I might go so far as to say that Week 3 is my favorite week of the college football season from a betting standpoint. One game could be viewed as an outlier and not create too much of an adjustment. But, two games sure seems to say a whole lot more in the minds of investors and also those on the other side of the counter. It is still a high-variance world out there since we don’t really know who these teams are just yet, but conclusions are being formed, power ratings are being altered, and emotions are running high.
It is a good exercise to check the openers and where they went, even if you aren’t equipped to bet into them that early in the process. But, that’s especially true when you think about games early in the season. The sportsbooks won’t always be right and the sharps won’t always be right, but if you can examine all the factors and trust in your own set of numbers or your own process, you can take strike while the iron remains hot and plugged in.
Week 3 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, September 13 at 9:00 p.m. ET
Houston at Texas Tech (-8.5, 53.5)
Friday, 8 p.m. ET
Houston was a popular team among savvy bettors over the summer, as many felt like Willie Fritz’s squad had the goods to make a run in the Big 12. I’d say we’ll find out pretty quickly, as this marquee matchup on Friday night is a good one to have in primetime. Given that Miami will probably have blown out Wake Forest by halftime, we’ll get a ton of eyes on this one. Texas Tech opened -10 at Circa on Sunday morning, but had moved down to 8.5 by the evening. Some books were even dealing -8. Texas Tech hasn’t really looked the part through two games and it does feel like they’re missing some of last season’s star power, particularly on defense.
Arizona State (-5.5, 52.5) vs. Kansas (London)
Saturday, Noon ET
This game is at Wembley Stadium in London. Kind of a weird pairing to go across the pond, but it is certainly a game with a lot of intrigue for that reason and others. We just saw Kansas in the Friday night spotlight and it didn’t go well for them, as Missouri put it on them in the second half to blow open a 38-21 win. Meanwhile, Arizona State failed their first test of the season in College Station with a 48-20 loss, but a game that was just one of many on Saturday. I do feel as though the sportsbooks have a plan in mind when opening a game 4.5 to 6.5 and that’s to let bettors fight it out and see where the right number is. In this case, Circa opened 4.5 and moved to 5.5, where the line sat across the market as of Sunday night.
North Carolina at Clemson (-3, 44.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
I would argue that no team in college football has hurt their perception as much as the Clemson Tigers. Getting obliterated by LSU and then never really sniffing a cover against Georgia Southern can’t have many feeling confident about Dabo Swinney and the boys moving forward. I think that’s pretty evident here. UNC was a laughingstock last season and over the summer, but they’re a very small underdog to the Tigers. How small? Circa opened this line 3.5 and it was 3 by the evening, with other shops hovering around the key number with varying vig. Over the last five meetings, Clemson has been favored by 15.5, 7.5, 7, 26.5, and 6 per the KillerSports database dating back to 2015. How the mighty have fallen.
North Texas at Texas State (-2.5, 63.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
I sense that bettors are running out of patience with GJ Kinne at Texas State. Viewed as an offensive genius, he’s put together a pretty pedestrian record and QB Brad Jackson has not looked very good in his first two games this season. Meanwhile, North Texas just smashed their low expectation in Week 2 by throttling UNLV as a home underdog. That’s a line that saw some Mean Green money and it looks like bettors are going back to the well early in the week. The 3s that were out there on this game are gone, as Circa even opened 3.5 and got told pretty quickly what that opening number was like.
SMU at Louisville (-1.5, 59.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
If your Saturday hinges on what Jeff Brohm is going to do, you must be on a steady dose of Prozac. Brohm has a knack for losing as a favorite, but also has a knack for stepping up in these pick ‘em/underdog types of roles. Here, his Cardinals are favored, but SMU is trending towards possibly becoming the favorite as the week rolls along. I don’t know if we’ll get there or not, as Circa opened 2 and others flashed as high as 2.5, but perhaps the context of opening up below a field goal was a bit of a tell that the expectation was for SMU money and that avoiding +3 for the early crowd was a goal.
Stanford at Duke (-9.5, 51.5)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
This is a fascinating handicap and a game that merits some attention from a betting standpoint. We are all aware that teams with long travel in the power conferences have had issues, even since realignment had teams flying from coast to coast in conference play. It’s not really a secret and there’s probably some extra HFA built in. But, here we are with Stanford coming off of 10 and 10.5 early in the week against a Duke team that just upset Illinois last week. While not a heavy move, and maybe one simply orchestrated by one or two groups, it is the kind of line move that a seasoned market-watcher filed away very quickly.
Florida (-2.5, 52.5) at Auburn
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
Which sportsbooks will take the first plunge to -3? It’s going to happen – it’s just a matter of when. Even though the Gators took it to Campbell last week, the vibes are reportedly very different in Gainesville these days and Jon Sumrall’s crew has scored 118 points in two games. Auburn’s non-cover against Baylor is what people remember about the Tigers, not the 43-8 drubbing that they put on Southern Miss. The hype surrounding Florida and Sumrall is higher than that of the hype around Auburn and Alex Golesh and I think that sentiment permeates this line for a while. What will be fascinating to follow is if we get some Auburn buyback later in the week, which is likely to be quite sharp in nature.
West Virginia vs. Virginia (-10, 54.5) (Charlotte)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
We’ll call this a neutral-site game, though it is easier to get from Charlottesville to Charlotte for the Cavaliers and their fans. Also, this is a chance to go into Bank of America Stadium and right the wrong that transpired last December when the Hoos lost to Duke in overtime and cost themselves a College Football Playoff appearance. On the WVU side, bettors are thinking long and hard about the Mountaineers’ near collapse against Coastal Carolina last week. Circa opened 8 on this one and moved out to 10.5, content to sit there until somebody arrived looking to bet on Rich Rod and the Men of Morgantown.
LSU (-3, 58.5) at Ole Miss
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
College Gameday will be in The Grove here, as Ole Miss looks to exact revenge on Lane Kiffin. As I was telling a buddy on Sunday, God help Kiffin’s security detail if the Rebel faithful get to storm the field. Sports can be a soap opera and college football is one that does great ratings. The chief protagonist may very well be Kiffin and this game is just dripping with hatred and the possibility for some serious fireworks. I can’t wait to watch it. As far as betting on the game goes, I don’t see myself doing that, but LSU was the more popular side early on, as beating Clemson by 40 points is usually going to stick with people for a while.
James Madison at San Diego State (-2.5, 46.5)
Saturday, 10 p.m. ET
Even though I love what LSU/Ole Miss has to offer, games like this are more my speed. San Diego State opened a pick ‘em against James Madison at Circa. By evening, the Aztecs were installed as a clear favorite in the game, though that could change as we go throughout the week. The travel for JMU is a huge deal, along with the late kickoff, but what stands out to me is that UCLA took money last week against San Diego State. That money was validated. We didn’t learn much about SDSU against Portland State, but it didn’t feel like the Aztecs were a popular pick in the new Pac-12. The Dukes just dropped 87 points on Wagner, but that was after they barely covered against a Liberty team that nearly lost to Gardner-Webb last week. So far, it’s a pro-SDSU market. Will it stay that way? I’m not sure, but I’m excited to find out.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
