could this be the week it catches up to the Huskies? The matchup looks tough, and the game is being played at the Seahawks field.

Washington State has looked fantastic in its first two games of 2024, routing both Portland State and Texas Tech by a combined 107-46 margin. The Cougars have gained an extremely potent and balanced 526.5 YPG on offense, split nearly equally on the ground and through the air. WaSU (+14.5) also gave Washington one of its toughest games of the season a year ago, losing 24-21 but outgaining the Huskies 381-306 on the day. Surely with all that has happened in the last year with these programs’ conference alignments, head coach Jake Dickert’s Cougars will be anxious to prove something in this huge rivalry tilt and is capable of doing so.

Week 3 college football best bet: I’m taking Washington State here as the +5-point dog

Oregon at Oregon State

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

I just detailed the other huge West Coast rivalry game pitting former conference foes against one another. Well, the annual renewal of the once-titled “Civil War” is on tap for Saturday in Oregon, and the visiting Ducks are looking for a big effort to kick into gear after what has been an unexpectedly slow start to the season. They are still 2-0 at this point, but there’s no way we have seen the best from QB Dillon Gabriel & Co. In fact, they have failed to cover the point spread in their first two contests by 39.5 and 14.5 points. That is some serious underperformance.

Perhaps a game against an arch-rival in which they enjoy a huge stability edge will be just what the doctor ordered. OSU is also 2-0 and has allowed just 7.5 PPG after a shutout of San Diego State, but neither of the offenses the Beavers have faced to date match the explosive potential of Oregon. Of note, however, the Ducks haven’t won in Corvallis since 2018, and the hosts are on a 4-0 SU and ATS streak in the rivalry. I see that streak coming to a resounding end as head coach Dan Lanning’s team finally earns some national respect here.

Week 3 college football best bet: I’m laying the 16.5-points with Oregon

West Virginia at Pittsburgh

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

West Virginia was a darling of many preseason prognosticators as a team with the potential to make some noise in the Big 12 this season. A lot of the anticipation was squelched in the season-opening loss to Penn State, as the Nittany Lions really looked like a different-level team that day. The Big 12 schedule starts next week for head coach Neal Brown’s team, and to put it mildly, the first five conference tilts are tough, so much so that it makes this Backyard Brawl contest an almost must-win. Are the Mountaineers capable of winning such a game? Well, if you buy into the preseason hype, and believe that a returning 9-4 team with 13 starters back has the stuff to take care of business, then yes is the answer. Pitt is off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start and is at home, but my power rating number says this line is still 2 points underpriced.

Week 3 college football best bet: I’m willing to take West Virginia as the 2.5-point road favorite

Notre Dame at Purdue

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Which Notre Dame team is the real one: the team that we will be betting on or against the rest of the season? Is it the one that went into College Station and pulled one of Week 1’s biggest wins, or is it the one that succumbed to Northern Illinois as a 28-point favorite last week? In truth, it’s probably somewhere in between, but also, in truth, there are massive concerns with this offense and transfer QB Riley Leonard. So far, the Irish have gained just 160.5 YPG through the air and just 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Last year, both of those numbers were 150% better with Sam Hartmann. This is not the Notre Dame offense of last year, and hence, not a team that I want to be laying points with.

They also face a very strong system that says it isn’t unusual for teams off such bad losses to continue to flounder: Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5-points or more have gone just 38-66 SU & 35-65-4 ATS (35%) in the follow-up contest since 2012. As it is, most teams have already saved their best efforts for Notre Dame; in this case, Purdue has the motivation to go with it. The Boilermakers are on a 16-9 ATS run as underdogs as well, so they are used to competing in this role.

Week 3 college football best bet: Let’s take the 10-points with Purdue

Troy at Iowa

Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET (FS1)

A 2-0 start for Iowa looked all but certain in the final minutes in Iowa City this past Saturday before the Hawkeyes allowed a couple of big pass plays and a long field goal to succumb to Iowa State. For all the heartbreak that loss brought on, the Hawkeyes have a great chance to regroup against a rebuilding Troy team that has lost its first two games of the season and looks every bit the part of a ZERO stability score squad for new head coach Gerad Parker. The biggest concern for the Trojans will be matching up physically with head coach Kirk Ferentz’s team. They have allowed 212.5 RYPG and 6.5 YPR in those two losses.

Meanwhile, Iowa is gaining 222.5 YPG on the ground thus far and is stuffing opponent ground games as usual. The offense of the Hawkeyes, the season’s biggest concern, has also put up 29.5 PPG already. Of note, Ferentz’s team is 6-2 as a favorite of 20+ points since 2018 despite the widely known offensive struggles. For what it’s worth, this is week 3’s biggest stability score disparity, with an edge of 15. Last week’s biggest was 18, and Texas clobbered Michigan. Hard to see Troy scoring more than 10 points.

Week 3 college football best bet: I’ll lay the 22.5 points with Iowa at home

UTEP at Liberty

Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

Liberty was a big disappointment last week for our stability system, eventually winning 30-24 at New Mexico State but coming nowhere close to covering the 22-point chalk spread assigned. The Flames (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) will face a similar line this week but against what looks to be a much weaker opponent in UTEP. The Miners are off a 27-24 loss to FCS Southern Utah after getting blasted by Nebraska in the opener. New head coach Scotty Walden’s team was expected to struggle as they brought back just nine starters from last year’s 3-9 season.

However, losing to the lone FCS foe makes matching that 3-win mark in 2024 all the more tough. The Miners have scored just 15.5 PPG thus far, and it will be a challenge for them to keep up with a Liberty team that has gained 503 YPG in its first two outings. Head coach Jamey Chadwell is undefeated in nine home games while with the Flames, putting up 41.4 PPG in the process. This might be the best offense that hasn’t covered a point spread yet.

Week 3 college football best bet: Let’s lay the 23-points with Liberty

Florida Atlantic at Florida International

Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

Are we to believe that FIU has turned a corner now after last week’s 52-16 win over Central Michigan? It’s been a struggle for this program, currently on a 5-year sub-.500 losing skid. I guess before getting too far ahead on what’s left for the Panthers the rest of the season, for this week, have they gained enough ground on rival FAU to think they can pull the upset at home. It would end a 6-game losing skid in head-to-head play. My short answer is no. The last time these teams played, FIU was a 14.5-point dog; the fourth straight time, they were a double-digit dog in the series. The Owls have actually gotten up for this rivalry and have flexed their muscles, beating the point spread in this current 6-0 SU and ATS streak by 22.3 PPG! This is still American versus Conference USA, and FAU remains motivated by beating its rival for Miami-area supremacy. It has also played two tougher opponents to date.

Week 3 college football best bet: Let’s take FAU again as the 5-point favorite

Ole Miss at Wake Forest

Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CW)

Wake Forest hasn’t been this big of a home underdog since 2020, when it lost 37-13 to Clemson as a 34.5-point dog. Is it warranted, or are the Demon Deacons going to be a live dog for Saturday against Ole Miss. I lean to the latter, as the Rebels, though off to a great start, outscoring two opponents 128-3 in the first two weeks. Let’s be honest, though, Furman and Middle Tennessee State don’t present the same level of challenge that a prideful ACC team will on its home field. Wake Forest is also a far more capable team offensively, scoring 75 points of its own in the first two games. You need underdogs to be able to score in matchups like this. Think about it: if head coach Dave Clawson’s team can put up 20 points, which is a very realistic total, the Rebels would need 44 to cover. Wake has only allowed that many points in Winston-Salem once in the L28 games. The Demon Deacons are on a 4-2 ATS run as home dogs. I’d be surprised to see this game be as big of a rout as odds makers project.

Week 3 college football best bet: Take the +23.5-points with Wake Forest

South Florida at Southern Miss

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

South Florida unraveled in the fourth quarter at Alabama last Saturday but otherwise played a terrific game, putting a scare into the Tide for three quarters. The 42-16 final score doesn’t do justice to how competitive the Bulls were in getting us another win for this system. Now, USF plays on the opposite end of the line spectrum, installed as a double-digit favorite at Southern Miss. Head coach Alex Golesh’s team was one of the most experienced starting lineups coming back for 2024 in the country, and they haven’t disappointed bettors yet, boasting a 2-0 ATS mark so far. They have also rushed for 218.5 YPG in the first two outings, 153.5 yards more than the Golden Eagles have, a massive advantage.

Much of that edge comes from the threat brought by QB Byrum Brown, who beats teams with both his legs and his arm. USM is off a 35-10 win over SE Louisiana but was tagged 31-0 by Kentucky a week earlier. The Wildcats then went on to lose 31-6 to South Carolina, leaving the jury still out on their 2024 strength. Don’t be swayed by the final quarter last week in Tuscaloosa. There’s a reason this line is as big as it is.

Week 3 college football best bet: I’m behind USF -11.5 here

New Mexico at Auburn

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Sometimes a team’s bad underperformance in one week leads to value the next, at least I hope that is the case with Auburn on Saturday, as the Tigers come off a home stinker versus Cal, a game they lost 21-14 as 12-point favorites. That came just a week after scoring 73 points, perhaps leading to false confidence that head coach Hugh Freeze had this program completely turned around.

They have a fantastic chance to bounce back this week at Jordan-Hare Stadium against a New Mexico team that has a stability score of 1 for new head coach Bronco Mendenhall. His team already has more ATS wins than stability points; however, they are 2-0 ATS in the first two contests. They did give up 61 points to Arizona in a scratch cover last week and have allowed nearly 600 YPG so far. I can imagine QB Peyton Thorne and the rest of the Auburn offensive attack are excited for this one. With the SEC opener on deck, Freeze’s team needs to build some positive momentum here. Expect big offensive outbursts and a cover for the Tigers.

Week 3 college football best bet: Lay the 28-points with Auburn

Air Force at Baylor

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

Just how bad do oddsmakers think Air Force is? Because this line looks way too high for a matchup of teams in which the underdog won six more games last season. Quite frankly, Baylor didn’t look good last week at Utah, and I was fortunate to get a Best Bet win with the Bears when Cam Rising went out in the second quarter after a red-hot start. Admittedly, I didn’t exactly deserve the back door cover.

Here, head coach Dave Aranda’s team is expected to cover a 15.5-point line against an Air Force team that has only allowed 23 points and 264.5 YPG in the first two outings. With just two offensive starters back, the Falcons were not expected to be as good as they have been in recent years, but in my opinion, this is a system offense, not one built by unique playmakers. I expect the ground attack to get going one of these weeks. This looks like a good time for it, especially with head coach Troy Calhoun’s team boasting a 19-10-1 ATS record as a dog and a 28-17 ATS mark in non-conference play since 2014.

Week 3 college football best bet: I’ll take the +15.5 points with Air Force

Georgia at Kentucky

Saturday, 7:30 pm. ET (ABC)

The underdog teams that can compete with the nation’s elite teams typically go into those games with a lot of confidence and are galvanized. I don’t see how Kentucky can even think of upsetting Georgia at this point, much less beating this sizeable point spread after what we’ve seen from their offense so far. The Wildcats mustered just 6 points in their SEC opener versus South Carolina last week.

We knew it would be a problem replacing Devin Leary this year, but to post the lowest home point total since hosting this same Georgia team in 2022 was not on my bingo card. At the same time, the Bulldogs went easy on Tennessee Tech after blasting Clemson in the opener, and they’ve now scored 76 points in their last three halves. The motivation will certainly be back for the SEC opener as well. There aren’t many chances each year that I feel the nation’s best team has value in their line. This is one of those times.

Week 3 college football best bet: I’m laying the 24-points with Georgia

Kent State at Tennessee

Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET (SECN)

This is probably not a game you’re going to want to watch if you bet it. In fact, I’m just gonna put it in and check the final. In any case, there have only been two games since the start of the 2020 season in which an FBS vs. FBS matchup has had this big of a line. Those favorites were Alabama and Michigan. Alabama easily covered, but Michigan didn’t. Tennessee has looked good in the first two weeks, obviously, but have they looked THIS good? With a QB that has only three starts to his name, the Vols are already nearly 50-point favorites?

Kent State has 41 points on the season and was a 17.5-point favorite last week. The huge line differential from last week sets up a nice system as well: CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 93-62 ATS (60%). On top of that, Tennessee could easily suffer from lookahead with a game at Oklahoma next week.

Week 3 college football best bet: I’m taking the +49 with Kent State

BYU at Wyoming

Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET (CBSN)

I have mentioned that teams with little stability heading into a season most often underperform. Sometimes it is consistent and lasts all season, sometimes it’s just early, sometimes it can get downright ugly. I’m not sure any team has played two worse games than rebuilding Wyoming so far has for new Head coach Jay Sawvel. It wasn’t even expected to be a rough transition either, as the Cowboys brought back 13 starters from last year’s 9-4 team. However, they have already lost two games, a blowout at Arizona State and a home contest to FCS Idaho.

It gets a lot tougher this week, too, against a BYU team that has posted two impressive wins to open 2024, most recently an 18-15 upset win at SMU as a 12.5-point underdog. The Cougars also face a daunting Big 12 schedule after this one, so they need to continue that hot start. Of note, BYU has beaten Wyoming nine straight times in head-to-head play, including three in a row SU and ATS in Laramie by a combined score of 122-31.

Week 3 college football best bet: Lay the 11-points with BYU

San Diego State at California

Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Cal might be a team to watch this season as it transfers to the ACC for 2024. Flying well below the radar, the Golden Bears went into Auburn last week and won 21-14 as 12-point underdogs. That kind of win can boost the confidence of any team, but when that team has 14 starters back from its first bowl team in four years, the benefit figures to be even greater. Head coach Justin Wilcox could have an unexpected star in the making in QB Fernando Mendoza, who has seemingly taken off with the experience he gained last year. He was very sharp at Auburn last week.

The opponent on Saturday in Berkeley is a San Diego State team that has opened up its shiny new stadium this season by losing both games ATS. The Aztecs were shut out by Oregon State last week, a team that had its own set of question marks for 2024. New SDSU head coach Sean Lewis had some huge offenses at Colorado and Kent State, but this Aztecs team mustered just 7 first downs and 179 yards against the Beavers. Cal’s defense looked very strong against a much more potent Auburn offense last week, making this week’s matchup a challenge for Lewis. I can see a 31-10 type of game.

Week 3 college football best bet: I’m laying the 19-points with Cal

For more College Football Week 3 predictions, visit the College Football Week 3 Hub at VSiN.com.

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