30 Top NFL Team Betting Trends for the 2026 Season:
A couple of weeks ago, I shared a top trends piece for the college football season, detailing 87 different team tendencies for 60 different teams that bettors should be aware of as they navigate the 2026 season. I’m here to do the same now for the NFL, as I’ve personally picked out 30 of the top situational team tendencies that are almost assured to arise in 2026. These angles cover 18 different teams, and you should be ready to strike when opportunities arise. These trends are just a mere fraction of what we offer in our weekly VSiN NFL Analytics Reports. No serious bettor should build their weekly betting card without consulting.
You will see that along with the teams and trends, I’ve offered up my own thoughts on the trend(s) as well as the potential game(s) in which the trends could be in play.
I will personally bookmark these on a weekly betting calendar, and I would suggest you do the same to see if they continue into 2026.
If you missed any of my NFL preseason prep work, be sure to download the VSiN Pro Betting Guide(s), or visit VSiN.com and browse to my AUTHOR PAGE. Enjoy the trends; hopefully they help you spot some winning plays this season. They are sorted by team name.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
* ARIZONA is 11-20 SU and 22-9 ATS (71.0%) as an underdog of +3.5 to +6.5 points since 2018
Steve’s thoughts: The Cardinals are often an underdog. Their best spots for bettors, in a line range they are often overlooked, are when they are underdogs of +3.5 to +6.5 points. This is a mid-level line spot, and most bettors don’t like taking dogs they don’t think can win games when they are priced in this range. Obviously, covering and winning are two different tasks for Arizona.
Potential spots for 2026: There are at least a couple of spots where I can see Arizona slipping into this line spot in 2026, the first coming on the road against the Giants on 10/4.
ATLANTA FALCONS
* ATLANTA is 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS (0.0%) when coming off a double-digit win since 2020
Steve’s thoughts: Talk about not being able to handle success. After some of their best wins of recent years, the Falcons have laid eggs in their next outings. Stringing good performances together will be one of the primary goals of new head coach Kevin Stefanski and his staff.
Potential spots for 2026: While it is never easy to predict spots where teams might win by double-digit margins in the NFL, the Falcons do figure to be favored in Week 2 at home versus Carolina. A good performance there would set them up in a miserable spot at Green Bay in Week 3.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
* CAROLINA is 0-10 SU and ATS (0.0%) as a favorite of -1 to -3 points since 2021, but 21-8 SU and 23-5 ATS (82.1%) as an underdog of +1 to +3 points since 2017
Steve’s thoughts: Completely polar opposite trends here for the Panthers of late, as they simply don’t play up to expectations. When expected to win, they struggle; when expected to lose, they are competitive. Until something changes, bet accordingly.
Potential spots for 2026: There is already a home underdog spot to the Bears in Week 1 versus Chicago, and an expected road dog spot in Atlanta as a follow-up game. Add to more projected spreads of +2.5 and +3 in Weeks 3 and 4. If trends hold up, does this mean we’re looking at a 4-0 start for the defending NFC South champs? Stranger things have happened.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
* CINCINNATI is 18-3 SU and 17-4 ATS (81.0%) as a favorite of -3.5 to -6.5 points since 2019. They are 6-11 SU and 15-3 ATS (83.3%) as an underdog of +3.5 to +6.5 points since 2020
Steve’s thoughts: This is a very strange dichotomy and basically suggests that we should back the Bengals at any point where they are playing in mid-range lined games. I personally tend to separate close favorites as those of 3 points or fewer and big favorites as those laying a TD or more. So this line range is significant mentally.
Potential spots for 2026: Cincinnati is already a favorite of -3.5 versus Tampa Bay in Week 1 and should be an underdog in the +3.5 to +6.5 range on 10/25 at Baltimore. Surely there will be other spots along the way this season to take advantage of a couple of crazy angles.
DETROIT LIONS
* DETROIT is 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS (85.7%) as a favorite of -3.5 to -6.5 points since 2020
* DETROIT is 8-5 SU and 12-1 ATS (92.3%) when coming off a double-digit loss since 2021
* DETROIT is 14-1 Over the total (93.3%) when coming off a close win of 3 points or fewer since 2019
Steve’s thoughts: The Lions have been a definitive tendency team ever since head coach Dan Campbell arrived. For that matter, they have been one of the league’s best covering teams in his tenure. These are two of their best ATS spots, as mid-range favorites and when coming off bad losses, of which there haven’t been many lately. The 14-1 Over trend doesn’t seem like it’s based on any type of solid foundation, but 14-1 is hard to argue with.
Potential spots for 2026: Again, predicting close wins or double-digit losses isn’t easy in the NFL; you just have to stay on top of each team’s season logs, something easy to do if you have VSiN at your fingertips. That said, Detroit is a 7-point favorite versus New Orleans in Week 1, so the chalk angle might not apply that early, but I could easily see the Lions being favored in the mid-level line range in their back-to-back divisional home games versus Green Bay and Minnesota in Games 6 and 7.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
* INDIANAPOLIS is 2-14 SU and ATS (12.5%) when coming off close losses of 3 points or less since 2018
Steve’s thoughts: When you only play 17 games and are usually in tight divisional races, close losses can be devastating. The ability to bounce back can often separate playoff teams from non-playoff teams. The Colts haven’t played a playoff game since 2021.
Potential spots for 2026: There are a number of close point spread games projected in the first half of the season for the Colts, any of which could wind up with them losing heartbreakers. Watch closely.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
* KANSAS CITY is 12-5 SU but 3-13 ATS (18.8%) coming off a game having scored 30 or more points since 2022
* KANSAS CITY is 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS (85.7%) as a road underdog since 2018
* KANSAS CITY is 26-8 Under the total (76.5%) as a home favorite since 2022
Steve’s thoughts: The Chiefs are another NFL team that has displayed very definitive tendencies in recent years. Last season, some of those changed a bit as the team struggled. Now, with expectations on the rise again after the return of QB Patrick Mahomes, we’ll see some of these trends tested again. Specifically, watch for high-scoring outputs from KC, as they tend to get overpriced afterward.
Potential spots for 2026: The Chiefs are already a home favorite for Monday night versus Denver, so be aware of that Under trend. The first time I can see them being a road dog would be in Games 6 and/or 7, when they travel to Seattle and Denver.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
* LA CHARGERS are 19-5 Under the total (79.2%) in September games since 2019
* LA CHARGERS are 9-3 SU and 10-1 ATS (90.9%) in divisional games over the last two seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Since Justin Herbert arrived on the scene back in 2020, there has always been this expectation that the Chargers can or will be an explosive offensive team. They have been in spurts, but typically they have leaned on their running game and defense early in the season. The average score of those 24 September games in that trend was 21.2-20.1 on totals averaging 46.4. Oddsmakers simply haven’t gauged this team accurately. However, a big reason the Chargers have been a postseason in each of the last two seasons has been because of their strong divisional performance.
Potential spots for 2026: Three September games offer a chance to take advantage of this Undertrend, starting this week against Arizona. The first of the six divisional contests is in Week 2 at home against the Raiders.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
* LA RAMS are 17-5 SU and 18-4 ATS (81.8%) in December games since 2021
* LA RAMS are 27-10 Under the total (73.0%) as home favorites since 2020
* LA RAMS are 14-1 Over the total (93.3%) vs. elite defenses allowing <=19 PPG over the last three seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have perennially become one of the best teams in the league down the stretch, and it becomes a difficult task for divisional opponents to keep pace once the calendar turns to December. McVay also seems to take on the challenge when facing tough defenses, but relies on his own defense & running game when taking on overmatched opponents in home games.
Potential spots for 2026: The Rams should be favored in every home game they play this season. Keep an eye on the four December games as LA is home for the Chiefs and Cowboys, and on the road at San Francisco and Seattle. We’ll see if any of their opponents meet the elite defense criteria, though they do have teams like Denver, Philadelphia, Kansas City, and, of course, Seattle (2x) on the 2026 slate.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
* MINNESOTA is 16-3 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) after having won its last two games outright over the last three seasons
* MINNESOTA is 14-1 SU and 10-2 ATS (83.3%) as a road favorite since 2022
Steve’s thoughts: Under head coach Kevin O’Connell, it seems like when the Vikings get hot, they get really hot, as they have proven capable of stringing together long winning streaks in his tenure. They’ve also fared quite well in the road chalk role, a rare trait for any NFL team, and this probably has a lot to do with being able to string wins together.
Potential spots for 2026: At this point, the only game that I show the Vikings being favored in on the road is in January at the Jets. It is a good bet, however, that at some point, this Minnesota team will win back-to-back games. If that happens, be ready to pounce right afterward.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
* NEW ENGLAND is 28-3 SU and 25-6 ATS (80.6%) as a double-digit favorite since 2015
Steve’s thoughts: My thoughts on this trend changed a bit after watching QB Drake Maye and the New England offense struggle in the season-opening loss at Seattle. However, if the Patriots do regain the stride they had last year in winning the AFC title, there’s a very good chance they will find themselves as double-digit favorites along the way. They have been one of the few franchises in the league that thrive in both winning and covering in that scenario.
Potential spots for 2026: Naturally, you think of the Jets and Dolphins home games as potential spots where New England might be favored by 10+, but the Patriots also host the Raiders in October in what will be a revenge game for a season-opening loss last year.
NEW YORK GIANTS
* NY GIANTS are 17-3-1 Under the total (85%) as an underdog of +1 to +3 points since 2021
Steve’s thoughts: Most bettors tend to avoid teams like the Giants in the small underdog role because they don’t win that many games outright, and in truth, these bettors have thrived, particularly recently, as New York is just 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in such games since 2023. Much of the reason there are so many Unders in games of this type is that New York’s offense has mustered just 16.3 PPG in these 21 contests.
Potential spots for 2026: This trend will be tested already this Sunday, as the Giants host Dallas on SNF. Will it be another in a string of dreadful offensive performances from New York, or can they keep this trend extended by playing well defensively? In any case, this trend should come up a few times in 2026.
NEW YORK JETS
* NY JETS are 3-24 SU and 6-21 ATS (22.2%) vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG since 2018
Steve’s thoughts: I don’t think this one needs much explanation, as the Jets and their horrible offenses of late simply haven’t been able to keep up with the explosive offenses they’ve faced. Can new QB Geno Smith and the retooled offense get beyond this ineptitude in 2026?
Potential spots for 2026: We know Buffalo will probably score a lot of points this season, and the Jets face them twice, but New York already faces Green Bay in Week 2, and this trend will be active should the Packers score 27+ on Minnesota on Sunday.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
* PITTSBURGH is 31-10 Under the total (24.4%) as a road favorite since 2015
Steve’s thoughts: For the most part, whenever Pittsburgh was a road favorite in the head coach Mike Tomlin era, it was because its defense could smother the opposing offense, and its running game took over late. Even though new coach Mike McCarthy has reteamed with QB Aaron Rodgers, the recipe for winning figures to stay the same in 2026.
Potential spots for 2026: There is a good chance that the Steelers could be favored at Cleveland in Week 4, as well as in their 16th game at Tennessee.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
* SAN FRANCISCO is 4-10 SU and 2-12 ATS (14.3%) vs. elite defenses yielding <=19 PPG over the last three seasons
Steve’s thoughts: For as much success as San Francisco has enjoyed recently, the Achilles’ heel has come against the league’s best defenses. This weakness reared its ugly head in the 49ers’ playoff loss at Seattle this past January, as they were walloped 41-6. In the 14 games of this trend, the usually high-powered offense of head coach Kyle Shanahan has averaged just 17.5 PPG.
Potential spots for 2026: While the Rams are expected to be an elite defense this year, they haven’t accumulated any stats yet, so this trend won’t be officially in play for the team’s season opener in Australia. However, theoretically, it might. Watch for tough spots this year for the 49ers against their chief divisional rivals as well as games against Denver, Philadelphia, and Kansas City.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
* SEATTLE is 18-6 SU and 18-5 ATS (78.3%) after having lost its last two games outright since 2015
Steve’s thoughts: To stay among the consistent playoff contending teams every year, franchises have to be able to snuff out brief losing skids before they spiral into lengthy ones. Seattle has been able to do that, and after losing starting QB Sam Darnold to injury on Wednesday night, it’s certainly not out of the question that the defending Super Bowl champs could suffer some defeats this season.
Potential spots for 2026: The Seahawks face some tough stretches to deal with this season on the schedule, particularly starting in October when they face the Chargers, 49ers, Broncos, Chiefs, and Bears consecutively.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
* TAMPA BAY is 7-10 SU & 2-14 ATS (12.5%), having lost their last three games ATS since 2019
Steve’s thoughts: Sometimes, when it rains, it pours. Tampa Bay has found itself trying to dig out of holes often over the last six seasons, and the Bucs have been known for stringing together streaks of underperformance. Just this past season, they lost their final nine games of the season against the spread!
Potential spots for 2026: This is hard to predict, as teams get a fresh slate each season, but if Tampa Bay starts struggling at any point, it could spiral out of control more than most other teams.
TENNESSEE TITANS
* TENNESSEE is 0-11 SU and ATS (0.0%) coming off an outright win over the last three seasons
* TENNESSEE is 2-16 SU and 3-15 ATS (16.7%) versus division opponents over the last three seasons
* TENNESSEE is 14-2 Over the total (87.5%) vs. winning teams over the last two seasons
Steve’s thoughts: The Titans have a number of brutal team trends that new head coach Robert Saleh will be trying to overcome, not the least of which is their inability to play well on Sundays. (Yes, that trend is true). However, they have been particularly bad against divisional foes and in trying to string back-to-back wins together. However, they have shown some spunk offensively when facing good teams, usually resulting in high-scoring contests.
Potential spots for 2026: Tennessee is actually favored in its Week 1 game at home versus the Jets, so there is a reasonable chance they could win and be facing the 0-11 angle already in Week 2 at home versus Philly. The first divisional game comes October 11th versus Houston.
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