Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 14, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Under the total is 19-4-2 (+14.55 units) with starter Reid Detmers at home versus opponents with a losing record in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-LAA (o/u at 7.5)
Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 221-168 (+27.92 units, ROI: 7.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-208 at COL)
BALTIMORE letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. Toronto: 13-22 record (37.1%) for -8.10 units, ROI: -23.1%
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+103 at NYM)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are just over the profitability line at 206-167 for -1.21 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+122 at STL), LA ANGELS (-106 vs SEA)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 150-224 start for -28.46 units (-7.6% ROI) after losing about 39 units over the 3 months.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+170 vs SD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 107-57 for -19.52 units, ROI -11.9%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-220 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (-208 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 301-368 for -28.87 units, and comes off a rough four-week stretch, giving back over 17.5 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+113 at CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+122 at STL), LA ANGELS (-106 vs SEA)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 249-177 for +39.32 units, an ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-124 vs BAL), NY YANKEES (-126 at MIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 178-209 start for -45.15 units (ROI -11.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 78-101 for -22.19 units and a solid ROI of -12.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – MIAMI (+110 at AZ)
3+ games – DETROIT (+114 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 160-184 for +0.24 units. However, it has lost -13.03 units over the last two months.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+170 vs SD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 536-428 for +44.85 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+114 at TOR), SAN DIEGO (-208 at COL)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 265-198 for +24.44 units and an ROI of 5.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-126 at MIN), SEATTLE (-114 at LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -104 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 163-203 for -37.91 units and an ROI of -10.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+105 vs NYY)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 464-396 but for -93.08 units and an ROI of -10.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-156 vs CWS), NY METS (-124 vs BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 480-427 record for +46.44 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+114 at TOR), SAN DIEGO (-208 at COL), MIAMI (+110 at AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2238-2120 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -277.03 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-156 vs CWS)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2303-2897 (44.3%) for -281.31 units and a -5.4% ROI since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at CLE), BALTIMORE (+103 at NYM), NY YANKEES (-126 at MIN)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on an 82-154 skid (-38.32 units, ROI: -16.2%).
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 111-195 (-61.97 units, ROI: -20.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 48-80 in their last 128 tries (-14.18 units, ROI: -11.1%).
Systems Match (FADE): COLORADO (+170 vs SD)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams on 6+ game losing streaks playing in less-competitive divisional games (-150 or more favorite/+150 or more underdog) have had their totals go Over at a 68-53-8 (56.2%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SD-COL (o/u at 11)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams that have won their last three games and are road favorites versus an opponent with a losing record have gone 118-47 (+35.96 units, ROI: 21.8%) in their last 165 tries.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-208 at COL)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 221-168 (+27.92 units, ROI: 7.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-208 at COL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 630-632 for +7.74 units, good for +0.6% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA +113 (+21 diff), LA ANGELS -106 (+20), SAN FRANCISCO +122 (+11)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ARIZONA -132 (+25 diff), NY YANKEES -126 (+22)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 125-99 for +13.60 units and an ROI of 6.1%.
TODAY’S MATCH: MIA-AZ UNDER 8.5 (-0.8)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (90-59) at (902) CINCINNATI (70-79)
Trend: LAD is 58-84 (-31.80 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at CIN)
Trend: Tarik Skubal’s teams are 32-13 (+9.86 units) in his last 45 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-226 at CIN)
(903) ATLANTA (88-62) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (83-67)
Trend: Under the total is 18-7-1 (+10.30 units) when ATL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-CHC (o/u at 9.5)
(905) SAN FRANCISCO (62-88) at (906) ST LOUIS (74-76)
Trend: SF is 5-17 in the last 22 starts by Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+122 at STL)
(911) CHICAGO-AL (76-73) at (912) CLEVELAND (76-74)
Trend: Over the total is 57-31-1 (+22.90 units) in CWS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 7)
(913) DETROIT (70-79) at (914) TORONTO (75-75)
Trend: Under the total is 17-6 (+10.45 units) with starter Troy Melton in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-TOR (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Jose Soriano’s teams are 3-11 (-12.96 units) in his last 14 home starts versus non-AL West opponents with a losing record
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-138 vs DET)
(915) NEW YORK-AL (86-63) at (916) MINNESOTA (70-79)
Trend: Dean Kremer’s teams are 19-7 (+13.20 units) in his last 26 starts vs AL East opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+105 vs NYY)
Trend: Over the total is 45-29-9 (+13.10 units) when MIN is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYY-MIN (o/u at 8)
(917) SEATTLE (70-80) at (918) LOS ANGELES-AL (56-93)
Trend: LAA is 5-3 (+4.20 units) in the last eight starts by Reid Detmers vs Seattle
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-106 vs SEA)
Trend: Under the total is 19-4-2 (+14.55 units) with starter Reid Detmers at home versus opponents with a losing record in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-LAA (o/u at 7.5)
(919) BALTIMORE (72-78) at (920) NEW YORK-NL (69-80)
Trend: BAL is 18-7 (+11.91 units) with starter Brandon Young since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+103 at NYM)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #6: Chi White Sox at Cleveland, Mon 9/14-Wed 9/16
Trend: Under the total is 22-10 (68.8%, +10.99 units) in the last 32 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 34.3%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 7)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-226 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (-208 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-124 vs BAL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-124 vs BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-136 vs ATL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ATLANTA
Momentum after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 23-17 (57.5%) +4.02 units, ROI: 10.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+113 at CHC)
BALTIMORE
Letdown after series vs. TORONTO: 13-22 (37.1%) -8.10 units, ROI: -23.1%
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+103 at NYM)
CHICAGO CUBS
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 24-14 (63.2%) +9.26 units, ROI: 24.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-136 vs ATL)
SAN DIEGO
Momentum after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 23-15 (60.5%) +8.84 units, ROI: 23.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-208 at COL)
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