Week 3 College Football Power Ratings and Projections for Every Game

Week 3 College Football Power Ratings

IThe late, great Dave Sharapan loved to say “nobody knows sh*t” and that seems to be the case with college football at the outset of the season. Oklahoma State lost to Tulsa, only to pick up their biggest home win since Mike Gundy’s prime against Oregon. Tulsa beat Oklahoma State, only to follow that up with a one-score win over a very bad Sam Houston team. Utah State lost by double digits to Idaho State in Week 1 and then went to Washington and lost by two as a four-touchdown underdog. Michigan more or less lost to Western Michigan, only to upset a borderline top-10 Oklahoma team. Ohio State looked like a legitimate title contender for three quarters and then forgot how to play football in the fourth.

Like I’ve been saying, this is an extremely high-variance environment right now and we’re going to see these contrasting and disparate performances from teams week in and week out. There are still so many moving parts with so many players acquired via the transfer portal and new coaches that have to make adjustments to their own personnel groups while also game-planning for the opposition.

It makes it really hard to accurately rate these teams, especially those who have two extremely different data points. Also, we have some teams that have had very impressive performances, but they’ve done so against tomato cans and cupcakes. Or Jones Jr. High, as Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian put it.

The balance becomes believing in your numbers versus feeling like the market is more accurate than you are. In some cases, you’ll be right. In other cases, your number will be wrong and you’ll pay to find out that lesson. On the plus side, now that the NFL has arrived with all of the high-handle games that come with that market, we should still find some mistake lines and good betting opportunities on teams that fall through the cracks, especially the Group of Six teams. And especially those who have had two very, very different games.

In texting with Tyler Shoemaker over the weekend, we had a chat about how aggressively to adjust this week. On one hand, it makes sense, especially for teams that have looked bad twice. On the other hand, this week provided some cautionary tales on why it’s important not to read too much into one singular data point. Like I’ve said, it’s more science at the start and more art as the season goes along.

I’ve made a variety of adjustments for this week – some on teams that I moved down or up last week. Admittedly, there will be some teams this season that I simply never pin down. But, there will be others that I’ll have an excellent read on and either be right in line with the market or cash a ticket on a bad number.

As a reminder, my three-step process is to compare my line to the market consensus closing line, scan the box scores for notes, nuggets, and outliers, and then dig up as much injury info as I can find.

Week 3 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Notre Dame	92.5	3.5
2	Indiana	91.5	3.5
3	Ohio State	91.5	3.5
4	Miami (Florida)	91	3
5	Georgia	90.5	2.5
6	Texas	90.5	3.5
7	LSU	87.5	3
8	Oregon	86	3.5
9	USC	86	3
10	Alabama	85.5	3.5
11	Texas A&M	85	2
12	Florida	84.5	2
13	Mississippi	83.5	3.5
14	Texas Tech	83	3.5
15	Oklahoma	82.5	3
16	Penn State	82	2.5
17	Tennessee	81	2.5
18	BYU	79.5	3.5
19	Utah	79.5	2.5
20	Louisville	79	3.5
21	Auburn	78.5	2
22	Missouri	78.5	3.5
23	SMU	78	3.5
24	UCLA	78	1.5
25	Kansas State	77.5	3
26	Michigan	77	2.5
27	Virginia	77	2
28	Nebraska	76.5	2
29	Pittsburgh	76.5	2.5
30	Houston	76	2
31	South Carolina	76	2.5
32	Virginia Tech	76	2
33	Washington	76	3.5
34	Iowa	75	3.5
35	Mississippi State	75	2
36	Arizona	74.5	3
37	Boise State	74	3.5
38	Kentucky	73.5	2
39	Illinois	72.5	2.5
40	Vanderbilt	72.5	2.5
41	Arizona State	72	2
42	Duke	72	2.5
43	Florida State	71.5	2.5
44	TCU	71.5	2.5
45	Wisconsin	71.5	2
46	Baylor	70.5	1.5
47	Oklahoma State	70.5	2
48	Clemson	69.5	2.5
49	Kansas	69.5	2.5
50	Northwestern	69.5	1.5
51	UCF	69.5	2
52	Georgia Tech	69	2
53	North Carolina State	69	2.5
54	Wake Forest	69	2
55	Cincinnati	68.5	1.5
56	Maryland	68.5	2
57	Minnesota	68.5	2.5
58	Memphis	68	2.5
59	West Virginia	68	2
60	Colorado	67	2.5
61	Iowa State	67	2.5
62	Michigan State	67	1.5
63	North Carolina	67	2
64	North Dakota State	67	3.5
65	Arkansas	66	1.5
66	California	66	2
67	San Diego State	65.5	2
68	Syracuse	65.5	2.5
69	Fresno State	65	2
70	New Mexico	65	2
71	UTSA	65	3.5
72	Purdue	64	1
73	Stanford	63.5	1.5
74	UNLV	63	2.5
75	Western Michigan	62.5	3.5
76	Air Force	62	2
77	Boston College	62	2
78	James Madison	62	3.5
79	Navy	61.5	2.5
80	South Florida	61.5	3
81	Tulane	61.5	2.5
82	East Carolina	61	2
83	Army	60.5	2.5
84	Oregon State	60	3.5
85	Texas State	60	2
86	North Texas	59.5	2.5
87	Rutgers	59.5	2
88	Tulsa	58.5	1
89	Washington State	58.5	3
90	Delaware	58	1
91	Appalachian State	57.5	2
92	Colorado State	57.5	2
93	Florida Atlantic	57.5	1.5
94	Old Dominion	57.5	1.5
95	Toledo	57.5	3.5
96	Louisiana-Lafayette	57	2
97	Troy	57	3
98	Arkansas State	56.5	2.5
99	Hawai’i	56.5	3
100	Louisiana Tech	56.5	2
101	Nevada	56.5	1
102	Utah State	56.5	3
103	Florida International	56	2
104	Georgia Southern	56	3.5
105	Jacksonville State	56	3.5
106	Marshall	56	3.5
107	Miami (Ohio)	56	3.5
108	Liberty	55.5	2.5
109	Temple	55.5	2
110	Connecticut	55	3
111	Kennesaw State	54	2.5
112	South Alabama	54	2
113	Ohio	53.5	3.5
114	San Jose State	53	2.5
115	Coastal Carolina	52.5	2
116	Western Kentucky	52	3
117	Wyoming	52	2
118	Georgia State	51.5	1
119	Middle Tennessee	51	1.5
120	Sam Houston State	50.5	2
121	UAB	50.5	2.5
122	Eastern Michigan	50	2.5
123	New Mexico State	50	2.5
124	Rice	49.5	3
125	Missouri State	47.5	2
126	Central Michigan	47	3
127	Southern Mississippi	47	2
128	UTEP	47	1
129	Kent State	46.5	1
130	Akron	46	2
131	Buffalo	46	2
132	Northern Illinois	46	1.5
133	Bowling Green	45	2
134	Ball State	44	3
135	Louisiana-Monroe	44	2
136	Massachusetts	43.5	1
137	Charlotte	41.5	1
138	Sacramento State	40.5	2

Week 3 PR Adjustments

Up: Miami (FL) +1, Louisville +1, Virginia +1, Oklahoma State +2.5, App State +3, Virginia Tech +2, Kansas State +1.5, UCF +1.5, Duke +1.5, Mississippi State +4.5, North Texas +2, Delaware +2.5, Boise State +2.5, FIU +1.5, Sam Houston State +3, Middle Tennessee +2.5, Georgia State +3.5, UCLA +3.5, Florida Atlantic +2.5, Iowa State +1.5, Auburn +3.5, Oregon State +3.5, Utah +2.5, Florida +2, Nebraska +1.5, Air Force +1.5, Houston +1.5, North Carolina +1, Western Michigan +2.5

Down: Rutgers -3.5, Oregon -4, Oklahoma -1.5, Old Dominion -2.5, Army -2.5, Washington State -3, Western Kentucky -1.5, Washington -3, Minnesota -2.5, UNLV -3.5, Buffalo -1.5, Bowling Green -2, Marshall -2.5, Kennesaw State -1.5, Clemson -3.5, Navy -4.5 (adj. + Woodson inj), Iowa -3, Southern Miss -2.5, Ohio State -1.5, Arkansas -2.5, Central Michigan -4.5, Liberty -3.5, Northern Illinois -1.5, Texas A&M -1.5, Texas State -2, Wyoming -2.5, South Carolina -2, Texas Tech -3.5, Vanderbilt -2.5, Florida State -2.5, Rice -2, Sacramento State -6

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Mississippi State +4.5: Major market correction here. I had Minnesota favored and clearly that was the wrong side. Big test for both Miss State and South Carolina this week.

Oregon State +3.5: I was on the Beavers last week and have really taken note of starting QB Braden Atkinson, the Mercer transfer. Play selection was a big part of it, but the Beavs did outgain Texas Tech by more than two yards per play.

UCLA +3.5: Another bump for the Bruins, as the market lined up with them and those who moved the number were on the right side of it.

Auburn +3.5: In Alex Golesh I trust. It was only Southern Miss, but that was a demolition.

Georgia State +3.5: The Panthers are significantly better on offense this season. They went on the road against Kennesaw State and racked up 7.4 YPP.

Sacramento State -6: It is clear that this is the worst team in FBS and I adjusted them to reflect that.

Central Michigan -4.5: Massive preseason whiff by me thinking that the Chips would be a pretty good team. Without Joe Labas and the threat of a pass, teams are not respecting Angel Flores’ throwing ability and they’re doing nothing on offense as a result.

Navy -4.5: Both a market correction and an adjustment with QB Braxton Woodson out with a sprained ankle. The backup came in and played better than he did, but he has a ton of experience and seemed better suited to fill the huge cleats of Blake Horvath.

Oregon -4: Yeesh. What the hell was that, Dan Lanning?

UNLV -3.5: Yeesh. What the hell was that, Dan Mullen?

Rutgers -3.5: I gave the Scarlet Knights a shot at redemption against Boston College and learned my lesson.

Clemson -3.5: Down go the Tigers again. Just a putrid offensive performance against Georgia Southern and Chris Vizzina, who somehow won this QB competition, left hurt.

Texas Tech -3.5: I reserve the right to change my mind on this team, but right now, it looks like they’re really missing last season’s impact players and you can see why they wanted Brendan Sorsby over Will Hammond.

Liberty -3.5: Nearly losing to Gardner-Webb feels like rock bottom for Jamey Chadwell and the Flames.

My Week 3 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away	Home	Line
9/17	Syracuse	Pitt	-13.5
9/18	Miami (FL)	Wake Forest	+20
	Houston	Texas Tech	-10.5
9/19	Coastal Carolina	Delaware	-6.5
	Arizona State	Kansas (N – London)	+2.5
	Buffalo	Penn State	-38.5
	Kent State	Ohio State	-48.5
	North Carolina	Clemson	-5
	Akron	Minnesota	-25
	Tulane	Kansas State	-19
	Georgia	Arkansas	+23
	Bowling Green	Iowa State	-24.5
	North Texas	Texas State	-2.5
	Eastern Michigan	Wisconsin	-23.5
	NC State	Vanderbilt	-6
	Troy	Missouri	-25
	Wyoming	Central Michigan	+2
	Temple	Toledo	-5.5
	SMU	Louisville	-4.5
	Miami (OH)	Cincinnati (N – NFL Stad. 1 pt HFA)	-13.5
	UTEP	Michigan	-32.5
	USC	Rutgers	+24.5
	Florida State	Alabama	-17.5
	Kentucky	Texas A&M	-13.5
	Utah State	Utah	-25.5
	Ball State	Liberty	-14
	Stanford	Duke	-11
	Western Kentucky	Indiana	-43
	Louisiana Tech	Baylor	-15.5
	Mississippi State	South Carolina	-3.5
	East Carolina	Old Dominion	+2
	FIU	FAU	-3
	Charlotte	App State	-18
	Marshall	Missouri State	+6.5
	Georgia State	UCF	-20
	Georgia Southern	Jacksonville State	-3.5
	Nevada	Middle Tennessee	+4
	Ohio	South Alabama	-2.5
	Western Michigan	Rice	+10
	Florida	Auburn	+4
	UConn	Southern Miss	+6
	West Virginia	Virginia (N – Charlotte)	-9
	Virginia Tech	Maryland	+5.5
	Colorado	Northwestern	-4
	New Mexico	Oklahoma	-20.5
	BYU	Colorado State	+20
	LSU	Ole Miss	+0.5
	Michigan State	Notre Dame	-29
	Kennesaw State	Tennessee	-29.5
	Arkansas State	TCU	-17.5
	UTSA	Texas	-29
	UAB	Louisiana	-8.5
	James Madison	San Diego State	-5.5
	Northern Illinois	Arizona	-31.5
	North Dakota State	Sacramento State	+24.5
	Fresno State	San Jose State	+9.5
	Purdue	UCLA	-15.5

Games to consider:

Kansas +6 (+2.5) vs. Arizona State: Might stay away here since the game is in London, but it’s been a very tough start to the season for the Sun Devils.

Vanderbilt -4 (-6) vs. NC State: I think Vandy’s getting punished a little but too much for last week. Delaware’s actually had two solid data points thus far. I did adjust the Commodores a bit, but not sure I’m wholeheartedly on board with the downgrade.

Louisville -1.5 (-4.5) vs. SMU: Scary game with Jeff Brohm, but Lincoln Kienholz has put up nice numbers in this offense thus far.

East Carolina +3 (-2) at Old Dominion: I’m really down on Old Dominion. Level of competition has been high, and so has East Carolina’s, but Quinn Henicle is not a strong replacement for Colton Joseph.

FIU +7 (+3) at Florida Atlantic: Very impressed with FIU through two games. Willie Simmons is doing work in Miami. Maybe Florida is just a juggernaut and I shouldn’t hold Week 1 against FAU when I backed them. We’ll see here, I guess.

San Diego State -1.5 (-5.5) vs. James Madison: Long trek for the Dukes. Probably factored in. They scored 87 points against Wagner last week to let out some frustration, but they were not very impressive against a Liberty team that nearly lost to Gardner-Webb. Maybe it was just an off night.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.