NFL Odds Week 2
Welcome to Overreaction Week in the NFL! All of the talking heads and clickbaiters who have been dying to have some incendiary takes will be able to share them over the next few days. One game out of 17 that will be played will force people into making some bold (and stupid) takes. Teams that have no business being bought will see their stock prices rise, while we may be able to get some buy-low opportunities on teams that probably just had an off week.
There are some sportsbooks that post the entire NFL schedule before the season, but this is more of a true Opening Line Report here, as we did have some lookahead numbers at a lot of places, but now we have lines that better reflect what we saw in Week 1 and what the books saw as they collected all of their consumer data. Week 2 is one of my favorite weeks of the season and hopefully it lives up to the hype and the potential.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 2 NFL Odds Report:
Lions at Bills (-3, 51.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The opening of Highmark Stadium is just one of the big stories here, as we have two teams who could very well be left standing when we get to February 14. The Lions and Bills are Super Bowl contenders in the minds of many and this should be an excellent Thursday Night Football game. While the players and coaches really despise this quick turnaround, at least this game is early in the season and the two teams are pretty rested. The Bills were a field goal favorite on the lookahead numbers with a total in the low 50s. After Week 1 results were in, the line didn’t move much, with the Bills -3 with extra vig or -3.5 with reduced juice at the shops holding onto the hook.
Panthers at Falcons (-1.5, 44.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Week 1 was rather tumultuous for the Falcons, as Tua Tagovailoa got hurt during the week in practice, Cooper Rush dealt with back spasms heading into Sunday, and Michael Penix Jr. wasn’t ready to go yet. As a result, bettors gradually piled in on the Steelers and the sportsbooks kept inching the number forward. Meanwhile, Carolina hosted the Bears after a pretty uneventful week of practice and had 59 points dropped on them. It would not have been shocking to see the Panthers as a road favorite here, but giving up a million yards and almost 60 points kind of hurts the perception of your team.
Vikings at Bears (-5.5, 48.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Back-to-back division games to open up the season for the Vikings, who moved into favorites against the Packers as the summer went along and the start of the season drew near. Chicago remained a steady, albeit small, road favorite against the Panthers. Now they’re a home favorite with probably Carson Wentz and the Vikes heading down to the Windy City. There are a lot of people looking for some regression from the Bears, who won a lot of close games and had several comeback victories last season, plus a lot of turnover luck. They may catch a stroke of luck here if Kyler Murray, concussed in the win over the Packers, isn’t able to play. This was mostly -3 on the lookahead lines last week and actually started as high as 6.5 at DraftKings for this week.
Eagles (-7, 41) at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
This will be quite the measuring stick game for the new-look Titans and Robert Saleh. The Eagles took some money leading up to kickoff against the Commanders and failed to cover, but did get the outright win by holding strong on a game-tying two-point conversion attempt. Meanwhile, Saleh’s debut was a dud with a home loss in rather uncompetitive fashion to the Jets. That stinkbomb of a performance from the Titans pushed this line all the way out to -7, even though the lookahead markets had it lower than that.
Steelers at Patriots (-5.5, 43.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
One of the big talking points for the talking heads last week was Drake Maye’s performance against the Seahawks on Wednesday night. Maye has played very poorly against good teams and his last few data points have not inspired confidence. In this game, I guess the question for bettors will be “how good are the Steelers”? Last week did not provide a good view into how Pittsburgh is rated by the market because of the QB injuries for Atlanta, but we should get a good idea this week. The Patriots were -4.5 in the lookahead market and settled in at -5.5 now, as the Steelers had some troubles with the shorthanded Falcons.
Packers (-4.5, 43.5) at Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Packers didn’t have a lot of supporters last week, but I’m not sure that the Jets are going to have supporters any week this season. Green Bay was one of the biggest road favorites in the lookahead market and that line ticked down a little bit between the Packers’ total collapse against the Vikings and the Jets’ surprising 1-0 start. As of Sunday night, some of the 5.5s from last week were still sticking around, but most of the board showed 4.5. This should be one of the more interesting lines of the week to follow, as confidence in the Jets is still low, but money came in against the Packers last week and proved to be right.
Browns at Buccaneers (-8.5, 40.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Hell hath no fury like a Baker Mayfield scorned going up against his former team. Mayfield was objectively bad in the loss to the Bengals, but he’ll have a chance to redeem himself right away and stick it to the Browns, who were collectively bad from start to finish against the Jaguars. Jacksonville receivers ran wild and free and Deshaun Watson looked like the washed-up loser that he is. I’m not sure we would look at Jacksonville and Tampa Bay in their present states and say that they are a pick ‘em on a neutral field, which is what this line implies given that Jacksonville was primarily 8.5 and even 9 against Cleveland, but the Browns looked so inept that they surely moved down a couple points in everybody’s power ratings.
Saints at Ravens (-8.5, 48.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Jesse Minter’s head coaching debut was a success, as Declan Doyle’s offense lit up the scoreboard with a 41-23 win. This total was mostly 46.5 in the lookahead markets and it’s ticked up a couple of points, with what I would assume is more Over money to come. The Ravens played a 64-point game and the Saints played a 61-point game, falling a point short to the Lions, but easily covering the seven-point spread. It was a solid showing for the Saints, but the Ravens were maybe the most impressive of any Week 1 team and the line going from 7.5 to 8.5 isn’t significant from a key number standpoint, but I’ll be watching to see if we get to 9 as some teaser protection since Ravens -2.5 in a six-point teaser will be an auto play for most.
Bengals at Texans (-2.5, 47.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
I find this the best game of Week 2 and I’m not sure that it’s close. We all know what a healthy Joe Burrow is capable of and we also know how good the Houston defense is. That said, Joe Brady and the Bills were able to gash that Texans team for nearly eight yards per play. Given that we’re not at 3, nor have we moved closer to pick ‘em, it seems like neither team has gotten a bump or been punished for last week. That’s why I think this is the best game of Week 2. We’re going to make some bold statements about one of these two teams and I could see influential bettors making some as well. The main movement from the lookahead line here is that the total jumped a couple of points.
Raiders at Chargers (-7, 45.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
The quote incorrectly attributed to Albert Einstein regarding the definition of insanity does still seem applicable to the Chargers. A lot of people once again put their trust in this team to open the season and were badly burned, as LA’s loss to the Cardinals took out a pretty good chunk of Survivor players in Circa and otherwise. The Raiders should be better than the Cardinals long-term, but this is a line that fell from 9.5 or 9 to 7 across most of the market as Sunday’s late-game results came in. The Raiders held serve at home against the Dolphins and looked okay in the process, while the Chargers, who got bet against over the course of the week, validated those willing to side with Arizona.
Seahawks (-5.5, 42.5) at Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
What a difference a week makes in the NFL. The Sam Darnold injury paired with Arizona’s outright upset win over the Chargers easily made this the biggest line-mover based on Week 1 results. Seattle was lined up as a double-digit favorite in this NFC West affair, but Darnold has already been ruled out, so it will be the Drew Lock Variety Hour once again. But, I do think that this might be a bit of a cheap price on Seattle and that will likely be the sentiment, especially with some shops showing as low as 4.5 on Sunday night. The gap between Darnold and Lock is noticeable, but the Cardinals will be taken much more seriously by a team on extra rest and prep than they would have been had the Chargers and Cardinals played tighter to expectations.
Dolphins at 49ers (-13, 46.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
This was another notable mover based on what we saw in Week 1. The 49ers took it to the Rams down in Australia, sparking a major discussion about rest, sleep cycles, and time zone changes. The Dolphins were pretty comfortably beaten by a below-average Raiders team. This line was already double digits, but it went higher pretty quickly, as the 49ers were -10 or -10.5 in the lookahead markets and are now approaching two touchdowns. To be honest, between the extra rest and the 20-point win over the preseason Super Bowl favorites, I think we could get to 14, as the books see if any brave souls want to back Ray Finkle’s old team.
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